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When will indyref2 happen?


Colkitto

Indyref2  

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17 hours ago, strichener said:

Your statement regarding the first part is equally applicable to the second part - "The figures are probably available on this and it would be  quantifiable for some individual or some agency with the time and energy to collate.", being in or out of a union doesn't make the analysis of the difference any different GNI is based on ownership, GDP on location.

Not really. In terms of scale, it would be relatively manageable for an agency (or someone with knowledge and lots of time) to look at the UK taxation and company records of Scotlands relatively small number of investment firms. This would presumably show amounts per annum invested and the likewise the returns on those investments. The sticking point with these things is always going to be therafter getting the breakdown on what proportion of that investment and eventual return is from and subsequently returned to outwith Scotland. There is no mechanism that I am aware of for the Scottish govt to do so. Presumably the firms themselves will hold that information, but with no legal obligation to disclose to a Scottish exchequer....they ain't gonna.

As with GERS just now we would be left to estimate. In a relatively small imdustry (in terms of scale for our whole economy) the estimate may not be too far off. Apply that same process to the whole economy though and its a guess.

The whole investment and return issue is a blip in the ocean anyway. As I posted before I am very confident that outflow from investment profits would be a very small part of 9 billion pound. It cannot then explain the difference.

Yes GNI can be described as an indication of ownership. As described in that FOA article I posted, Ireland also has a big gap between GDP/GNI. Howover they can account for that gap as they retain control of fiscal records. The bulk of money transfer outwith Ireland would appear due to a deliberate corporate friendly taxation system that has encouraged foriegn business. Profits made obviously head back to a foriegn base.

There is no way as it stands without Holyrood having full control of fiscal powers, that we can likewise explain the difference. 

The GDP/GNI figures are simply a macro indicator that we are creating much more wealth in Scotland than what we are spending ourselves or having spent on us.

It is a sign of what should be a wealthy country.

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On 18/05/2018 at 12:02, Lurkst said:

I'm not sure this study looks at expenditure though, only income?   If that was the case you'd think the SNP etc. would be all over it.

GDP figures include public expenditure.

I am sure these are the type of figures the SNP and wider independence movement do try to highlight.

Good luck with that with the Scottish media though.

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Solid input Loon... good poster
I have to confess the sense of tumbleweed blowing across the subject of Indy2 has had a detrimental effect on my quality. Finding it hard to motivate myself to make quality comments on the political equivalent of Bigfoot or The Loch Ness Monster. If you find any signs of Indy2 make sure and get a blurry photo at least or some low resolution footage on a mobile phone. Believe..
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I have to confess the sense of tumbleweed blowing across the subject of Indy2 has had a detrimental effect on my quality. Finding it hard to motivate myself to make quality comments on the political equivalent of Bigfoot or The Loch Ness Monster. If you find any signs of Indy2 make sure and get a blurry photo at least or some low resolution footage on a mobile phone. Believe..


Blurry photos in the Sunday papers the other week of the beginnings of indyref2
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I’m sorry but I can’t see a vote next May being anything but a ‘No’ and the death of the campaign for independence. Can’t see the numbers required switching from a no last time to yes this time.

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27 minutes ago, Enigma said:

I’m sorry but I can’t see a vote next May being anything but a ‘No’ and the death of the campaign for independence. Can’t see the numbers required switching from a no last time to yes this time.

There is a good possibility about another 6% added to the Yes vote would get us over the line from where we are right now. With Brexit and a good campaign, how can you dismiss the possibility of a Yes vote victory so easily with the margin so narrow?

There isn't a huge gulf to overcome from a Yes perspective. We're not 20% or more behind with a huge chasm to fill.In fact right now as we speak I don't think any side can guarantee victory.  And by that I mean even the No side aren't certain of how this will pan out when indyref2  is  called. 

Any referendum is a gamble. But with current events, and you would hope, a Yes campaign that's done it's homework from 2014, a good campaign will see us over the finishing line

 

 

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I’m sorry but I can’t see a vote next May being anything but a ‘No’ and the death of the campaign for independence. Can’t see the numbers required switching from a no last time to yes this time.
Calling a largely unwanted Indy2 will cause a backlash much like the last GE. It will be seen as the SNP pandering to the pressures of it's own foot soldiers and punished accordingly. Smells of last chance saloon gambling and an admission of no confidence in securing a resounding YES at a later date. If the fear is losing a pro Indy majority at Holyrood that would be because the rest of the electorate has had enough and are handing out telts to the SNP. However the zoomers on here appear to think % can only move constantly in their favour for some reason ? If you buy into the waiting for the oldies to die off theory it is an even more puzzling course of action. Theoretical though as i doubt Nicola is reckless enough, despite Bonnie Prince Eck prodding her from his well deserved exile. His lack of public profile must be destroying him the old windbag that he is.
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Almost feel sorry for Loondave, the absolute state of him on here.

‘Foot soldiers’

‘Bonnie Prince Eck’

‘The old windbag that he is’

‘Saltire tinted glasses’ (surely everyone wants what’s best for Scotland anyway no????)

A couple of percentage points to go a certain way = ‘the political equivalent of finding Bigfoot or the Loch Ness Monster’

What a sad individual

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