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Holyrood '16 polls and predictions


Crùbag

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Labour WILL win ? Surely you're having a laugh ?

Oh yes.

Considering their outstanding successes in 2011, during the referendum and in 2015, we'd be as well declaring the winner now - Labour.

IMO.

;)

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Major irritant.

Aff wi' his heid.

Agreed, but now we get onto the issue of the apologetic Rabbie Burns style something is missing apostrophe when writing in Scots... :)

Will be interesting to see if pro-Union tactical voting takes off in a bigger way in the 2016 election. That might make Shetland, to name but one example, more difficult than it would be on a uniform swing.

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Will be interesting to see if pro-Union tactical voting takes off in a bigger way in the 2016 election. That might make Shetland, to name but one example, more difficult than it would be on a uniform swing.

Why would tactical voting "take off in a bigger way" in a proportional system?

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Why would tactical voting "take off in a bigger way" in a proportional system?

AMS isn't immune to tactical voting.

First of all, the majority of the 129 MSPs are elected under FPTP, so voting tactically against the SNP is certainly a possibility in the constituency seats.

Then the list seats are determined using d'Hondt PR, the same as the European elections. At the Euros, everyone knew that the SNP and Labour would win 2 seats apiece, the Tories would get 1 and the final seat would either be for UKIP or a 3rd SNP seat. Thus, anti-SNP tactical voters knew to go with UKIP. A similar thing could be arranged at Holyrood.

I can't see it happening though.

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In general I would agree, but it may have played a part in Ian Murray retaining his seat.

Tactical voting is effective if organised over time - it worked, for example, to get rid of all Tory MPs in the first place.

The campaign at the GE was not effective because it was not well established and stank of pure panic.

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In general I would agree, but it may have played a part in Ian Murray retaining his seat.

Tactical voting is effective if organised over time - it worked, for example, to get rid of all Tory MPs in the first place.

The campaign at the GE was not effective because it was not well established and stank of pure panic.

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Well there's that, and the statistical impossibility of tactical voting having a significant impact when the only show in town hoovered up fully 50% of the vote.

But still, anything that keeps embittered Britnats going between this shoeing and their next shoeing is to be encouraged, at least for the benefit of our hard-pressed counselling and mental health services.

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