When will indyref2 happen?

[renton]

Have you read the full thing? I only ask because I don't work in financial services, so relying on my third party interpretation is not ideal, and I may have missed something in the full document on points you've addressed.

Edited May 25, 2018 by renton

[Baxter Parp]

3 minutes ago, renton said:

Have you read the full thing?

That would restrict the opportunities to froth at the mouth and spout nonsense. So no.

[Crùbag]

1 hour ago, Baxter Parp said:

Gammon Rap.  Utterly bewildering that anybody could take this gibberish from what is a calm and considered document.

This. Even dug-food salesman Kevin Hague sounded relatively positive about it.

[renton]

24 minutes ago, Crùbag said:

This. Even dug-food salesman Kevin Hague sounded relatively positive about it.

So he only thought it was the 2nd worst thing he'd ever read?

[renton]

https://thecommongreen.scot/2018/05/25/we-need-to-talk-about-the-growth-commission-report/

Worth noting, that the CommonWeal think tank wants a different monetary policy whereby a new currency is rolled out over a 3 year transition period from Union to Indy.

[welshbairn]

I'm pretty sure that Treasury and B of E types have admitted that if there had been a Yes vote in 2014 that in England's own interests they would have agreed to a currency union. Scotland can't afford to suggest a plan A this time, they have to put forward a plan that they can actually deliver, whatever London says.

[Detournement]

I've suspected for a while that the SNP are more interested in establishing an apparatus than campaigning for independence but i'm genuinely surprised that they actually knifed the independence movement in the back.

 Years of piggybacking on the pound after the dissolution of the Union and a commitment to a decade of austerity are policies designed to fail. In 2014 the independence campaign was positive and seemed ahead of the curve. Today's document is regressive and reminiscent of the pre crash SNP when Salmond was brown nosing Goodwin and Trump and Ireland's tax avoidance schemes were aspirational. 50+1 will never be achieved by beige managerialism.

 

 

[HeartsOfficialMoaner]

10 minutes ago, Detournement said:

I've suspected for a while that the SNP are more interested in establishing an apparatus than campaigning for independence but i'm genuinely surprised that they actually knifed the independence movement in the back.

 Years of piggybacking on the pound after the dissolution of the Union and a commitment to a decade of austerity are policies designed to fail. In 2014 the independence campaign was positive and seemed ahead of the curve. Today's document is regressive and reminiscent of the pre crash SNP when Salmond was brown nosing Goodwin and Trump and Ireland's tax avoidance schemes were aspirational. 50+1 will never be achieved by beige managerialism.

 

 

You read this?

 

http://www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/2018/05/25/the-scottish-growth-commission-gets-its-economics-very-badly-wrong/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+org%2FlWWh+(Tax+Research+UK+2)

[Detournement]

I have and it's a good summary of a mystifying document.

The Tories have made a lot of political gain since 2010 by lying about a national economy being comparable to a household budget. The SNP seem to want to actually run the Scottish economy like a household budget. At a time when advanced economies based on private debt are stagnating the SNP are doubling down on a dying model and in a suicidal twist doing it without a central bank.

 

[renton]

1 hour ago, Detournement said:

I have and it's a good summary of a mystifying document.

The Tories have made a lot of political gain since 2010 by lying about a national economy being comparable to a household budget. The SNP seem to want to actually run the Scottish economy like a household budget. At a time when advanced economies based on private debt are stagnating the SNP are doubling down on a dying model and in a suicidal twist doing it without a central bank.

 

The document is fairly explicit in its demand for setting up a central bank prior to achieving independence. So assuming the government went with those recommendations that suicidal twist would be avoided.

It also emphasised a number of points concerning transitioning to an export led economy. Using Sterling is sure to be the controversial aspect of that part of the document. Not sure what else was to be expected of a document concerning such a managerial, technical subect than managerialism. Indeed it was never going to satisfy those like the Greens who deny the concept of growth as the central tenent of economics. 

For what it is, its a fairly sober assesment of how other nations of similar size have coped. Its hardly going to sell on a doorstep as a snappy slogan for Indy. It doesn't hugely concern itself with the social and political realities of any given strategy either. Something for the government of the day to decide.

