When will indyref2 happen?

[Crossbill]

It's more than a little duplicitous to present the Yes vote split like this.  

What would the results look like if the possible answers were 'Yes', 'Not for a generation', 'Not for a lifetime', 'NEVER - WATP!' ?

[renton]

3 minutes ago, Loondave1 said:

I think it did decide in 2014.

For all time?

[Baxter Parp]

7 minutes ago, Lex said:

We got to decide in 2014, and we did.

It's not 2014 anymore.  HTH.

[Loondave1]

It's more than a little duplicitous to present the Yes vote split like this.  
What would the results look like if the possible answers were 'Yes', 'Not for a generation', 'Not for a lifetime', 'NEVER - WATP!' ?

The YES vote is only 30 on this the other column could split in any direction.

[Loondave1]

For all time?

Pantlion said "should never get to decide" i am merely pointing out the obvious flaw in that statement.

[renton]

2 minutes ago, Loondave1 said:

Pantlion said "should never get to decide" i am merely pointing out the obvious flaw in that statement.

The option given for that poll is "No, not ever", so Antlion's commentary, given the tense of his statement, and based on that poll seems accurate.

[btb]

IndyRef2 should be put on the backburner until after the Brexit deal is completed.

At that point we'll know what the May government has secured for us  and whether the EU are willing to offer Scotland anything as a GIRFUY to the Tories.

Politics in the Twitter age is going to more fluid than what we've been used to and I'd love to see Davidson, Dugdale & Rennie defend the clusterfuck we're likely to emerge from these negotiations with - I'm not holding my breath though.

[Colkitto]

2 minutes ago, btb said:

IndyRef2 should be put on the backburner until after the Brexit deal is completed.

At that point we'll know what the May government has secured for us  and whether the EU are willing to offer Scotland anything as a GIRFUY to the Tories.

Politics in the Twitter age is going to more fluid than what we've been used to and I'd love to see Davidson, Dugdale & Rennie defend the clusterfuck we're likely to emerge from these negotiations with - I'm not holding my breath though.

The danger of the backburner is will the SNP/Greens get a majority in the next parly or the one after that? From now till the next indyref2 could be 15 years if we don't get a majority in the next 2 Holyrood parliament elections  

[renton]

5 minutes ago, btb said:

IndyRef2 should be put on the backburner until after the Brexit deal is completed.

At that point we'll know what the May government has secured for us  and whether the EU are willing to offer Scotland anything as a GIRFUY to the Tories.

Politics in the Twitter age is going to more fluid than what we've been used to and I'd love to see Davidson, Dugdale & Rennie defend the clusterfuck we're likely to emerge from these negotiations with - I'm not holding my breath though.

That's literally been Sturgeon's plan from the start, so not sure what would change other than emphasizing the fact.

[renton]

2 minutes ago, Colkitto said:

The danger of the backburner is will the SNP/Greens get a majority in the next parly or the one after that? From now till the next indyref2 could be 15 years if we don't get a majority in the next 2 Holyrood parliament elections  

Bear in mind the Brexit deal is due for completion by Summer '19.

[Lex]

1 hour ago, renton said:

Bear in mind the Brexit deal is due for completion by Summer '19.

 

Even if it does complete by then, which is unlikely in itself, I can't see NS rushing through any referendum pre 2021.  Her hand would be strengthened by a post Brexit turn down which wont become clear till 2020 at the earliest.

Then the Holyrood elections are due anyway, it would make sense for both sdes to give the Scottish electorate a clear choice in 2021.  A referendum for a referendum almost.  If you want a second referendum in the next parliament vote SNP or Green, if you don't want one vote for A.N Other.

Whoever gets the majority from the two sides takes it.

Edited June 23, 2017 by Lex

[Lex]

3 minutes ago, kilbowie2002 said:

I think given Carney's remarks through the week its actually pretty clear who's going to win the economic argument this time pending a miracle deal. Any future referendum is an opportunity for Scotland to leave the UK and be successful or fail with brexit. The key is how the SNP/Yes side frame it and get their argument across.

Well who wins the economic argument is less important than who wins the economic reality.  No one can say with any certainty what will happen after Brexit, the only way to find out is to wait and see.

 

And we should wait and see before we are given the choice of whether we want another referendum or not.  2021 is a fair date for the Scottish electorate to make that decision.

