When will indyref2 happen?

[Gaz FFC]

On 11/12/2017 at 08:14, HTG said:

Sturgeon has to ask the question. If the last 4 or 5 months have taught us nothing else, it's already clear that Brexit is going to be a disaster for us - and particularly for Scotland. If she doesn't hold a referendum by 2020, she's not doingher job. And if, against a backdrop of the likes of May and Davis at the helm, Scotland still votes to stay in the UK, then it will take years for the demographic to change. There wouldn't be the clamour there is for another referendum were it not for Brexit. I can't conceive of another political catastrophe of this magnitude coming along for a while - apart maybe from a united Ireland.  

Although I would be gutted at losing another referendum if Scotland voted no 51% and yes 49% it would be difficult to ignore that in a very short period of time  a lot of people have  jumped ship.

I take hope that my mum changed from no to yes and 2 friends who voted no left the country 3 years ago and won't be inflicting their shitebag attitude on us.

Hard to see any reason a yes voter would flip to no given how shit the 40 months since have been.

Hard to also take better together serious after the whoppers they told in 2014. The media really have become a national laughing stock in recent years.

[Lurkst]

9 hours ago, Gaz FFC said:

Hard to see any reason a yes voter would flip to no given how shit the 40 months since have been.

If the referendum is centred on retaining EU membership I suspect some Yes / Leave voters might...

 

[NotThePars]

If the referendum is centred on retaining EU membership then I'm not sure that's going to be enough to motivate people to come out the polls. The SNP likely understand this after their lukewarm performance in the General Election and the budget is surely a sign that they might try and recapture some of the enthusiasm for a radical vision that existed in 2014.

[John Lambies Doos]

If the referendum is centred on retaining EU membership then I'm not sure that's going to be enough to motivate people to come out the polls. The SNP likely understand this after their lukewarm performance in the General Election and the budget is surely a sign that they might try and recapture some of the enthusiasm for a radical vision that existed in 2014.

Completely disagree, where there are certainly some leave 'yes' voters; take away the lure of continued EU citizenship; independence movement would be dead. NB: British citizenship would also remain as default; for all those born pre any indy date.

[NotThePars]

Completely disagree, where there are certainly some leave 'yes' voters; take away the lure of continued EU citizenship; independence movement would be dead. NB: British citizenship would also remain as default; for all those born pre any indy date.

You've misunderstood me. My point is that fighting a campaign purely on retaining EU membership won't bring out anywhere near the same numbers that turned out in 2014 to vote for independence. If the SNP, and wider movement, want to overcome the referendum hangover then they'll have to try and recapture the enthusiasm that people had in 2014 and I think there has to be a bit more than just continued membership of an institution most people are ambivalent about.

[Ad Lib]

If I had to guess now, I would say that there won't be another independence referendum for at least a decade and that if one were to be held within the next 5 years, the Yes side would lose it.

[Donathan]

What the SNP failed to understand is that the majority of voters care way, way more about their view on independence than their view on Brexit.

There are obviously four sunsets of those who voted in both referenda.


Yes/Remain: Obviously still going to be Yes.

No/Leave: Obviously still going to be No.

The other two groups are more interesting. Yes/Leave and No/Remain. The SNP went heavy after the latter group, and failed to bring them over (because they care more about staying in the U.K. than the EU) whilst the former had a more passionate Brexit stance and actually saw independence as a means to and end of “Scexit” from the EU. These people are now No voters as they’ve achieved their goal of getting out the EU.

[Colkitto]

At the end of the day support for independence hasn't dropped, in recent polls it's actually risen.

We don't need to win by a large margin, all we need to do is get another 4 or 5 percent to get over the winning line.  Brexit will be a factor as reality bites economically. 

We also have the worst UK government I have ever seen.  Independence is achievable with a referendum within the next 18 months - in fact it could be our best chance 

[Granny Danger]

14 minutes ago, Colkitto said:

At the end of the day support for independence hasn't dropped, in recent polls it's actually risen.

We don't need to win by a large margin, all we need to do is get another 4 or 5 percent to get over the winning line.  Brexit will be a factor as reality bites economically. 

We also have the worst UK government I have ever seen.  Independence is achievable with a referendum within the next 18 months - in fact it could be our best chance 

If it goes ahead in anything approaching a ‘hard Brexit’ form it will have huge implications for the whole of the UK.

I agree it will push folk towards the Independence route.  The only fly in the ointment may be the Spanish government playing down an independent Scotland joining the EU.

 

[Antlion]

10 minutes ago, Granny Danger said:

If it goes ahead in anything approaching a ‘hard Brexit’ form it will have huge implications for the whole of the UK.