 

[renton]

Can someone point me to the 10 years of austerity section in the document?

Edited May 25, 2018 by renton

[Detournement]

4 minutes ago, renton said:

The document is fairly explicit in its demand for setting up a central bank prior to achieving independence. So assuming the government went with those recommendations that suicidal twist would be avoided.

It also emphasised a number of points concerning transitioning to an export led economy. Using Sterling is sure to be the controversial aspect of that part of the document. Not sure what else was to be expected of a document concerning such a managerial, technical subect than managerialism. Indeed it was never going to satisfy those like the Greens who deny the concept of growth as the central tenent of economics. 

For what it is, its a fairly sober assesment of how other nations of similar size have coped. Its hardly going to sell on a doorstep as a snappy slogan for Indy. It doesn't hugely concern itself with the social and political realities of any given strategy either. Something for the government of the day to decide.

 

A central bank which does what exactly?

The controversial aspect isn't using Sterling. It isn't even matching rUK corporate tax rates. It's committing to cutting the deficit to below 3% in 5-10 years and limiting debt to 50% of GDP and limiting real spending increases to levels less than %growth. It's basically Osbornomics which has completely strangled the UK economy (Q1 2018 growth 0.1%). It's also very similar to the Eurozone fiscal compact which is strangling the economies of southern Europe. It's mandated austerity with none of the monetary levers available to the Eurozone or the UK government which are keeping their economies on life support.

Growth is obviously important but needs to be considered in the context of it's effects. But forgetting about that where does the growth even come from in this scenario? It can't come from fiscal expansion which leaves private debt or foreign investment. Private debt is already out of control and exhausted as a lever of growth and a significant increase in foreign investment would require driving down labour costs.

We don't need assessments of how other nations of our size have fared because none of them have been in this situation. Recovery from Tory austerity whether in the UK or an independent Scotland won't happen without significant fiscal expansion. It is massively disheartening to see the SNP promote these policies just progressive parties around Europe are looking at alternative methods of funding public spending via national investment banks. 

 

 

 

[strichener]

3 minutes ago, renton said:

Can someone point me to the 10 years of austerity section in the document?

The aim is to reduce to deficit to below 3% within 5 to 10 years in the document and doing so by limiting spending.  This is based on trend growth and inflation expectations which is a painting the best possible scenarios on growth and inflation.  If it were to look at expected growth and expected inflation then the only way of this happening would be real-term cuts in spending.

[renton]

20 minutes ago, Detournement said:

A central bank which does what exactly?

The controversial aspect isn't using Sterling. It isn't even matching rUK corporate tax rates. It's committing to cutting the deficit to below 3% in 5-10 years and limiting debt to 50% of GDP and limiting real spending increases to levels less than %growth. It's basically Osbornomics which has completely strangled the UK economy (Q1 2018 growth 0.1%). It's also very similar to the Eurozone fiscal compact which is strangling the economies of southern Europe. It's mandated austerity with none of the monetary levers available to the Eurozone or the UK government which are keeping their economies on life support.

Growth is obviously important but needs to be considered in the context of it's effects. But forgetting about that where does the growth even come from in this scenario? It can't come from fiscal expansion which leaves private debt or foreign investment. Private debt is already out of control and exhausted as a lever of growth and a significant increase in foreign investment would require driving down labour costs.

We don't need assessments of how other nations of our size have fared because none of them have been in this situation. Recovery from Tory austerity whether in the UK or an independent Scotland won't happen without significant fiscal expansion. It is massively disheartening to see the SNP promote these policies just progressive parties around Europe are looking at alternative methods of funding public spending via national investment banks. 

 

 

 

Lender of last resort.  Applying liquidity where required.  Basically everything a central bank shpuld do minus the interest rate control in the short to medium term.

The deficit reduction part looks neoliberal to the core. However the two elements of it seem to be transitioning towards a more productive, export led economy.  Get more women into the workforce for longer and positive migration are fairly progressive policies. Worth remembering that the paper also agrees with the idea of a national investment bank - already being setup by the current government and a policy of supporting actively industries where Scotland may possess a sustainable advantage.