[Colkitto]

We've got a majority now in parliament. There is a real danger this might not happen again in the next Holyrood election or even the one after that. 

We MUST seize the opportunity whilst we still have the numbers to do so. It could be an utter travesty if we don't in my opinion

If we don't it will be like the Jacobites turning back at Derby and probably with the same consequences (in a political sense).

[renton]

11 minutes ago, Lex said:

 

Even if it does complete by then, which is unlikely in itself, I can't see NS rushing through any referendum pre 2021.  Her hand would be strengthened by a post Brexit turn down which wont become clear till 2020 at the earliest.

Then the Holyrood elections are due anyway, it would make sense for both sdes to give the Scottish electorate a clear choice in 2021.  A referendum for a referendum almost.  If you want a second referendum in the next parliament vote SNP or Green, if you don't want one vote for A.N Other.

Whoever gets the majority from the two sides takes it.

I think her options are limited, waiting until Brexit and it's damage is done makes post Indy life a fair bit harder for everyone, and we should try and make a decision before then. Moreover, politically chancing your arm on the next election returning a pro-Indy majority is a gamble, even if it's a small one - why bother when you have a mandate now, as they actually do?

[Lex]

2 minutes ago, renton said:

I think her options are limited, waiting until Brexit and it's damage is done makes post Indy life a fair bit harder for everyone, and we should try and make a decision before then. Moreover, politically chancing your arm on the next election returning a pro-Indy majority is a gamble, even if it's a small one - why bother when you have a mandate now, as they actually do?

Surely having it pre brexit fallout is more of a gamble?   Nicola would call it for September 2019 if she thought she would win.  She doesn't though, and who can blame her given the SNP are losing ground in election after election after election. 

The momentum was clearly with the YES side throughout the referendum campaign which led to the result being closer than many expected.  That momentum continued right into the remarkable performance of the SNP in the 2015 general election.

The momentum has clearly stopped now though.

 

 

[renton]

1 minute ago, Lex said:

Surely having it pre brexit fallout is more of a gamble?   Nicola would call it for September 2019 if she thought she would win.  She doesn't though, and who can blame her given the SNP are losing ground in election after election after election. 

The momentum was clearly with the YES side throughout the referendum campaign which led to the result being closer than many expected.  That momentum continued right into the remarkable performance of the SNP in the 2015 general election.

The momentum has clearly stopped now though.

 

 

She could have in Summer 2020, if she so wished. Any time frame for an independence referendum is a gamble, a campaign to be won through persuasion rather than the other kind of referendum that is a rubber stamp for accepted popular opinion. Support for independence has remained largely static in the mid 40s (dks removed) even as SNP vote share dropped in the last Westminster election (the only time SNP vote share has really dropped, from what was an unsustainable figure), that's as good a platform as we are likely to get. And if, as you argue, the SNP look likely to lose sufficient momentum to allow them to call a referendum after 2021, why would they wait?

[Guest Bob Mahelp]

There isn't a chance in hell of winning a referendum any time in the forseeable future. In fact, if there was one in the next couple of years I'd put a fair wager of cash on the result being something like 70/30 in favour of No.

And I say that as a commited independence supporter and SNP member.

The SNP have got absolutely no choice at this moment other than to put independence on the back burner and try to gain the initiative again by concentrating on building positive initiatives domestically. Many of the SNP's achievements in positive health statistics, social housing, better transport infrastructure and low crime figures have been lost in the white noise of the constitutional debate. 

It's time for the SNP to get back on the front foot with more radical social policies than they've previously been proposing. It can be done, but I feel they need a change of mindset to achieve it.

 

[GTG_03]

48% not wanting a referendum at all isn't a good start. Sturgeon needs to stick by her guns tho as that may change if/when people realise that we're out the single market and it's not tariff free.
Maybot wont allow the most powerfully devolved parliament in the world to have one before we leave and although she'll be gone by then, her successor will no doubt be of the same mind.
It'll be in 2020 imo and it'll be mighty close.

[Baxter Parp]

2 hours ago, btb said:

IndyRef2 should be put on the backburner until after the Brexit deal is completed.

It was never anything else.

[Guest Bob Mahelp]

3 hours ago, Baxter Parp said:

http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/15366020.Drop_plans_for_second_independence_referendum_or_lose_top_job__Sturgeon_warned/

Herald vote not going to plan shock.

The Herald readership tends to be largely pro-independence.