World cup 2018 campaign

[George Parr]

Well we'll definitely fail to get anything in Lithuania while England, Slovakia and Slovenia will absolute horse them.

The 0-0 draw the last time we visited Lithuania really pissed me off. Levein came away chirping about a decent point and a clean sheet at a difficult venue whilst anyone with half a brain concluded that we'd screwed up yet again against a toilet side.

6 points off Lithuania in the World Cup campaign is the only acceptable return.

[Mr Bairn]

Well we'll definitely fail to get anything in Lithuania while England, Slovakia and Slovenia will absolute horse them.

Spot on.

Here's what will happen, England will beat everyone home and away apart from Slovakia who will take a point in Bratislava. We'll take 3 off Slovakia and 4 off Slovenia, only to screw it up when we visit Kaunas and finish 3rd.

[Gordopolis]

re player retirements: Maloney has announced he has no plans to retire:

http://m.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/34504027

despite some appetite for fast - tracking three or four young players in, I think we're likely to start the next campaign with almost exactly the same squad.

[effeffsee_the2nd]

Spot on.

Here's what will happen, England will beat everyone home and away apart from Slovakia who will take a point in Bratislava. We'll take 3 off Slovakia and 4 off Slovenia, only to screw it up when we visit Kaunas and finish 3rd.

Can I just remind everyone that Malta is a 4 hour flight away and its still in the mid 30s in September. That has " a point away from home at a difficult place" written all over it.

Fasten you're seatbelts lads, were quickly going nowhere

[Gordopolis]

Can I just remind everyone that Malta is a 4 hour flight away and its still in the mid 30s in September. That has " a point away from home at a difficult place" written all over it.

Fasten you're seatbelts lads, were quickly going nowhere

But do they have a Burger King in the airport?

[forameus]

The 0-0 draw the last time we visited Lithuania really pissed me off. Levein came away chirping about a decent point and a clean sheet at a difficult venue whilst anyone with half a brain concluded that we'd screwed up yet again against a toilet side.

6 points off Lithuania in the World Cup campaign is the only acceptable return.

The only good thing to say about that day was that it was only the beginning of Levein's mission to become the most unlikable manager we've ever had.

Things are going to look a lot different in a year for all parties. England could have gone on a very good run in the Euros by the time we start qualifying again - maybe they've even sold their soul to Lucifer himself and won it. Or they could have absolutely stunk the place out again. Either way, we could be facing any kind of team. Slovakia and Slovenia - who are probably our rivals for 2nd - could look completely different, and we ourselves could do (although I can't see many wholesale changes.

The bottom line is that this is one of the kindest groups we've had in recent memory. We could finish 2nd - hell, we could finish 1st if we can feed off the pressure that England will be under (note, I in no way believe that will happen. England will top our group, 99% certainty). Or we could finish 3rd or 4th. I feel more comfortable with our chances this time around than I did before the Euros qualifying, despite the extra available spots there.

Looking at the fixtures, we have the best possible start. If we're sitting on 6 points then, our away match against Slovakia will show us where we're likely to finish. 9 points has us looking very good. 6 is not great, 7 would do. After that it's a double header against England sandwiching a trip to Slovenia. In fact, looking on, we've got a double header with Malta and Lithuania later on. The fixtures fall quite nicely.

[HibeeJibee]

Sorry - you feel more confident about a group with 1 automatic place + 1 playoff (but maybe 0), than a group with 3 automatic places or 2+1 playoff?

I appreciate England/Slovakia/Slovenia/Lithuania/Malta is a touch easier than Germany/Poland/Eire/Georgia/Gibraltar, but you're having a laugh.

[forameus]

Sorry - you feel more confident about a group with 1 automatic place + 1 playoff (but maybe 0), than a group with 3 automatic places or 2+1 playoff?

I appreciate England/Slovakia/Slovenia/Lithuania/Malta is a touch easier than Germany/Poland/Eire/Georgia/Gibraltar, but you're having a laugh.

Maybe it was slight hyperbole, but there were two and a half spots in there for us, and at the start of the campaign it looked pretty much nailed on that Germany would take one, and Poland would probably get the other. Now we have one and a half, and I'd fancy us to get more from Slovakia than I thought we'd get from Poland.

And in two years time, I'll probably be proved completely 100% wrong. Bookmark it.

[TrueDiamond]

Seems that many of the posters on here have learned their football knowledge through Football Manager and consequently have no idea about reality.