Secondly there is undoubtedly UK discretionary spending that Scotland could cut almost immediately - defence and infrastructure - that could ultimately limit the real effect on service provision. The paper does take the conventional approach that the markets must be persuaded of a government's prudence.  Which is not a view that will find a hell of a lot of sympathy in the more radical wings of the indy movement.

Having said that its not official SNP policy either, as much as denying the findings of a government commision you set up can give rise to hostages of fortune. Nevertheless there are alternatives, such as the Commonweal how to start a new country publication, that is more in line with the wider movements thoughts. Sturgeon calls for a debate. I think there is a decent clutch of potential policies in the paper even if i wouldn't apply the whole thing lock stock and barrel.

Your of the opinion that the SNP  have no intention of ever calling another indy ref? 

 

[Loondave1]

A central bank which does what exactly?
The controversial aspect isn't using Sterling. It isn't even matching rUK corporate tax rates. It's committing to cutting the deficit to below 3% in 5-10 years and limiting debt to 50% of GDP and limiting real spending increases to levels less than %growth. It's basically Osbornomics which has completely strangled the UK economy (Q1 2018 growth 0.1%). It's also very similar to the Eurozone fiscal compact which is strangling the economies of southern Europe. It's mandated austerity with none of the monetary levers available to the Eurozone or the UK government which are keeping their economies on life support.
Growth is obviously important but needs to be considered in the context of it's effects. But forgetting about that where does the growth even come from in this scenario? It can't come from fiscal expansion which leaves private debt or foreign investment. Private debt is already out of control and exhausted as a lever of growth and a significant increase in foreign investment would require driving down labour costs.
We don't need assessments of how other nations of our size have fared because none of them have been in this situation. Recovery from Tory austerity whether in the UK or an independent Scotland won't happen without significant fiscal expansion. It is massively disheartening to see the SNP promote these policies just progressive parties around Europe are looking at alternative methods of funding public spending via national investment banks. 
 
 
 

Tartan Tories turns out to be true potentially. Delicious.

[mjw]

And he's trolling again.

[Ira Gaines]

6 minutes ago, mjw said:

And he's trolling again.
 

Of course he is. He needs a get out for when he makes a c**t of it. Kinda what made him shout "IM A TROLL" in the first place.

[John Lambies Doos]

Tartan Tories turns out to be true potentially. Delicious.

Loon, you don't do yourselves any favours

[BallochSonsFan]

Lender of last resort.  Applying liquidity where required.  Basically everything a central bank shpuld do minus the interest rate control in the short to medium term.
The deficit reduction part looks neoliberal to the core. However the two elements of it seem to be transitioning towards a more productive, export led economy.  Get more women into the workforce for longer and positive migration are fairly progressive policies. Worth remembering that the paper also agrees with the idea of a national investment bank - already being setup by the current government and a policy of supporting actively industries where Scotland may possess a sustainable advantage.
Secondly there is undoubtedly UK discretionary spending that Scotland could cut almost immediately - defence and infrastructure - that could ultimately limit the real effect on service provision. The paper does take the conventional approach that the markets must be persuaded of a government's prudence.  Which is not a view that will find a hell of a lot of sympathy in the more radical wings of the indy movement.
Having said that its not official SNP policy either, as much as denying the findings of a government commision you set up can give rise to hostages of fortune. Nevertheless there are alternatives, such as the Commonweal how to start a new country publication, that is more in line with the wider movements thoughts. Sturgeon calls for a debate. I think there is a decent clutch of potential policies in the paper even if i wouldn't apply the whole thing lock stock and barrel.
Your of the opinion that the SNP  have no intention of ever calling another indy ref? 
 

It can't apply liquidity if it is not the currency central bank.

Bank of England would effectively control currency liquidity. iScotland would be entirely beholden to them for issuing money, including being at their mercy regarding quantitative easing.

[Antlion]

17 minutes ago, BallochSonsFan said:

 

It can't apply liquidity if it is not the currency central bank.

Bank of England would effectively control currency liquidity. iScotland would be entirely beholden to them for issuing money, including being at their mercy regarding quantitative easing.

 

Like a dependent Scotland currently is? I’m amazed you seem to support it.