When will indyref2 happen?

[Colkitto]

The SNP will undoubtedly continue in an independent Scotland. They're an established party. People will continue to vote for them if they pursue the right policies and keep up and coming talent within the party.  

[mjw]

There are people in the SNP who shouldn't be in the same party but are because independence.

There are people out there who believe independence will force SLab back to being a left wing socialist party. These people need a party to vote for to get independence.

 

UKIP are an interesting parallel for the SNP post independence, look how they've fared since brexit.

 

 

[yoda]

The FT (paywall, obvs) had an article before the 2014 referendum with a handful of economists rating the alternative currency options (out of 10).

https://www.ft.com/content/e635505a-328f-11e4-a5a2-00144feabdc0

[renton]

Take the Tory party, for example. What does it look like in an independent Scotland. It's strongholds largely in rural, sparsely populated areas. Without it's parent party being pulled towards a radically anti immigration stance in the home counties, and driven to zero regulation by the demands of the city of London, how does it's policies evolve in Scotland - what's it's natural philosophy? It's Scottish demographics are different in some respects to it's UK parent. The composition and outlook of the Scottish economy would also push a fiscally right wing party in different directions to that of the UK parent. Would it become more socially conservative, yet economically more centrist? What demographics would it seek to be serving?

I think trying to map current party policy and philosophy in devolved Scotland is an unreliable map for what ideas and people they'd try to serve in an independent Scotland.

[DI Bruce Robertson]

Can't argue with that but it narrows down the options post independence unless they get their act together.

I agree with your post, it's not up to the SNP or the remnants left of it to increase the options, it's up to the other parties to come up with an alternative, at the moment, Labour provide an alternative to nobody, that's why they are losing support.

[kirkyblue2]

7 minutes ago, yoda said:

The FT (paywall, obvs) had an article before the 2014 referendum with a handful of economists rating the alternative currency options (out of 10).

https://www.ft.com/content/e635505a-328f-11e4-a5a2-00144feabdc0

Joining the Euro doesn't seem popular.

[DI Bruce Robertson]

Joining the Euro doesn't seem popular.

Ooooooft

[DI Bruce Robertson]

Ooooooft

Backed up by this quote from the first contributor.

All three political parties have made this clear.

All 3? Wtf?

[Ivo den Bieman]

The irony is that a vote for independence is the quickest way to ensure that Scottish politics moves beyoind the stage of being utterly dominated by the SNP.

I don't for a second believe, as some do, that the SNP will say "job done" and disband once deals are agreed and the Union Jack is lowered for the last time over Edinburgh castle. They will continue as a broadly centrist, pragmatic, pro-EU party. However, it would not surprise me one bit if the likes of John Swinney and Mike Russell defected to a post-independence centre right party, as both are firmly on the right of the political spectrum.

The SNP's big achilles heel is their utter mania for centralisation and hollowing out local decision making /service delivery, but for many in the electorate it seems they will park any reservations, for now, in lieu of any more credible alternative coming along. Arguably, the SNP are the most disciplined and united political force operating in the British Isles at present.

Independence, when it is won, may well see the revivial in fortunes of the Tories, who are only the opposition at present as the Labour party is such a pathetic mess, led by someone who is so clearly out of her depth, and with no obvious better alternative waiting in the wings. A breaking of the toxic link with an out of touch and extremist leadership in London can only help whomever is leading a re-branded centre right party north of the border.

Opposition from the left seem more likely to come from the Greens at pesent; latest polls suggest that they are beginning to snap at Labour's heels for third place. Labour's downward flat spin will only steepen in the manner of many formerly social democratic / soft left parties who sold out to manage neoliberalism in the last 20-25 years. The vote that used to be weighed in Labour's favour has blown away in a gale and won't be back.

The Liberals will continue to be a lying, principle-free irrelevance either as part of the UK, or in an independent Scotland. The current Westminster poll has them on 4 % which is frankly 4% more than they deserve.

Would expect an independent Scotland to rely much more on coalition government in future, in the manner of the Dutch and similar countries. To be honest, I think that will produce better and more pluralistic governments. I'd also hope for a better quality of debate /opposition than the juvenile and shallow drivel we have at present.

Edited March 20, 2017 by Ivo den Bieman

[oneteaminglasgow]

28 minutes ago, Granny Danger said:

I think this is correct though I think the centre in Scotland will be further to the left.

I agree, and would certainly hope this was the case.

I also think post-independence that the current parties would all have to go through a period of rebranding and re-evaluating their positions. Both Labour and Conservative parties have absolutely toxic images in Scotland just now, and if either want to have any sort of success I'd think they'd have to shed the association with the pre-independence parties (and obviously get some competent people in in the vase of SLab).

[DI Bruce Robertson]

