FuzzyAffro Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 Where else are you getting the votes from to become independent? We need, what, 200,000ish people to change their vote from no to yes, at the same time as ensuring those who voted yes remain a yes. Throwing a hand grenade at Westminster and destabilising the UK wont help anyone. See that's a straw man. Who mentioned destablising the UK? The unionist parties are already trying to weaken and divide the SNP, Salmond is going down there to troll the shit out of them and provoke hysterical reactions which will aid the independence cause. The SNP, meanwhile, are going to try to extract concessions which will do the same. It is in nobodies interests to destabilise the UK, only you have said that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongTimeLurker Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 Which is exactly why they've been trying to perpetuate one since Friday? Think so, even though it's an extremely lame one. Will be interesting to see if there's any movement in the polls. Even a couple of percentage points would save the jobs of a few Labour hacks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kyle Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 See that's a straw man. Who mentioned destablising the UK? The unionist parties are already trying to weaken and divide the SNP, Salmond is going down there to troll the shit out of them and provoke hysterical reactions which will aid the independence cause. The SNP, meanwhile, are going to try to extract concessions which will do the same. It is in nobodies interests to destabilise the UK, only you have said that. Throwing a hand grenade at Westminster whilst there's a minority government in place would destabilise the UK. Whether that's by design or collateral damage is irrelevant IMO, and it wouldn't strengthen our case for independence. I'm not sure if you're seeing the bigger picture here or not, but reason, debate and showing what the SNP can do with more financial powers will serve the SNP/Yes much better than winding up a few posh boys in London ever will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FuzzyAffro Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 Whatever, you're a bit tiresome in your utter desperation to be reasonable. Politics is a very nasty business, by far the nastiest of all, and we are literally at all out war with the British establishment for control of Scotland. Playing nicey-nicey is not going to win, they don't so neither should we. Part of the strategy is to be competent and win new powers and use them well, but part of it is also to troll the shit out of WM and provoke them into disarray and hysterical anti-Scottish reactions/rants that can be used against them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thumper Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 Unfortunately for P&B's resident McGlashanalist, Salmond will almost certainly shelve his occasional snide persona in favour of actually doing some work with the fifty-odd MPs in his camp when Parliament is reformed. To do otherwise would be plainly counterproductive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kyle Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 Whatever, you're a bit tiresome in your utter desperation to be reasonable. Politics is a very nasty business, by far the nastiest of all, and we are literally at all out war with the British establishment for control of Scotland. Playing nicey-nicey is not going to win, they don't so neither should we. Part of the strategy is to be competent and win new powers and use them well, but part of it is also to troll the shit out of WM and provoke them into disarray and hysterical anti-Scottish reactions/rants that can be used against them. I think a huge part of the SNP's success has been down to their positivity actually. They ran a positive campaign in 2011 which, coupled with their competence as a minority government from 2007, saw them come from no where in the polls and win a majority. They Doubled the outright support for independence in the space of a couple of years through positivity. They've maintained and even builtthat support through progressive, positive politics. I'm not going out of my way to be overly reasonable. We can't expect 200,000 people to change their mind on the independence issue by spitting the dummy and acting like arse holes at Westminster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Granny Danger Posted April 7, 2015 Author Share Posted April 7, 2015 I still cannot find the deatils of the latest YouGov Scottish poll on their website; that is a little unusual. The raw data is usually good for extracting useful information such as demogrphic trends, likliehood to vote and number of undecideds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongTimeLurker Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 A geographical breakdown would also be interesting to see, because it would tell us whether the swing from Labour to SNP is uniform or as the Ashcroft polls predicted skewed towards Labour strongholds in a way that makes SNP gains more likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 Christ, looking at these Polls the No result was almost worth it. Almost! This will make 2011 look barely amusing. What a fun morning May 8th will be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 Just read through this link properly. http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/conlist_scot.html#Gordon Predicting: SNP - 48 Seats Labour - 11 Seats Lib - 0 Con - 0 As scenic as that would be, it predicts Curran will hold on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Lambies Doos Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 Just read through this link properly. http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/conlist_scot.html#Gordon Predicting: SNP - 48 Seats Labour - 11 Seats Lib - 0 Con - 0 As scenic as that would be, it predicts Curran will hold on 2 problems with this site. 1. It is applying a uniform swing. 