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When will indyref2 happen?


Colkitto

Indyref2  

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More PULs dying off over winter than I expected, obviously. Devastating stuff. Just one more harsh winter and 'Yes' should be comfortably placed to romp home in 2018.

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Savage! Although there is probably some truth in it. Yes really needs to be polling at mid 50s though. They were sitting at 47/48 in most polls leading up to the referendum and got 44.7.

I'm delighted with this poll but plenty can still happen yet.
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48 minutes ago, GTG_03 said:

 

 


Savage! Although there is probably some truth in it. Yes really needs to be polling at mid 50s though. They were sitting at 47/48 in most polls leading up to the referendum and got 44.7.

I'm delighted with this poll but plenty can still happen yet.

Yeah, small steps it is. Right direction though. Starting a campaign on 50% a good place to be though. There will also be tens of thousands of young voters eligible to vote by August '18 and they bring a massive pro-Indy majority.

The Tory conference and budget have taken the Unionists backward I reckon.

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1 hour ago, DI Bruce Robertson said:


Really not sure if any research has been done on this, I think 3% may be around right, but that's guesswork. Hopefully it's nearer 5%.

186,000 I think.

They broke 65/35 No last time. Assuming Turkey's don't vote for Christmas then that's an extra 100,000 Yes voters this time.

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3 hours ago, GTG_03 said:

Savage! Although there is probably some truth in it. Yes really needs to be polling at mid 50s though. They were sitting at 47/48 in most polls leading up to the referendum and got 44.7.

I'm delighted with this poll but plenty can still happen yet.

 

 

But if you look at the other stats in the poll, the really striking thing is the 38% who are hard-line Unionists. That only leaves 62% who are pro-independence or willing to be swayed.

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2 hours ago, Crùbag said:

Yeah, small steps it is. Right direction though. Starting a campaign on 50% a good place to be though. There will also be tens of thousands of young voters eligible to vote by August '18 and they bring a massive pro-Indy majority.

The Tory conference and budget have taken the Unionists backward I reckon.

That was my understanding, but post-Referendum studies and polls show incredibly contradictory findings.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-34283948

http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/independence-referendum-figures-revealed-majority-5408163

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/20/scottish-independence-lord-ashcroft-poll

These are reports of studies/polls rather than the data itself.  I'm inclined to believe Ashcroft but it's not always a good idea to ignore a study just because you dislike the findings.  The one reported by the BBC does appear to be counter intuitive though.

 

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But if you look at the other stats in the poll, the really striking thing is the 38% who are hard-line Unionists. That only leaves 62% who are pro-independence or willing to be swayed.

50% + 1 person is all we need. Any party / cause that had 38% confirmed as against them in any political arena would be creaming themselves.
Indy is done & dusted. Maybe not last time, maybe not next time, but it IS happening.
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4 minutes ago, DI Bruce Robertson said:


50% + 1 person is all we need. Any party / cause that had 38% confirmed as against them in any political arena would be creaming themselves.
Indy is done & dusted. Maybe not last time, maybe not next time, but it IS happening.

Yes, but if it's not next time then the next chance isn't coming for decades.

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Yes, but if it's not next time then the next chance isn't coming for decades.

Why?

 

 

ETA- I genuinely thought 2014 was the last chance in my lifetime to see Indy, defeat was galling, depressing and hard to figure out.

Here we are, less than 3 years later & (if polls are to be believed) starting from a stronger position than the final vote last time, it's worth noting that despite the MSM conducting an anti Yes campaign, the yes vote increased from @30% to 45%.

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