When will indyref2 happen?

[pandarilla]

They didn't but they did vote for the union. Scotland needs a short to mid stability period. Let's see how brexit pans out. I for one want to see a independent Scotland, and I believe I will. But, let's respect both results wait a few years and evaluate situation.

This. Absolutely this.

Patience is required.

[renton]

44 minutes ago, John Lambies Doos said:

 

 

They didn't but they did vote for the union. Scotland needs a short to mid stability period. Let's see how brexit pans out. I for one want to see a independent Scotland, and I believe I will. But, let's respect both results wait a few years and evaluate situation.

 

How can you respect what are now contradictory wishes?

Also, I don't believe waiting a "few years" for things to get worse is viable. Allowing a shite situation to become normalized makes it all the harder to claw back later.  The SNP also do have a shelf life, and once they are out of government - how long then until they return? How much damage must Brexit and the Tories be allowed to do to Scotland before we decide enough water is under the bridge?

Personally I think the right thing to do is offer up the referendum once the terms of Brexit are known, and definitely before 2021. It's the last certain point we'll be able to have one.

[Colkitto]

14 minutes ago, renton said:

How can you respect what are now contradictory wishes?

Also, I don't believe waiting a "few years" for things to get worse is viable. Allowing a shite situation to become normalized makes it all the harder to claw back later.  The SNP also do have a shelf life, and once they are out of government - how long then until they return? How much damage must Brexit and the Tories be allowed to do to Scotland before we decide enough water is under the bridge?

Personally I think the right thing to do is offer up the referendum once the terms of Brexit are known, and definitely before 2021. It's the last certain point we'll be able to have one.

^^^^

This for me - spot on. 

It's going to be a hard decision to make regardless. If she waits I'm sure she will have a look at polling to see if it's possible to have a pro-indy majority in the next parliament.

If she takes the gamble then we must have indyref2  at the start of the new term. 

Remember the parliament is designed not to have one party with an over all majority. So the Greens vote will have to hold up also.

I don't believe there will ever be a "right time" to hold a referendum.  It will always be a gamble and Unionists will always come out with some excuse for not having one.

One thing I notice is the Unionists want indyref2 taken off the table right now.  Surely they must believe they can  win a Unionist majority in the next term?  

I understand the arguments for waiting, but I'm not wholly convinced that's the correct way to go.    

 

 

[John Lambies Doos]

How can you respect what are now contradictory wishes?
Also, I don't believe waiting a "few years" for things to get worse is viable. Allowing a shite situation to become normalized makes it all the harder to claw back later.  The SNP also do have a shelf life, and once they are out of government - how long then until they return? How much damage must Brexit and the Tories be allowed to do to Scotland before we decide enough water is under the bridge?
Personally I think the right thing to do is offer up the referendum once the terms of Brexit are known, and definitely before 2021. It's the last certain point we'll be able to have one.

Renton. Your points are all valid. I'll address them. You are right about contradictory wishes, and to be fair the SNP were very clear in their 2015 manifesto. They quite rightly raised the subject post brexit vote but it did somewhat backfire on them as people I speak to are a tad fatigued. Totally agree that SNP may have a shelf life but independence does not. We need to somehow show that independence is not all about the SNP; that's difficult as they have been the beacon.
With regards to brexit I honestly don't know when exact terms will be known so it's better to spend the next few years (re)mobilising a cross functional independence movement across our country. I've been fairly consistent in my c. 2023 date for referendum so let's build a better country in meantime instead of going for a snap which will delay independence for a very very long time.

[NotThePars]

The SNP's coopting of the influential groups within the Yes movement probably means it's going to take a heck of a lot of work to show that independence is larger than the SNP in the short term. That isn't a bad thing if the SNP can generate a radical and eye catching vision that they're threatening to do. The Greens obvs have their politics and I admire them but they're trapped in a bubble that means they're not going to appeal to the people that need to be won over. Scottish Labour at least going neutral on the issue and shifting the dead weight that's stopping a Corbyn's bounce up here could help but I can say from the limited engagement I've had that that's much, much easier said than done. I joined two months ago to try and engage more directly with my MP and I'm already pissed aff.

[John Lambies Doos]

The SNP's coopting of the influential groups within the Yes movement probably means it's going to take a heck of a lot of work to show that independence is larger than the SNP in the short term. That isn't a bad thing if the SNP can generate a radical and eye catching vision that they're threatening to do. The Greens obvs have their politics and I admire them but they're trapped in a bubble that means they're not going to appeal to the people that need to be won over. Scottish Labour at least going neutral on the issue and shifting the dead weight that's stopping a Corbyn's bounce up here could help but I can say from the limited engagement I've had that that's much, much easier said than done. I joined two months ago to try and engage more directly with my MP and I'm already pissed aff.

We warned you

In all seriousness this is what an independence movement needs ie a change from within the labour party.
Keep trying...

[NotThePars]

We warned you

In all seriousness this is what an independence movement needs ie a change from within the labour party.
Keep trying...

I was equally pissed off with the SNP tbf when I was volunteering there. They really aren't utilising their membership base as much as they could and they were obviously coasting by the elections just gone. I think if folk like Wolfson win a seat then things will begin to change for the better but c***s like MacDougall still hold a baffling amount of influence.

