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When will indyref2 happen?

Indyref2  

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  1. 1. When will indyref 2 take place?



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I'm fairly certain the no voters who voted remain are the largest group of the four, however I think it's a leap to suggest that remain voters are suddenly going to become Indy supporters purely because of Brexit. I think a lot of yes supporters view independence as being an outward looking view whilst no voters view it as insular and nationalistic. Convincing that group who want to be part of both unions that Indy isn't like that I think would be crucial to gaining those votes but that's a difficult thing to do.

I did.

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7 hours ago, Baxter Parp said:

She just wants to devote herself full time to abusing people who dare question British rule over Scotland - gie her a break!

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SNP Conference this weekend. Will be interesting to hear Nicola's comments on any future Independence referendum. She will need a big speech as there is a lot of frustration with the limbo period we seem to be in at the moment. 

She's a popular leader, but not mentioning indyref2 date and hardly even mentioning Independence itself lately is not going to go down well with some.  I'm not suggesting a power struggle for a new leader is on the cards, but I'm wondering how long she can shelve the date?   

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How can she predict when the polls will be favourable?

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I would be surprised and disappointed if the focus is another referendum date. I imagine she'll focus on policy to rejuvenate the voters that didn't turn out in June.

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Sturgeon has to be getting this thing ready to roll. The view was to wait and see what Brexit offered. Well, Brexit is going to be a complete fucking fiasco. Both Labour and Conservative leaders have thrown themselves behind delivering it and f**k the consequences. Ifthere is a decent deal by March 2019 I'll eat my hat. In any case the economy will be fucked long before then. 

Get the car started, it's time we were away. 

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The momentum all just seems to be sapping away. I don't think it'd even be as close as last time.

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These things are difficult to read, simply because so much can change in politics over a relatively short period of time. I don't think there will ever be a point where we can be 'certain' of winning a referendum, so there will always be an element of risk. Having said that, if a vote were held tomorrow, I would expect a similar result to 2014; although this does mean 'Yes' is starting from a much higher base than last time.

If and when it does come, hopefully we avoid a 'Tory austerity is fine as long as Scotland votes for it' campaign. A depressing line I've seen from a small number of Yessers lately, and one that should be avoided. 'Nothing much will change' won't cut it either, IMO. 

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7 hours ago, NotThePars said:

I wouldn't be certain of winning a referendum at this point.

Neither would I but if Scotland can't self determine in the current climate I can't foresee circumstances where "at this point" would be the right one. 

Brexit won't be re-voted in my view. It's politically crippling for senior politicians in England.  If Scots are content to disappear down the toilet for the sake of the UK as a framework then they'll never vote in a majority for independence. So we should get it done and then crack on with whatever hand is dealt. 

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38 minutes ago, HTG said:

Neither would I but if Scotland can't self determine in the current climate I can't foresee circumstances where "at this point" would be the right one.

This is how I feel too. Although I see the momentum thing is a bit misleading. A proper well run campaign can turn things around. I'm not confident that we'd see a proper well run campaign. We've seen things too easy going twice in a row now.

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I'm not majorly concerned. Majority of polling shows Indy solid in the mid-40s,  as well as showing pluralities in favour of another poll "within 5 years" of the first.  I reckon we'll get one before 2021, and Robertson tilted that in his speech before Sturgeon's last week. The majority of'15 SNP voters who didn't vote SNP in '17 didn't flock to other, Unionist parties - mostly they stayed at home. So for me, it wasn't a backlash against the idea of a second referendum, but perception is king, and any drop in seats was always going to be seen as a rebuke to the SNP's demands. Yet voting patterns don't necessarily bear that out.

Right now, the SNP are right to focus on big eye catching domestic issues. They are a political party and government, rather than simply a movement after all. They need to see of the danger on both their flanks, while trying to make people's lives better. Things like the investment bank and the publically owned energy company - as well as the portended, hopefully progressive changes to the income tax bands are good for both in showing a progressive vision for Scotland.

Brexit needs about another year to finally out itself as the absolute clusterfuck it is. The SNP will have one eye on having to fight another GE in that time frame as well. Then, we should be looking for a referendum around '19 or '20.

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There is a independence conference at the Usher Hall in Edinburgh on the 4th November which is near sold out. I really hope this is the start of a proper campaign rather than another talking shop.

The SNP doesn't need to be directly involved in this at the moment (albeit Alex Salmond is one of the main speakers) and they can avoid the "get on with the day job" criticism that helped the Unionist parties in the recent elections.

It's organised by the Scottish Independence Convention and is part of the wider YES movement. I would say this is definitely the way to go to start the indyref2 campaign.  We could be ready and have the momentum by the time the SNP government pull the indyref2 trigger  

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The  next campaign needs to destroy the pro union camp by highlighting the lies spouted by "better together:lol:" in 2014.

For example ......remember these whoppers.

 

 

doomgloom.jpg

dolan_gmb-300x275.jpg

DJEIyP0XcAAa-E5.jpg

Sad and worrying times for those in the yards. Betrayed again by the unionist labour movement.

Edited by git-intae-thum

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The  next campaign needs to destroy the pro union camp by highlighting the lies spouted by "better together:lol:" in 2014.
For example ......remember these whoppers.
 
 
doomgloom.jpg.5927232e20d45f3472fabedd91caddfe.jpg
dolan_gmb-300x275.jpg.e35d4f015d36f084044bc53db7716afb.jpg
DJEIyP0XcAAa-E5.jpg.a3b74074700d7b683868942f92b7bdea.jpg
Sad and worrying times for those in the yards. Betrayed again by the unionist labour movement.


Imagine voting no because of this. Utter minterage

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The  next campaign needs to destroy the pro union camp by highlighting the lies spouted by "better together:lol:" in 2014.
For example ......remember these whoppers.
 
 
doomgloom.jpg.5927232e20d45f3472fabedd91caddfe.jpg
dolan_gmb-300x275.jpg.e35d4f015d36f084044bc53db7716afb.jpg
DJEIyP0XcAAa-E5.jpg.a3b74074700d7b683868942f92b7bdea.jpg
Sad and worrying times for those in the yards. Betrayed again by the unionist labour movement.

Hope wee Henry Wilson gets his jotters.

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