If Strachan stays on then the vast majority of the squad will be as now. There will be one or two additions over the 2 years from now til end of 2018 qualifying. There will be no radical overhaul. And nor should there be. Despite what's being suggested, we do not have buckets of talented youngsters just waiting to break through. At best we have one or two who potentially could make a difference at international level, but certainly no more than that.

For those of us of a more mature generation, we have seen umpteen candidates for the 'next greatest thing' and very few have ever come close to even occasionally fulfilling that prophecy. There is no evidence that the next group will be any different.

If we did get a new manager and he decided to radically overhaul the squad, then we would have to write off the next 2 qualifying campaigns whilst the inexperienced replacements struggled to make an impact in International Football.

The harsh reality is that our players, at the moment, are simply not good enough at basic skills required to win comfortably in international football.

Having said all that, I do not believe that we are as bad as many are making us out to be. We certainly ain't world beaters, but we are not the fodder some fans are suggesting we are.

We went 20 years without qualifying for world cups and only qualified for our first Euros in 1992 whilst other so called minnows qualified and even won these competitions (it wasn't all that long ago that Belgium,Holland,Czech Rep, Sweden,Denmark,Norway for example were all considered shoe in wins). Football is cyclic, our time will come again, as these so called minnows have prospered and drop away in cycles.

I guess many of the posters are ones who can't or only vaguely remember France 98, and that is why they are so despondent. Hang in there. Our time will come when it's our time. Nothing will change that.

[Monkey Tennis]

Seems that many of the posters on here have learned their football knowledge through Football Manager and consequently have no idea about reality.

If Strachan stays on then the vast majority of the squad will be as now. There will be one or two additions over the 2 years from now til end of 2018 qualifying. There will be no radical overhaul. And nor should there be. Despite what's being suggested, we do not have buckets of talented youngsters just waiting to break through. At best we have one or two who potentially could make a difference at international level, but certainly no more than that.

For those of us of a more mature generation, we have seen umpteen candidates for the 'next greatest thing' and very few have ever come close to even occasionally fulfilling that prophecy. There is no evidence that the next group will be any different.

If we did get a new manager and he decided to radically overhaul the squad, then we would have to write off the next 2 qualifying campaigns whilst the inexperienced replacements struggled to make an impact in International Football.

The harsh reality is that our players, at the moment, are simply not good enough at basic skills required to win comfortably in international football.

Having said all that, I do not believe that we are as bad as many are making us out to be. We certainly ain't world beaters, but we are not the fodder some fans are suggesting we are.

We went 20 years without qualifying for world cups and only qualified for our first Euros in 1992 whilst other so called minnows qualified and even won these competitions (it wasn't all that long ago that Belgium,Holland,Czech Rep, Sweden,Denmark,Norway for example were all considered shoe in wins). Football is cyclic, our time will come again, as these so called minnows have prospered and drop away in cycles.

I guess many of the posters are ones who can't or only vaguely remember France 98, and that is why they are so despondent. Hang in there. Our time will come when it's our time. Nothing will change that.

Some odd stuff in there.

The most we went without qualifying was sixteen years and one of them involved losing a play-off to a team who reached that year's World Cup final. The team in question is one from your list of historical "shoe-ins". Holland too, despite this campaign, have been a major force for well in excess of forty years.

Our failure to reach a Euro finals until 1992 owed a great deal to it only becoming a competition that admitted even 8 teams to a finals tournament only in 1980.

Your 'maturity' appears to afford you as much confusion as it does, perspective.

[G-MAN]

The only good thing to say about that day was that it was only the beginning of Levein's mission to become the most unlikable manager we've ever had.

Things are going to look a lot different in a year for all parties. England could have gone on a very good run in the Euros by the time we start qualifying again - maybe they've even sold their soul to Lucifer himself and won it. Or they could have absolutely stunk the place out again. Either way, we could be facing any kind of team. Slovakia and Slovenia - who are probably our rivals for 2nd - could look completely different, and we ourselves could do (although I can't see many wholesale changes.

The bottom line is that this is one of the kindest groups we've had in recent memory. We could finish 2nd - hell, we could finish 1st if we can feed off the pressure that England will be under (note, I in no way believe that will happen. England will top our group, 99% certainty). Or we could finish 3rd or 4th. I feel more comfortable with our chances this time around than I did before the Euros qualifying, despite the extra available spots there.

Looking at the fixtures, we have the best possible start. If we're sitting on 6 points then, our away match against Slovakia will show us where we're likely to finish. 9 points has us looking very good. 6 is not great, 7 would do. After that it's a double header against England sandwiching a trip to Slovenia. In fact, looking on, we've got a double header with Malta and Lithuania later on. The fixtures fall quite nicely.

