Thistle_do_nicely Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 I think the SNP's motif, specifically in the Scottish elections in 2016 should be: "VOTE SNP TO KEEP LABOUR OUT. TORIES ARE ALREADY FUCKED UP HERE" But what about the Liberal DemocrahahahaHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA sorry, forgot about how hilariously irrelevant they are Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kejan Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 Hopefully Yes parties can keep up the pressure on Westminsiter. Main fear really is apathy and it turning in to a Labour v Tory thing up here, but hearing the disgruntled Labour vote is pretty exciting (as an SNP man), but they have huge majorities in Glasgow. Can they really be taken? Some over 50% of the vote. I don't know what's best for Glasgow. If the SNP don't stand in a certain ward and let the Greens or SSP have a fair crack at it, and vice versa for an area that the SNP have a better chance like John Mason's old seat. Be terrific if SNP and Yes parties could send 25 or more MPs back down there. I think realistically doubling the SNP numbers be a good haul though considering the huge majorities that Labour have in certain areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 Hopefully Yes parties can keep up the pressure on Westminsiter. Main fear really is apathy and it turning in to a Labour v Tory thing up here, but hearing the disgruntled Labour vote is pretty exciting (as an SNP man), but they have huge majorities in Glasgow. Can they really be taken? Some over 50% of the vote. I don't know what's best for Glasgow. If the SNP don't stand in a certain ward and let the Greens or SSP have a fair crack at it, and vice versa for an area that the SNP have a better chance like John Mason's old seat. Be terrific if SNP and Yes parties could send 25 or more MPs back down there. I think realistically doubling the SNP numbers be a good haul though considering the huge majorities that Labour have in certain areas. If those polling figures from May 2009 could be replicate, the SNP would win 44 of the 59 seats. Some say that in itself would be a mandate for UDI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrontPage Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 tbh any UDI would realistically need over 1,900,000 votes, which will never happen for the SNP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confidemus Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 tbh any UDI would realistically need over 1,900,000 votes, which will never happen for the SNP Piece of piss. Just tell Scotland's pensioners their pension will stop UNLESS they vote SNP. Over 2,000,000 votes easy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Lambies Doos Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/scottish-voting-intention As suspected MrBairn, your figures are for Holyrood not WM So my initial comment of 'nonsense' still stands Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 As suspected MrBairn, your figures are for Holyrood not WM So my initial comment of 'nonsense' still stands As suspected, you're talking pish. On the link I provided, the polls are split into three categories. Westminster first, and then the two Holyrood votes. In the first column, the 16th poll from the top is the poll in question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Lambies Doos Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 As suspected MrBairn, your figures are for Holyrood not WM So my initial comment of 'nonsense' still stands Actually, I am wrong. Apologies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 Actually, I am wrong. Apologies Accepted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Lambies Doos Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 Accepted Thank You Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 Hopefully Yes parties can keep up the pressure on Westminsiter. Main fear really is apathy and it turning in to a Labour v Tory thing up here, but hearing the disgruntled Labour vote is pretty exciting (as an SNP man), but they have huge majorities in Glasgow. Can they really be taken? Some over 50% of the vote. I don't know what's best for Glasgow. If the SNP don't stand in a certain ward and let the Greens or SSP have a fair crack at it, and vice versa for an area that the SNP have a better chance like John Mason's old seat. Be terrific if SNP and Yes parties could send 25 or more MPs back down there. I think realistically doubling the SNP numbers be a good haul though considering the huge majorities that Labour have in certain areas. A 5% unifomr swing to SNP gives them 3 extra seats, an 8% swing to SNP gives them 19. That's the target. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fotbawmad Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 TBF, Labour will lose seats to SNP up here and Tories will lose seats to UKIP down south. So it will all even out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 TBF, Labour will lose seats to SNP up here and Tories will lose seats to UKIP down south. So it will all even out. The Tories are going to lose very few seats to UKIP. Farage will take Thanet South and Douglas Carswell will hold on to his seat, but that's likely it, imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strichener Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 The Tories are going to lose very few seats to UKIP. Farage will take Thanet South and Douglas Carswell will hold on to his seat, but that's likely it, imo. Lets wait and see who else defects before making these predictions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 The Tories are going to lose very few seats to UKIP. Farage will take Thanet South and Douglas Carswell will hold on to his seat, but that's likely it, imo. Looks like a close run thing in Reckless' seat. How about Eastleigh? They came a good second there in the byelection. In a