When will indyref2 happen?

[welshbairn]

43 minutes ago, bob the tank said:

 

There were so many fuds doubting the numbers the cameras were reviewed to verify the correct amount.

 

Hang on, so did the police revise their estimate after examining the CCTV coverage?

[welshbairn]

4 hours ago, Antlion said:

He’s an attention-seeking, self-confessed troll. He’d post pictures of himself giving a handjob to a dying horse if he thought he could get a reaction out of strangers on the internet.

It’s beyond sad. In days to come, desperate trolling will be seen as a form of mental illness.

Have to say you behave like a 14 year old version of Donald Trump after too many sugary doughnuts.

[DrewDon]

16 minutes ago, sparky88 said:

The only person that benefits from the SNP talking up a second independence referendum is Ruth Davidson.

Good headline for Stephen Daisley's next burning-hot Spectator article, IMO. 

[bob the tank]

Hang on, so did the police revise their estimate after examining the CCTV coverage?

That's what I read the other day

[Loondave1]

Have to say you behave like a 14 year old version of Donald Trump after too many sugary doughnuts.

Subconsciously he's in a perma rage at the thought someone somewhere might disagree with him. Other than that he always handles it well...

[Antlion]

2 hours ago, welshbairn said:

Have to say you behave like a 14 year old version of Donald Trump after too many sugary doughnuts.

Can you go a bit further? This is an image I’d be quite interested in actually seeing. I’m not entirely sure what a sugar-filled young Trump was up to.

Otherwise, continue enabling the troll. It feeds off of any attention - as trolls do - to the extent of being unable to resist keeping conversations going about it. 

Edited May 20, 2018 by Antlion

[Antlion]

2 hours ago, sparky88 said:

The only person that benefits from the SNP talking up a second independence referendum is Ruth Davidson.

That says more about the stupidity and small-mindedness of the public than it does about either the SNP or Davidson. If people are willing to embrace Toryism simply because they hate the idea of even being asked about Scotland’s statehood in the context of Brexit Britain so much that they’ll fall for a flim-flammer like Davidson, then hell mend them.

Edited May 20, 2018 by Antlion

[Inanimate Carbon Rod]

After the election of 13 or however many Tory MP’s in Scotland and the lack of any real outcry over brexit I just can’t see us winning another ref any time soon. I want indy more than anyone just don’t think they can overcome the establishment, media and the knuckledragging rangers/racist vote.

[welshbairn]

20 minutes ago, Antlion said:

Can you go a bit further? This is an image I’d be quite interested in actually seeing.

Otherwise, continue enabling the troll. It feeds off of any attention - as trolls do - to the extent of being unable to resist keeping conversations going about it. 

If this was a private SNP forum you might have a point, but it isn't. You go off like one of Trump's early morning raging tweets when someone expresses an opinion that isn't wholly backed by SNP HQ, or gently teases from a different perspective. You would better help promoting your cause and mine by arguing for it than calling anyone who argues against it a troll. When I read your posts I hear the voice of Violet in the Just William books.

Edited May 20, 2018 by welshbairn

[Antlion]

Just now, welshbairn said:

If this was a private SNP forum you might have a point, but it isn't. You go off like one of Trump's early morning raging tweets when someone expresses an opinion that isn't wholly backed by SNP HQ, or gently teases from a different perspective. You would better help promoting your cause and mine by arguing for it than calling anyone who argues against it a troll. When I read your tweets I hear the voice of Violet in the Just William books.

I’m quite happy to hear differing opinions, posed rationally (albeit the genuinely interested anti-independence posters on here seem to be few). As for calling “anyone who argues against it a troll”, perhaps you could provide evidence of this? I’ve called a troll who has openly and repeatedly admitted to being a troll a troll. If you want to argue that he is a serious poster interested in debate, then it’s him you should be arguing with, as it’s him who has denied this. Go on; he’d love the attention. A whole thread turned into a discussion of him should validate his efforts. 

[NotThePars]

I just thought Antlion was a bot.

[Antlion]

5 minutes ago, Inanimate Carbon Rod said:

After the election of 13 or however many Tory MP’s in Scotland and the lack of any real outcry over brexit I just can’t see us winning another ref any time soon. I want indy more than anyone just don’t think they can overcome the establishment, media and the knuckledragging rangers/racist vote.

If true - and it may well be - then that isn’t ever going to change. The establishment is never going to accept that support for Scotland leaving the UK is mainstream; the media is never going to be anything more than partisan in favour of opposing Scottish sovereignty; the knuckledraggers are never going to learn to walk upright.

The timing issue is a bit of a smokescreen, and I say that as someone who would rather wait than pull the trigger prematurely. If Scottish independence can’t be won on the back of the national humiliation that is Brexit, then I can’t foresee a majority ever favouring it. Essentially, the message will be given, “we are not a nation and this is not a union; do what you want with us.”

[Antlion]

Just now, NotThePars said:

I just thought Antlion was a bot.

I wish I had the winning personality. 

[NotThePars]

I wish I had the winning personality. 

We can program you with one.

[Ivo den Bieman]

There's rumours circulating that Tories are preparing for an autumn election as the Maybot has realised that she cannot hold her squabbling party of far-right crazies, zealots and xenophobes together, and will be swept away by Brexit's floodtide of shite.

It'd be crazy to call another indyref at the moment because:

1. referendum fatigue

2. possible new General Election (SNP should have learned something from the last General Election)

3. people wanting to "wait and see" what Brexit actually means in practice

4. the supposed game changer, the Westminster seven-year power grab, is failing to raise the hackles of all but the already converted

People in Scotland (in general) tend to be conservative with a small c. There's been more life-changing referenda in the last four years than there had been in the period 1973-2014. People have had enough of constant change, constant turmoil, constant upheaval, constant political stalemate, constant uncertainty, being used as expendable pawns in an ideological battle.

