When will indyref2 happen?

[Lex]

Fundraising page for indyref2 on the SNP website down then...

Plug being pulled, won't be anything to see on this thread for five years at least.

[1320Lichtie]

Fundraising page for indyref2 on the SNP website down then...
Plug being pulled, won't be anything to see on this thread for five years at least.

Good.

If there was another one in the near future it would be the same result. This'll take time. Incidentally Labour look like they'll be giving your beloved Tories a shagging in 10 years time too after seeing the age breakdown of votes.

Poor Lex

[Lex]

6 minutes ago, 1320Lichtie said:

 

 

Good.

If there was another one in the near future it would be the same result. This'll take time. Incidentally Labour look like they'll be giving your beloved Tories a shagging in 10 years time too after seeing the age breakdown of votes.

Poor Lex

 

 

Yep I'm gutted.  How much time?  How long will a pro indy majority be retained in Holyrood?  Without that there's no referendum.  There were more votes for pro unionist parties than pro independence parties in Scotland last week.

As for Labour winning the election, meh.  Labour and Tory governments come and go, always have always will.  Change in the ruling party is good it's not to be feared.  I remember the fear amongst Tories in 1997 when Labour came in.  Turned out Tony Blair was one of the most right wing PM's we've ever had,

 

[ayrmad]

16 minutes ago, Lex said:

 

Yep I'm gutted.  How much time?  How long will a pro indy majority be retained in Holyrood?  Without that there's no referendum.  There were more votes for pro unionist parties than pro independence parties in Scotland last week.

As for Labour winning the election, meh.  Labour and Tory governments come and go, always have always will.  Change in the ruling party is good it's not to be feared.  I remember the fear amongst Tories in 1997 when Labour came in.  Turned out Tony Blair was one of the most right wing PM's we've ever had,

 

When the time is right for indyref2 the people will return a pro indy majority in Holyrood.

[Loondave1]

When the time is right for indyref2 the people will return a pro indy majority in Holyrood.

So probably never then Mystic Meg ?

[ayrmad]

Just now, Loondave1 said:

So probably never then Mystic Meg ?

It's inevitabe, when, who knows but it will happen.

[Lex]

1 minute ago, ayrmad said:

It's inevitabe, when, who knows but it will happen.

Why's it inevitable?

Keep reading that word.  Support for independence hasn't grown in the last 3 years despite several events happening that you'd think would cause it to grow.

[GTG_03]

2020 once people realise we're out the EU with no deal and all these deals with commonwealth countries fail to materialise.

[jmothecat]

Taking Remain votes in Scotland to be the same as endorsing Indy2 in the event of Brexit was just wishful thinking. Because voting Labour/Corbyn has suddenly become acceptable a fair few sheep have left the flock and others will follow.Corbyn for the moment at least is the "fashion" and the SNP are feeling the loss of being the "only show in town".

I don't think they did enough to try to capture the remain vote, they just sort of assumed remain voters would naturally endorse independence in the event of leave winning. The issue they have faced is the group who voted remain last year and no in 2014 are a sizeable one who have remained unconvinced by independence.

[ayrmad]

1 minute ago, Lex said:

Why's it inevitable?

Keep reading that word.  Support for independence hasn't grown in the last 3 years despite several events happening that you'd think would cause it to grow.

Why do you think it isn't inevitable?

The SNP still have the majority in both houses despite an insipid performance and a compliant unionist media, support has probably remained static because everyone is fed up with elections and totally scunnered with every election campaign being totally dominated by independence, it doesn't help when Sturgeon & Co are looking for it when a large chunk of YESSERS don't think it's the right time.

[renton]

I think it's premature to pronounce on IndyRef2's mortality just yet, for the following reasons:

1.Whatever the loss of momentum and seats in the GE just gone, the SNP still won a majority of seats, more than the other parties combined. That makes it the fourth election since '14 that it's won handsomely. Tony Blair used to get by on such "defeats" well enough. It has the triple lock, council, Holyrood and Westminster. That isn't to say it didn't lose momentum, however it's position in parliamentary arithmetic is still utterly dominant, and it did pass a vote to have the Indyref through Holyrood.

2. No one has yet offered a cast iron guarantee that opposition to an indyref 2 was the primary reason for not voting for the SNP. Certainly the SNP will be carrying out their own anaylsis, but we have plenty of anecdotal evidence of young voters enthused by Corbyn who would still vote Yes tomorrow (and support for Indy remained static despite the loss of seats; support for Indy != support for the SNP), of people in the North east who are primarily anti EU, and might actually vote Yes were Indyref 2 not so wedded to the EU, some differential turnout as well. Once you strip all that out you can make a judgment on whether opposition to an Indyref is intractable. It may well be that outright Indyref2 opposition was not the single dominant factor in seat losses.

3. By dropping IndyRef2, you attempt to woo back those lost votes, who might still not come. By dropping IndyRef 2, you definitely piss off the people who already support you.

4. The moral case for it is as strong as it was when Sturgeon framed it earlier. Scotland voted to remain in both Unions, this is now mutually exclusive. In lieu of a differentiated Brexit, in lieu of a soft enough Brexit, how can she not offer Scots a chance to untie that Gordian Knot? If the final answer is to stick with the UK, and proceed into blissful, tea drinking isolation, so be it. However, it seems far less democratic not to offer the choice.

Edited June 14, 2017 by renton

[Lex]

1 minute ago, ayrmad said:

Why do you think it isn't inevitable?