[renton]

1 hour ago, NotThePars said:

The SNP's coopting of the influential groups within the Yes movement probably means it's going to take a heck of a lot of work to show that independence is larger than the SNP in the short term. That isn't a bad thing if the SNP can generate a radical and eye catching vision that they're threatening to do. The Greens obvs have their politics and I admire them but they're trapped in a bubble that means they're not going to appeal to the people that need to be won over. Scottish Labour at least going neutral on the issue and shifting the dead weight that's stopping a Corbyn's bounce up here could help but I can say from the limited engagement I've had that that's much, much easier said than done. I joined two months ago to try and engage more directly with my MP and I'm already pissed aff.

The vast majority of the pre-election PLP was hostile to Corbyn, yet he bounced well enough back into the opposition benches from whence he began. With that in mind, why are you so sure it's personnel that is the bulwark against the flood of Corbyn-mania into Scotland?

[Antlion]

18 hours ago, GTG_03 said:

 

 

I believe it's on the table yes. They'll probably try a stitch up first with these 'new powers' and if sturgeon doesnt play ball and goes for indy2 I can see them doing it.

 

And why wouldn't they? The strategy need only be to insist that any complaints that a UK power grab is taking place are just "grievance", a buzz word that makes the British bulldogs nod.

The UK government will probably never get a better opportunity to row back on devolution, with the support of British nationalists who can portray any anger as manufactured "grievance" (they should know, having stoked grievance against the EU for long enough).

I wonder if the media is currently engaged in talking down Holyrood as a useless experiment...

[NotThePars]

1 hour ago, renton said:

The vast majority of the pre-election PLP was hostile to Corbyn, yet he bounced well enough back into the opposition benches from whence he began. With that in mind, why are you so sure it's personnel that is the bulwark against the flood of Corbyn-mania into Scotland?

 

Can only go off my own experiences and the fact that Momentum seem much more organised than CfS up here. Tbf, I haven't said it's just the personnel either but there is a committed group of Corbyn supporters that are battling the established party up here but I'm 50/50 over whether they'll have much success.

[Ira Gaines]

I'd be all for respecting both results if one wasn't incredibly harmful to Scotland and not fuelled by hatred and bigotry to a large degree. I'd also be all for respecting that one result if I thought that Scotland would definitely vote for independence if things went horribly bad.

I don't have much confidence that the latter thing would happen. So I'd much rather that Brexit in itself went tits up, rather than the entire country after we left.

[John Lambies Doos]

I'd be all for respecting both results if one wasn't incredibly harmful to Scotland and not fuelled by hatred and bigotry to a large degree. I'd also be all for respecting that one result if I thought that Scotland would definitely vote for independence if things went horribly bad.
I don't have much confidence that the latter thing would happen. So I'd much rather that Brexit in itself went tits up, rather than the entire country after we left.

So what would be your ideal scenario and timeline to go for a 2nd vote?

[Ira Gaines]

8 minutes ago, John Lambies Doos said:

 

So what would be your ideal scenario and timeline to go for a 2nd vote?

Before this whole mess, I'd have waited until 2020.

At this point, we should exhaust all possibilities to try and stop Brexit. When that possibility has gone, I think it needs to be called pretty much as soon as possible, even in the event that it might be a loser.

If it's not going to be won at that point, then it's probably a loser anyways.

[John Lambies Doos]

Before this whole mess, I'd have waited until 2020.
At this point, we should exhaust all possibilities to try and stop Brexit. When that possibility has gone, I think it needs to be called pretty much as soon as possible, even in the event that it might be a loser.
If it's not going to be won at that point, then it's probably a loser anyways.

Valid point. My worry is apathy tbh. People are just a tad fatigued.

[welshbairn]

2 hours ago, Randy Giles said:

Before this whole mess, I'd have waited until 2020.

At this point, we should exhaust all possibilities to try and stop Brexit. When that possibility has gone, I think it needs to be called pretty much as soon as possible, even in the event that it might be a loser.

If it's not going to be won at that point, then it's probably a loser anyways.

The next referendum will be the last one for decades. It would be daft to call it without at least a 50/50 chance of winning.  We might get that after Brexit but if not we should wait, working in the meantime to bring more powers to Holyrood, bit by bit to the stage that there could be a smooth transition to full independence.

[bob the tank]

Does nobody on this forum pay attention to the announcements made by the Scottish Government concerning the timing of indyref2? I thought it was common knowledge.

[Mastermind]

Three years ago today - Happy Birthday

[renton]

13 hours ago, Mastermind said:

Three years ago today - Happy Birthday

Anniversary surely, you thick f**k.

[Loondave1]

Three years ago today - Happy Birthday

Indy was stillborn didn't you know."3 years ago today.Fondly remembered" would be more accurate.

[Antlion]

3 minutes ago, Loondave1 said:

Indy was stillborn didn't you know."3 years ago today.Fondly remembered" would be more accurate.

Whereas the birth of little British nationalist Brexit is still looming, and promises to be as darling as Alien's chest-bursting scene.

Edited September 19, 2017 by Antlion