When will indyref2 happen?

[Londonwell]

50 minutes ago, invergowrie arab said:

The Growth Commission will report in January which is step 1.

I like Andrew Wilson but have never been convinced that he’s the right man to be leading this up.  I have similar concerns with others involved as well. It seems that we’ve left our best financial brains at the road side on this, as they’re busy doing other stuff.

I hope to be proved wrong.  A coherent and plausible strategy across the 3 main areas I believe they’re covering is really needed to get the wheels turning.

[AUFC90]

If the dont have sound plan for campaigning and winning the referendum theyd be as well just declaring a no vote the noo.

[Kejan]

If there is a customs union/EFTA type agreement with the EU, then I don't think there will be one. If we crash out of the EU on bad terms with no deal or there is a special deal for NI but not rUK ; then there will be one in the next two years, IMO. 

I'm worried about winning a fresh one so soon after the last one, but of course there is clusterfuck of Brexit and no deal etc ; then we really need to have one and ready to go.

If not, it'll be 10 years or so before the next one. The polls are encouraging that there's still roughly on average 45% yes but looks like it'll take a generation or two for there to be a majority in polls. Maybe I'm wrong and with Brexit, you wouldn't want to predict what will happen tomorrow never mind next month. Although the polls do look good for the future in that under 50s back independence, just we might have wait a wee bity before we get there.

Think the SNP have played it pretty cool since June. No denying it was a disappointing result, and think most of what they have done since then has been really good. Even things like Fergus Ewing last week going on a Twitter rampage of posting up the availability of broadband in parts of Scotland - what it was/would be under sole UK rule and what the SNP have done.  The SNP are nowhere near perfect - bolder land reform, taxation - , but they  certainly are the best government devolved Scotland has had.

The cringe is slowly dismantling too, and Scotland is a more comfortable with itself place than it was ten years ago.

We also have a good reputation and a higher profile abroad. People might shout publicity stunts, or 'THAT WOMAN!'  or whatever pish the foamers do ; but the baby box, crowing of the improved broadband, the FM taking a HIV test in public, having a Brexit plan etc are little things that  show a government that is confident.  And whilst winning awards like 'most friendly gay country' in 2016 according to Pink News, or 'most hospitable place' by Rough Guide in 2017 has nothing to do with the government, it goes part in parcel with a more outward, confident Scotland, IMO.

 

 

[renton]

One thing to note is how far the UK Government has backtracked from a position of a special deal for NI, now stating the "regulatory alignment" will apply to the whole of the UK, yet at the same time we'll definitely be leaving the Customs Union and Single Market. Forced, no doubt into the position by warnings from their Scottish cohort of the dangers of undermining the constitutional stability of the UK.

In practice that surely means a softer Brexit as the requirement in Ireland to retain as little of a border as possible inexorably pulls the UK into an EU regulatory regime.

The chief danger of that, from a Tory perspective, is that the Brexiteers realize they are being mugged off with us paying the money we'd already be paying if we stayed in, with a trade and regulatory regime that shadows that of Brussels with as little room for maneuver then for buccaneering tax breaks as now. In that position, what do you do? Bring down the government?

In any event, the current ramblings from Davis suggest an attempt to head off a threat from Sturgeon. It probably does muddy any attempt by the latter to launch a referendum on the back of a hard Brexit, albeit even this form of soft(ish) Brexit (outside the single market but acting like we're in it) is likely to damage growth and lead to job losses.

[Donathan]

I thought it had been established that Holyrood doesn’t have the power to organise a legality binding referendum and WM said they won’t be allowing one?

[bob the tank]

I thought it had been established that Holyrood doesn’t have the power to organise a legality binding referendum and WM said they won’t be allowing one?

No

[AUFC90]

I thought it had been established that Holyrood doesn’t have the power to organise a legality binding referendum and WM said they won’t be allowing one?

As an independence supporter I would absolutley love the UK government to properly refuse a referendum. Plays right into our hands. Their best bet is to grant one and hope for a win.

[Donathan]

As an independence supporter I would absolutley love the UK government to properly refuse a referendum. Plays right into our hands. Their best bet is to grant one and hope for a win.

Does it, though? I’m not sure such a move on the U.K. government’s part would convert anyone to the Yes side. Obviously those who support independence would still support it, but those who are against it seem quite happy to take Westminster’s side on the situation. Besides, the Catalonia situation shows that the international community will back one of its own if a rogue state tries to breakaway after a referendum that the sovereign government doesn’t recognise, so I’m not sure that a UDI after an unrecognised referendum would even work.

Probably the best option for the SNP at this point would be to wait in the wings for May’s government to collapse and hope that Corbyn falls shy of a majority. They can probably win back a few of the more marginal Tory gains, but will likely lose more seats to Labour especially now that they’ve installed a more competent leader. The price for the SNP to enter coalition with Corbyn should be the devolution of power to Holyrood of the right to call a legally binding independence referendum at any time provided the majority of MSPs vote in favour.