The SNP still have the majority in both houses despite an insipid performance and a compliant unionist media, support has probably remained static because everyone is fed up with elections and totally scunnered with every election campaign being totally dominated by independence, it doesn't help when Sturgeon & Co are looking for it when a large chunk of YESSERS don't think it's the right time.

The SNP don't have a majority in Holyrood, they used to but they lost it in the last election. 

The independence movement is clearly fractured and the electorate is sick of it.  I think Scotland will go the way of Quebec, who had their own independence referendum in 1995.  They got far closer than the separatists here did, they got 49.5%. 

Since then there's been much talk of another referendum but support fizzled out and 22 years later it ain't going to happen.   Is independence inevitable there too or just here?

[renton]

Just now, Lex said:

The SNP don't have a majority in Holyrood, they used to but they lost it in the last election. 

The independence movement is clearly fractured and the electorate is sick of it.  I think Scotland will go the way of Quebec, who had their own independence referendum in 1995.  They got far closer than the separatists here did, they got 49.5%. 

Since then there's been much talk of another referendum but support fizzled out and 22 years later it ain't going to happen.   Is independence inevitable there too or just here?

Aye, bear in mind that was their second referendum though. And they were farther away on their first attempt than we were on ours. After '95, Canada passed a federal law basically making another go nigh on impossible to achieve successfully.

[Lex]

7 minutes ago, renton said:

Aye, bear in mind that was their second referendum though. And they were farther away on their first attempt than we were on ours. After '95, Canada passed a federal law basically making another go nigh on impossible to achieve successfully.

Yeah but if there was popular support for it, it would happen.  There isn't though,

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/quebec-angus-reid-canada-indepdence-1.3788110

They got really close, lost and it's now settled that they will stay part of Canada and the issue is pretty much closed save from the fringe tub thumpers.  No reason that can't happen here too.

 

[ayrmad]

5 minutes ago, Lex said:

The SNP don't have a majority in Holyrood, they used to but they lost it in the last election. 

The independence movement is clearly fractured and the electorate is sick of it.  I think Scotland will go the way of Quebec, who had their own independence referendum in 1995.  They got far closer than the separatists here did, they got 49.5%. 

Since then there's been much talk of another referendum but support fizzled out and 22 years later it ain't going to happen.   Is independence inevitable there too or just here?

YES do.

I was a kid the last time proper socialist policies looked capable of winning a Westminster election, most thought it couldn't happen again but it looks likely if there's another GE in the next couple of years, you can't really create the conditions that will bring about independence but they'll happen naturally themselves at some point.

As for Quebec, who cares, they're not Scotland. 

[Lex]

1 minute ago, ayrmad said:

YES do.

I was a kid the last time proper socialist policies looked capable of winning a Westminster election, most thought it couldn't happen again but it looks likely if there's another GE in the next couple of years, you can't really create the conditions that will bring about independence but they'll happen naturally themselves at some point.

As for Quebec, who cares, they're not Scotland. 

So basically you think it's inevitable just cause we're Scotland.

Okayyyy.

[ayrmad]

Just now, Lex said:

So basically you think it's inevitable just cause we're Scotland.

Okayyyy.

No, it's natural because eventually even the most servile of people want a shot at running their own affairs.

It's not YES continually saying don't give us a referendum it's NO, why if a 2nd defeat would probably end it for a few generations do you think all NO parties are so vociferously against another one, it's got f**k all to do with folk being scunnered with votes.

[renton]

3 minutes ago, Lex said:

Yeah but if there was popular support for it, it would happen.  There isn't though,

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/quebec-angus-reid-canada-indepdence-1.3788110

They got really close, lost and it's now settled that they will stay part of Canada and the issue is pretty much closed save from the fringe tub thumpers.  No reason that can't happen here too.

 

Aye, the settled will until it isn't ( by the way, those Angus Reid questions are abominably leading). Scottish nationalism was once the preserve of fringe tub thumpers. Not any more. There is a certain inevitability about a 2nd Indy Ref, partly because the first one did not answer the question with any degree of satisfaction (it's as much about winning the peace as winning the campaign) and partly because the current UK situation around Brexit is unstable. What happens beyond that is anyone's guess. Demographically we are moving towards a situation where the hardcore Unionist vote is dissipating in favour of a more skeptical and open populace, many of whom did vote Yes. On the other hand a 2nd Indyref loss would certainly finish it for a while.

[Lex]

Just now, ayrmad said:

No, it's natural because eventually even the most servile of people want a shot at running their own affairs.

It's not YES continually saying don't give us a referendum it's NO, why if a 2nd defeat would probably end it for a few generations do you think all NO parties are so vociferously against another one, it's got f**k all to do with folk being scunnered with votes.

I'm pro indyref2 and always have been, can't wait to get in that booth and vote no again.

The anti indyref2 amongst unionist parties is more party political point scoring than fear of losing anything I think.  The SNP repeatedly said once in a generation and even once in a lifetime during the campaign, so for the Tories and Slab its an easy move to attack that to portray the SNP as a party not to be trusted. 

Seems to have worked aswell, SNP support is down everywhere.

[ayrmad]

1 minute ago, Lex said:

I'm pro indyref2 and always have been, can't wait to get in that booth and vote no again.

The anti indyref2 amongst unionist parties is more party political point scoring than fear of losing anything I think.  The SNP repeatedly said once in a generation and even once in a lifetime during the campaign, so for the Tories and Slab its an easy move to attack that to portray the SNP as a party not to be trusted. 

Seems to have worked aswell, SNP support is down everywhere.

Did they f**k and they don't speak for me anyway.