I agree it will push folk towards the Independence route.  The only fly in the ointment may be the Spanish government playing down an independent Scotland joining the EU.

 

I reckon the hard border with Ireland resulting from a hard Brexit might put people off.

[NotThePars]

Polls may not directly translate into people turning out on the day. 4-5% is still a substantial number of people and if even 5% of those who turned out (potentially the first time) in 2014 then it gets exponentially more difficult. I'm not saying that it shouldn't be held before Brexit, I think it probably has to be held before 2021 but I'm not convinced on its success if it isn't developed beyond the EU issue.

[Glen Sannox]

Imagine having your life so hollow that you have to go onto a football forum to be called names to get attention. I'd feel sorry for this idiot if he weren't such an abhorrent fuckwit.

Well done Randy, it is a healthy trait to be self deprecating like that. That said, you’re maybe being a tad harsh on yourself.

[DrewDon]

What a zinger!!!! 

[welshbairn]

9 hours ago, Ad Lib said:

If I had to guess now, I would say that there won't be another independence referendum for at least a decade and that if one were to be held within the next 5 years, the Yes side would lose it.

The transition phase could be perfect timing if negotiations are going badly and the sounds from Brussels are friendly. Otherwise I'd agree, a lot of voters might have had enough of constitutional turmoil and risk.

[Thistle_do_nicely]

On something of a tangential note - given the meteoric rise of Bitcoin I can't help but think that at least considering a digital currency in an iScotland would be interesting. Depends on how long a timeline we're on until another indyref and how the existing cryptocurrencies fare in the meantime, but it's the type of thing that I think is well worth looking into.

I mean whether it could work is honestly the sort of thing that's well above my pay grade (off the top of my head I guess a digital currency that's being regulated by an iScotland removes some of the attraction of existing cryptocurrencies, not to mention Bitcoin itself is in all likelihood due for a massive correction soon.)

It'd maybe be a hard sell, not least to older generations - then again, maybe not so hard in circumstances where it's modelled correctly and other cryptocurrencies don't tank, coupled with the pound falling... regardless, I'd love to ask the question of those more ITK than I am of whether they think it'd be feasible. (edit: in lieu of those more ITK I suppose P&B will have to suffice  )

Edited December 19, 2017 by Thistle_do_nicely

[NotThePars]

Isn't bitcoin well on its way to bankrupting the world's power supply or something?

[welshbairn]

I don't think Scotland trying another Darien scheme would be a good sell for independence tbh.

[topcat(The most tip top)]

On something of a tangential note - given the meteoric rise of Bitcoin I can't help but think that at least considering a digital currency in an iScotland would be interesting. Depends on how long a timeline we're on until another indyref and how the existing cryptocurrencies fare in the meantime, but it's the type of thing that I think is well worth looking into, especially if it can help avert negative interest rates.
I mean whether it could work is honestly the sort of thing that's well above my pay grade (off the top of my head I guess a digital currency that's being regulated by an iScotland removes some of the attraction of existing cryptocurrencies, not to mention Bitcoin itself is in all likelihood due for a massive correction soon.)
It'd maybe be a hard sell, not least to older generations - then again, maybe not so hard in circumstances where it's modelled correctly and other cryptocurrencies don't tank, coupled with the pound falling... regardless, I'd love to ask the question of those more ITK than I am of whether they think it'd be feasible. (edit: in lieu of those more ITK I suppose P&B will have to suffice [emoji6] )

Quite possibly the most bonkers thing I’ve read this year

And this is a year when Donald Trump has been president

[NotThePars]

I'd fucking love it if we blew our next chance at independence by doing something as stupid as this.

[lichtgilphead]

4 hours ago, Thistle_do_nicely said:

On something of a tangential note - given the meteoric rise of Bitcoin I can't help but think that at least considering a digital currency in an iScotland would be interesting. Depends on how long a timeline we're on until another indyref and how the existing cryptocurrencies fare in the meantime, but it's the type of thing that I think is well worth looking into, especially if it can help avert negative interest rates.

I mean whether it could work is honestly the sort of thing that's well above my pay grade (off the top of my head I guess a digital currency that's being regulated by an iScotland removes some of the attraction of existing cryptocurrencies, not to mention Bitcoin itself is in all likelihood due for a massive correction soon.)

It'd maybe be a hard sell, not least to older generations - then again, maybe not so hard in circumstances where it's modelled correctly and other cryptocurrencies don't tank, coupled with the pound falling... regardless, I'd love to ask the question of those more ITK than I am of whether they think it'd be feasible. (edit: in lieu of those more ITK I suppose P&B will have to suffice  )

Using pebbles, seashells or root vegetables as our new indy currency would be just as sane. I would hope for an initial exchange rate of 4 parsnips to the euro, and build from there.