national election, the Tories won't be able to spare the resources they did for the byelection, which might give UKIP a better chance there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 Looks like a close run thing in Reckless' seat. How about Eastleigh? They came a good second there in the byelection. In a national election, the Tories won't be able to spare the resources they did for the byelection, which might give UKIP a better chance there. I think Reckless has a 50-50 chance to win the seat at the by-election but will almost certainly lose it in May. I feel like parties like UKIP and the SNP (at WM level) have their best results as a protest in by-elections but when the GE comes around people will ultimately decide between Red or Blue. The difference with by-elections is that they cause people to really think about local issues and elect a local MP, when the GE comes around, although you're voting for an MP, it's really fought on national boundaries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrontPage Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 I think Reckless has a 50-50 chance to win the seat at the by-election but will almost certainly lose it in May. I feel like parties like UKIP and the SNP (at WM level) have their best results as a protest in by-elections but when the GE comes around people will ultimately decide between Red or Blue. The difference with by-elections is that they cause people to really think about local issues and elect a local MP, when the GE comes around, although you're voting for an MP, it's really fought on national boundaries. The media coverage follows the leaders around non-stop, the television debates are going to be leader v leader, its no wonder people don't see the minor parties as ever being an option at GE's. Even if Farage gets in on the act with the media coverage, gaining something like 15-20% of the vote nationally will result in 0 seats, such is the quirk of the FPTP system that allows Labour to gain a majority with about 39% of the popular vote and gives the Liberals less than a 10% of the seats with about 20-25% of the vote. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 I think Reckless has a 50-50 chance to win the seat at the by-election but will almost certainly lose it in May. I feel like parties like UKIP and the SNP (at WM level) have their best results as a protest in by-elections but when the GE comes around people will ultimately decide between Red or Blue. The difference with by-elections is that they cause people to really think about local issues and elect a local MP, when the GE comes around, although you're voting for an MP, it's really fought on national boundaries. The SNP is an interesting one for me, because I think the whole Labour tribal loyalty thing is crumblng to an extent. Even if there are Glasgow seats with huge WM majorities, much of that comfort zone was wiped out a year later at Holyrood - and then those heartlands defied the party on Indy. Kirkcaldy is a good example of that: Since re-electing Brown in 2010, it kicked out it's Labour MSP for an SNP representative and then voted in favour of Indy to the tune of 79% or thereabouts. So those 2010 majorities don't look so safe to me, added to that the SNP will have a strong message to take into it (i.e. vote for us to hold them to their promises) and the fact that 5 years of coalition government means the idea of non majorities is no longer so abnormal and more folk might consider jumping to the SNP this time out. one thing I think the SNP should do is form some kind of progressive alliance with Plaid Cymru, the Greens, any other minor progressive parties - if they can build even a skeleton 'national' presence it would surely give them a right to demand a place in the TV debates, which would certianly stop the whole thing sliding into Labour vs the tories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 The SNP is an interesting one for me, because I think the whole Labour tribal loyalty thing is crumblng to an extent. Even if there are Glasgow seats with huge WM majorities, much of that comfort zone was wiped out a year later at Holyrood - and then those heartlands defied the party on Indy. Kirkcaldy is a good example of that: Since re-electing Brown in 2010, it kicked out it's Labour MSP for an SNP representative and then voted in favour of Indy to the tune of 79% or thereabouts. So those 2010 majorities don't look so safe to me, added to that the SNP will have a strong message to take into it (i.e. vote for us to hold them to their promises) and the fact that 5 years of coalition government means the idea of non majorities is no longer so abnormal and more folk might consider jumping to the SNP this time out. one thing I think the SNP should do is form some kind of progressive alliance with Plaid Cymru, the Greens, any other minor progressive parties - if they can build even a skeleton 'national' presence it would surely give them a right to demand a place in the TV debates, which would certianly stop the whole thing sliding into Labour vs the tories. Bolded - Is that factual or just from an opinion poll? Couldn't agree more with the last paragraph. It would help if there was a centre-left party supporting English independence as well and then they could all come together on a platform of breaking up the UK or at very least full federalism. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 Bolded - Is that factual or just from an opinion poll? Couldn't agree more with the last paragraph. It would help if there was a centre-left party supporting English independence as well and then they could all come together on a platform of breaking up the UK or at very least full federalism. Factual. There was a breakdown of who voted what by council wards. My part of edinburgh was 38/62 against. Shitehawks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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