2. That swing is based on GE 2010 and does not reflect HR 2011 (yes I know the boundaries are different) So when it says Curran will hold on, its way off the mark... as the swing to SNP will be far greater in Glasgow imo than rest of country. Now this is good news all round, because its Glasgow and West Scotland that have the hefty majorities. John Curtice explains it better than me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongTimeLurker Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 A New Statesman blog explains it here: http://linkis.com/www.newstatesman.com/J9sVc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MONKMAN Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 I'll keep it vague as not to be naming people but heard from someone working for a Unionist party in a South of Scotland constituency campaign that the SNP are comfrortably the main contenders. The info from the doorstep is better for the SNP than even the polls indicate. If the SNP are in with a shout in this seat, it really is on everywhere on the mainland. I've been hearing both D&G and Dumfriesshire are getting unbelievable support for the SNP on the streets, with a real chance of going yellow after the 7th. If someone had said that even a couple of months back, I'd have been looking to get them sectioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 I've been hearing both D&G and Dumfriesshire are getting unbelievable support for the SNP on the streets, with a real chance of going yellow after the 7th. If someone had said that even a couple of months back, I'd have been looking to get them sectioned. Any word on Berwickshire? I'd say the SNP have a chance there if they basically hoover up Michael Moore's vote, probably have Tories as favourites and Libbies second though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MONKMAN Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 Any word on Berwickshire? I'd say the SNP have a chance there if they basically hoover up Michael Moore's vote, probably have Tories as favourites and Libbies second though Absolutely no idea about Berwickshire, but if they're in with a shout in those two then I'd be sure they could take anywhere on the mainland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Granny Danger Posted April 7, 2015 Author Share Posted April 7, 2015 2 problems with this site. 1. It is applying a uniform swing. 2. That swing is based on GE 2010 and does not reflect HR 2011 (yes I know the boundaries are different) So when it says Curran will hold on, its way off the mark... as the swing to SNP will be far greater in Glasgow imo than rest of country. Now this is good news all round, because its Glasgow and West Scotland that have the hefty majorities. John Curtice explains it better than me. I'd take your explanation before John Curtice's any day of the week pal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Granny Danger Posted April 7, 2015 Author Share Posted April 7, 2015 This is the ONLY detail on the YouGov website regarding the Scotland only poll. Usually there would be a number of other questions, not the least being likelihood of voting. SNP ahead in every demographic; age (including 60+), gender, socil-economic group. 40% of 2010 Labour voters and 34% of 2010 LibDem voters now voting SNP. http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/p30qrdyv00/Sun_Results_Scotland_150331_Website_V1.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FuzzyAffro Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 This is the ONLY detail on the YouGov website regarding the Scotland only poll. Usually there would be a number of other questions, not the least being likelihood of voting. SNP ahead in every demographic; age (including 60+), gender, socil-economic group. 40% of 2010 Labour voters and 34% of 2010 LibDem voters now voting SNP. http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/p30qrdyv00/Sun_Results_Scotland_150331_Website_V1.pdf Old b*****ds who voted no have a right cheek voting SNP now the c***s, I'd love to hear their reasoning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlyerTon Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 Where else are you getting the votes from to become independent? We need, what, 200,000ish people to change their vote from no to yes, at the same time as ensuring those who voted yes remain a yes. Throwing a hand grenade at Westminster and destabilising the UK wont help anyone. If only it was 200,000 ish but it's actually nearer 400,000. 383,937 to be exact. Looking at the demographic of Scotland that figure is roughly the amount of non Scots living here from RUK. If it was a born in Scotland vote we would have had independence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FuzzyAffro Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 If only it was 200,000 ish but it's actually nearer 400,000. 383,937 to be exact. Looking at the demographic of Scotland that figure is roughly the amount of non Scots living here from RUK. If it was a born in Scotland vote we would have had independence. People will call me racist, but I do think it should have been a vote purely for Scottish born residents of Scotland. That wasn't like a normal election, that was deciding the future of Scotland possibly for the next thousand years. Only Scottish people should have been allowed to vote, its frankly outrageous that we were forced to stay in the UK by people from elsewhere in the UK. I even thought of a points system; Scottish born residents of Scotland two votes, non-Scottish residents of Scotland one vote, Scottish born non-residents of Scotland one vote. Every other country on the planet was able to determine their own destiny, in Scotland we had our self-determination thwarted by people who might only be here for university or staying for a few months. It's outrageous. People can call me racist all they want, I am right, and they are being hysterical. I'm not proposing non-Scots should have been kicked out of the country or shouldn't be allowed to vote in all other elections, but the referendum was different and it should have been only Scottish born residents of Scotland that were allowed to vote. If it was we would be preparing for independence right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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