The trouble is, there's no turning the clock back to pre-June 2016. Regardless of your individual views on Brexit, the UK is now an international laughing stock and has suffered reputational damage on the international stage that will take a long time to repair. This constant political chaos feels very much like the new normal.

In these circumstances, it's better to wait. I don't understand the "but we might lose a majority in 2021" line. If the pro-independence bloc loses an overall majority then, then a Yes vote in an indy ref 2 was never going to happen anyway.

Brexit will be a shocker. People will lose jobs, the cost of living will jump, travel will become more expensive and difficult. I'm afraid it's going to take quite a few years of pain in a post-Brexit unitary UK state before the majority opinion that would trigger a successful indyref 2 result will be reached. It would be sheer suicide to call it prematurely and run the risk of a second defeat and the issue being removed from the table in our lifetimes.

Patience is a very under-rated virtue in today's politics. This is the most hideous and inhuman government Britain's had for over a century. It still leads in the polls down south. The ineptitude of the Labour leadership coupled with a visceral gut reaction from the electorate outwith Scotland to a possible Labour-SNP pact, plus all the factors above, means that (*for me, anyway) now is the wrong time to call another independence referendum.

The No vote- an alliance of the easily frightened elderly, risk-averse  gammon, I'm all right jacks, contrarian trolls and the Loyalist vote  is going to be very difficult to prise apart, in a relentlessly hostile media landscape.

Regard the impatient and those who think this'll all be easy with a good deal of scepticism. Wait. It's easy to look back to 2014 and be bitter but it's not going to make the horrible dilemmas of 2018 any easier to solve. Jumping the gun certainly won't solve the issue in the Yes movement's favour.

 

[Antlion]

Strictly on the issue of “referendum fatigue”: how much of a problem would this be? I get that people might be scunnered with being asked to play a role in politics (or listen to arguments), but which side might it most actively damage?

Surely a Yes campaign would be more energised (and thus likely to get out and vote) than those in favour of an archaic union that is itself riven with infighting and looking down the barrel of a right, charmless robot’s Brexit pistol? Surely crying that everything pro-indy groups say is “grievance” (though unacceptable if the UK was to endure it) will wear thin, except for the most die-hard BritNats?

[Peppino Impastato]

41 minutes ago, Inanimate Carbon Rod said:

After the election of 13 or however many Tory MP’s in Scotland and the lack of any real outcry over brexit I just can’t see us winning another ref any time soon. I want indy more than anyone just don’t think they can overcome the establishment, media and the knuckledragging rangers/racist vote.

What's the harm then?  Might as well have a vote.

People who say I want independence but don't have a vote now are officially the stupidest people on the planet.  If you don't have it now you will be waiting at least twenty or thirty years for another chance.  

Holyrood was specifically designed to prevent majorities to prevent independence.  You may never see another one.  Ever.  The unionist parties are going to form a unionist alliance to try to oust the SNP and even if they don't succeed the SNP will not have the votes to get it through holyrood. 

It's now or never, with nothing to lose.  A free hit.  You'd be mad not to give it a go.

[welshbairn]

6 minutes ago, Ivo den Bieman said:

Brexit will be a shocker. People will lose jobs, the cost of living will jump, travel will become more expensive and difficult. I'm afraid it's going to take quite a few years of pain in a post-Brexit unitary UK state before the majority opinion that would trigger a successful indyref 2 result will be reached. It would be sheer suicide to call it prematurely and run the risk of a second defeat and the issue being removed from the table in our lifetimes.

Good post, and I agree with most of it apart from this one. If we delay for "quite a few years" after it's obvious that leaving the EU was/is going to be an utter f**k up there will be time to spin "Look, the 30 new lorry lanes to Dover are almost complete, and "We've got a trade deal with America!",  and "we can't be blackmailed by Ireland" etc. I agree we should wait till we know the final settlement, but I would call one soon after. Abandoning a sinking sink doesn't sit well with people, and there's a real chance that Europe will be disintegrating if we leave it too long. It would be nice for Scotland to join in time to shore up  and help save what we played a big role in starting in Europe, the Enlightenment .

[Antlion]

Let’s imagine that Brexit is the predicted f**k up. Let’s imagine we endure it for a few years. Let’s imagine that after we’ve all taken a hit, a Yes campaign emerges from the ashes.

Those in favour of the UK will simply say, “think how much worse things will be if you/we govern yourselves”; “look, things are improving”; “we’ve got to stick together in these tough times, as we stood against the Nazis”; “if you think leaving the EU was hard, why would you want to suffer the greater buggering of leaving the UK”.

In short, the scripts are already written for a mid-2020s (or later) referendum.

[Inanimate Carbon Rod]

What's the harm then?  Might as well have a vote.
People who say I want independence but don't have a vote now are officially the stupidest people on the planet.  If you don't have it now you will be waiting at least twenty or thirty years for another chance.  
Holyrood was specifically designed to prevent majorities to prevent independence.  You may never see another one.  Ever.  The unionist parties are going to form a unionist alliance to try to oust the SNP and even if they don't succeed the SNP will not have the votes to get it through holyrood. 
It's now or never, with nothing to lose.  A free hit.  You'd be mad not to give it a go.

Look just because I don’t attack no voters with the same vitriol you do doesnt mean i’m any bit less supportive of Scottish Independence. If we have a ref next year so be it, I just think we’ll get pumped, its not that I don’t believe Scotland couldn’t be a successful (infact far more than as part of the UK) state, I just think we’re a nation of shitebags and just don’t see us winning it.