Remember there is the farce that we could finish 2nd and still not get through. Only 8 of 9 runners up get to a play off.

[kevthedee]

Done:

Maloney

Greer

D.Fletcher

New players to be drafted in:

Shinnie

Armstrong

Gauld

Christie

Not really sure what other changes are in the offing tbh. The future is not exactly bright

Gauld has done what to deserve a chance.

[HibeeJibee]

Remember there is the farce that we could finish 2nd and still not get through. Only 8 of 9 runners up get to a play off.

It's not really a "farce". Europe gets 13 slots and decides to have 9 groups of 5/6, so someone must miss-out. It is unfortunate for the team in question.

[forameus]

Remember there is the farce that we could finish 2nd and still not get through. Only 8 of 9 runners up get to a play off.

Very true. Like HJ says, I wouldn't call it a farce. It's just unfortunate. Or not really, as if you're the 9th out of those, then you've probably had a pretty shit group stage compared to the other sides. Denmark missed out in 2014 ending up 9 points behind Greece at the top of the 2nd placed table.

[John Lambies Doos]

It's not really a "farce". Europe gets 13 slots and decides to have 9 groups of 5/6, so someone must miss-out. It is unfortunate for the team in question.

It will be Scotland

[HibeeJibee]

Obviously there can be vagaries with running rankings between groups.

Hungary may qualify automatically for Euro 2016 as best third place; but before you take off results against whoever finishes bottom, remarkably they are very likely to be worst (except for Denmark in the 5-team group) .

Even switching to 7 groups of 7/8 wouldn't make any difference - you'd have no playoffs, granted, but would simply have the worst second place team missing-out completely.

[Monkey Tennis]

Didn't we qualify automatically for France 98 by virtue of being highest second placed team or something, enabling us to avoid the play-offs that the other 2nd placed sides had to endure?

Another instance perhaps of people saying we'll be typically unlucky in such a scenario, where the reality is that we've actually benefited from something similar before?

[RandomGuy.]

Gauld has done what to deserve a chance.

Get a move to a European Giant?

[TrueDiamond]

Some odd stuff in there.The most we went without qualifying was sixteen years and one of them involved losing a play-off to a team who reached that year's World Cup final. The team in question is one from your list of historical "shoe-ins". Holland too, despite this campaign, have been a major force for well in excess of forty years.Our failure to reach a Euro finals until 1992 owed a great deal to it only becoming a competition that admitted even 8 teams to a finals tournament only in 1980.Your 'maturity' appears to afford you as much confusion as it does, perspective.

It's interesting that you think that my points afford me confusion. I don't quite see that. I could concede that 74-58 is not 20, but that is a failure in arithmetic and not confusion. (I could be as pedantic as yourself, and point out that 54-30 is 24 years, but that would be even more pedantic).

You concentrate on the choice of teams who I described as shoe ins, preferring to accentuate results that were unusual rather than the point being made. The team you refer to did nothing for the next 14 years and then nothing for the next 18 years. (No I haven't checked my maths 62-76-94. No doubt you will)

All this whilst ignoring the main points of my post.

I'll summarise.

a. Football is cyclic.

b. Scotland's current players will not be suddenly replaced by young world beaters.

c. We can only worry about what we can affect and influence. Everything else will see to itself in its own good way.

[Jamaldo]

I've done some (sort-of) calculations, and the way I see it we're going to need around 20 points to even be in with a shout of 2nd place.

These are the points we absolutely HAVE to get:

6 against Malta home and away.

6 against Lithuania home and away.

A win against Slovenia at home and at least a point away.

At least something against Slovakia in either match.

Points that would we need if other results in the group were to go ski-whiff (i.e. England dropping an uncharacteristic amount of points a la Germany)

A win against Slovakia at Hampden.

Probably a point against England at home but if they play like they have in Euro 2016 qualifying then this is simply a bonus.

A win in Slovenia.

As for other opportunities for points, if we can get anything in Bratislava and London then it will be massive. Let's not dress this up. Slovakia are comfortably better than us and anyone who thinks otherwise is going to have explain their view. I understand the last two campaigns before this one they were pretty atrocious but they have better technical players than us and the two matches against them will be very difficult.

We can not allow Slovenia to take four or more points of of us. That will kill our campaign.

It sounds mad but the away match against Lithuania is probably the first big test, not in terms of the opposition, but in terms of our ability to actually take the game to one of these eastern European sides that we struggle badly against this. Do not treat them with anymore respect than they deserve. They were utterly hopeless against England tonight.