[AUFC90]

 

Does it, though? I’m not sure such a move on the U.K. government’s part would convert anyone to the Yes side. Obviously those who support independence would still support it, but those who are against it seem quite happy to take Westminster’s side on the situation. Besides, the Catalonia situation shows that the international community will back one of its own if a rogue state tries to breakaway after a referendum that the sovereign government doesn’t recognise, so I’m not sure that a UDI after an unrecognised referendum would even work.

 

Probably the best option for the SNP at this point would be to wait in the wings for May’s government to collapse and hope that Corbyn falls shy of a majority. They can probably win back a few of the more marginal Tory gains, but will likely lose more seats to Labour especially now that they’ve installed a more competent leader. The price for the SNP to enter coalition with Corbyn should be the devolution of power to Holyrood of the right to call a legally binding independence referendum at any time provided the majority of MSPs vote in favour.

 

Its the people in the middle that will win the referendum. Die hard indy supporters and unionists don't matter at all. Im not suggesting UDI and i dont think anyone seriously thinks that's a possibility. The genies out the bottle and a precedence has been set regarding a referendum. If a democratically elected Scottish government acts on a manifesto commitment and votes for one I reckon it will happen. Davidson, May and all the rest have always been careful of never saying that they wont allow it rather that they would delay it. They know how it looks. Besides all polling in the last few years indicates a sizeable majority in favour of another one at some point....yes and no supporters.

 

[HTG]

9 hours ago, Donathan said:

They can probably win back a few of the more marginal Tory gains, but will likely lose more seats to Labour especially now that they’ve installed a more competent leader. 

 

To be clear, Corbyn is not a competent leader. He's utterly useless beyond soundbites.

[Baxter Parp]

6 minutes ago, HTG said:

To be clear, Corbyn is not a competent leader. He's utterly useless beyond soundbites.

His politics are more appealing to a Scottish electorate though.

[renton]

10 hours ago, Donathan said:

 

 

Does it, though? I’m not sure such a move on the U.K. government’s part would convert anyone to the Yes side. Obviously those who support independence would still support it, but those who are against it seem quite happy to take Westminster’s side on the situation. Besides, the Catalonia situation shows that the international community will back one of its own if a rogue state tries to breakaway after a referendum that the sovereign government doesn’t recognise, so I’m not sure that a UDI after an unrecognised referendum would even work.

Probably the best option for the SNP at this point would be to wait in the wings for May’s government to collapse and hope that Corbyn falls shy of a majority. They can probably win back a few of the more marginal Tory gains, but will likely lose more seats to Labour especially now that they’ve installed a more competent leader. The price for the SNP to enter coalition with Corbyn should be the devolution of power to Holyrood of the right to call a legally binding independence referendum at any time provided the majority of MSPs vote in favour.

 

More depends on the SNP than Labour in this scenario. Corbynmania barely made a dent up here last time, with the majority of the Labour seat gains actually showing a decrease in the total number of votes. Only the SNP vote decreasing far more dramatically let Labour in. There was very little switching from the SNP to Labour and much of the missing SNP vote from 2015 went to "Did not vote". The SNP fought a lackluster and lazy campaign. They won't do that again, I suspect.

[Colkitto]

The SNP will start pushing the indyref2 campaign early next year by the looks of it. Could they go for an Autumn  vote?  Personally think it's too soon and I'm sure the Tory government will  knock it back - assuming they are in power.

If there is a Westminster election Labour will almost certainly require the votes of the SNP to regain power. Any deal the SNP have with Labour must include Holyrood gaining the power to hold a referendum when it chooses.

If the Tories are still in power and still refuse dialog to hold a legally binding referendum then the SNP must make the most of that as in the longer term would work in our favour.

I can only assume if the indyref2 campaign starts in January 2018 then you are looking to hold one within 18 months

Edited December 6, 2017 by Colkitto

[HTG]

9 hours ago, Baxter Parp said:

His politics are more appealing to a Scottish electorate though.

Aye,  his political stance may be. He is hopeless as a leader. The speaker should be all but stopping PMQs every week to spare May from getting badly hurt but he cannae throw a punch. 

[Crùbag]

This new splinter group look like a friendly bunch.

[ArabianKnight]

1 hour ago, Crùbag said:

This new splinter group look like a friendly bunch.

Wow that's not incredibly disturbing at all.

f**k that passive aggressive nonsense.

[DrewDon]

Tears.

[Colkitto]

My thoughts exactly

 

[Granny Danger]

22 hours ago, Crùbag said:

This new splinter group look like a friendly bunch.

Seriously needs a skelp in the pus.

[NotThePars]

I think basing your decision to hold an independence referendum on whether or not you believe you can secure a pro-indy majority in 2012 is fucking stupid. If Yes lose the next one then that's it for a good decade at least.