The irony is that a vote for independence is the quickest way to ensure that Scottish politics moves beyoind the stage of being utterly dominated by the SNP.
I don't for a second believe, as some do, that the SNP will say "job done" and disband once deals are agreed and the Union Jack is lowered for the last time over Edinburgh castle. They will continue as a broadly centrist, pragmatic, pro-EU party. However, it would not surprise me one bit if the likes of John Swinney and Mike Russell defected to a post-independence centre right party, as both are firmly on the right of the political spectrum.
The SNP's big achilles heel is their utter mania for centralisation and hollowing out local decision making /service delivery, but for many in the electorate it seems they will park any reservations, for now, in lieu of any more credible alternative coming along. Arguably, the SNP are the most disciplined and united political force operating in the British Isles at present.
Independence, when it is won, may well see the revivial in fortunes of the Tories, who are only the opposition at present as the Labour party is such a pathetic mess, led by someone who is so clearly out of her depth, and with no obvious better alternative waiting in the wings. A breaking of the toxic link with an out of touch and extremist leadership in London can only help whomever is leading a re-branded centre right party north of the border.
Opposition from the left seem more likely to come from the Greens at pesent; latest polls suggest that they are beginning to snap at Labour's heels for third place. Labour's downward flat spin will only steepen in the manner of many formerly social democratic / soft left parties who sold out to manage neoliberalism in the last 20-25 years. The vote that used to be weighed in Labour's favour has blown away in a gale and won't be back.
The Liberals will continue to be a lying, principle-free irrelevance either as part of the UK, or in an independent Scotland. The current Westminster poll has them on 4 % which is frankly 4% more than they deserve.
Would expect an independent Scotland to rely much more on coalition government in future, in the manner of the Dutch and similar countries. To be honest, I think that will produce better and more pluralistic governments. I'd also hope for a better quality of debate /opposition than the juvenile and shallow drivel we have at present.

Where have you been all my life?
Fantastic post!

[Granny Danger]

4 minutes ago, oneteaminglasgow said:

I agree, and would certainly hope this was the case.

I also think post-independence that the current parties would all have to go through a period of rebranding and re-evaluating their positions. Both Labour and Conservative parties have absolutely toxic images in Scotland just now, and if either want to have any sort of success I'd think they'd have to shed the association with the pre-independence parties (and obviously get some competent people in in the vase of SLab).

There are many in the SNP that would be part of a new Labour Party, whether it is called that or something else, and whether it includes part of SLab. In terms of personell the former SNP folk would dominate it simply because SLab is totally bereft of talent.  There are folk in Scottish Labour who support Independence and hopefully there are some talented folk amongst them.

People like Dugdale will be out on their arses either by their own choice or because others simply won't work with them, they will be no great loss.

I find the idea that we will have a one-party state for any length of time fanciful.  It is neither democratic or practical.  It should also be borne in mind that once we achieve Independence there will be nowhere for politicians to hide.  We will be responsible for our own fate and our elected representatives held to account.  Also we will not be encumbered by the ludicrous FPTP voting system that allows parties with less than 40% of the popular vote to form a majority government; there will be far greater accountability and more room for political divergence.

[williemillersmoustache]

27 minutes ago, renton said:

Take the Tory party, for example. What does it look like in an independent Scotland. It's strongholds largely in rural, sparsely populated areas. Without it's parent party being pulled towards a radically anti immigration stance in the home counties, and driven to zero regulation by the demands of the city of London, how does it's policies evolve in Scotland - what's it's natural philosophy? It's Scottish demographics are different in some respects to it's UK parent. The composition and outlook of the Scottish economy would also push a fiscally right wing party in different directions to that of the UK parent. Would it become more socially conservative, yet economically more centrist? What demographics would it seek to be serving?

I think trying to map current party policy and philosophy in devolved Scotland is an unreliable map for what ideas and people they'd try to serve in an independent Scotland.

There is every chance that I might vote conservative in an independent Scotland.

I mean some current Tory policies are quite good, as long as they aren't enacted and legislated for by complete buffoons or opportunistic c***s. And potentially when one of them rises from their crypt to say "we are going to make the best deal for all of us" that "us" might actually include me in an iScotland.

[mjw]

Slab clearly are itching for the day they poll in single figures.
ETA: Glorious

That's Dunc, Daisley,Fatty Foulkes and history woman chasing the greens on Twitter.
Gordon Brewer can be pleased with his hatchet job on Patrick Harvey yesterday.

[Benjamin_Nevis]

Post Independence I'd expect the SNP to carry on as is until a Scottish General Election, following which I think we'd see the end of any one party having an outright majority. I suspect a series of centre/centre left coalitions will form the Scottish Government for the next few parliaments. 

I'd expect the current SNP to lose a few MSPs to the left, assuming SLab is reformed into a halfway sensible socialist-type party and a few to the right. The Greens will be a bigger deal as well. Tories will possibly grow in strength, thought not massively. If SLab are properly reformed, the best thing about it will be seeing arseholes like Dugdale and Jackie fucking Baillie getting emptied into political oblivion. 

Oh, and no one will give a f**k about the Lib Dems. 

 

[Ross.]

1 hour ago, kirkyblue2 said:

Can't argue with that but it narrows down the options post independence unless they get their act together.

I think there are enough capable people, who, post Independence, would fancy the job of resurrecting their name.

[Ivo den Bieman]

jeez, Duncan Hothersall. Good to have a reminder of why I blocked him on twitter years ago.

[WhiteRoseKillie]

I think this is correct though I think the centre in Scotland will be further to the left.

^^^ This.

There is simply no way of telling. The Unionist parties are currently so wedded to their Westminster parent parties that they themselves would have to find a whole new identity post independence. It also depends on what systems and infrastructures an independent Scotland puts in place. The governance of Scotland would ultimately push parties onto different grounds than the partial management of Scotland in the Union, that is their current bailiwick.
What your voting for is self government. What you do with it is up to all of us, afterwards.

^^^ And this.

[mjw]

jeez, Duncan Hothersall. Good to have a reminder of why I blocked him on twitter years ago.

My timeline is mostly Duncan or Duncan retweeted.
I really should block but he's a reminder of why I'd never vote labour at the moment.

[Ivo den Bieman]

1 minute ago, mjw said:

My timeline is mostly Duncan or Duncan retweeted.
I really should block but he's a reminder of why I'd never vote labour at the moment.

If he's not actually a bot, then he's probably he kind of 'bot Peter Mandelson dreamt of inventing at the end of the last century.