Ludo*1 Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 YouGov predicts SNP will make 'massive' gains. 'Peter Kellner, of YouGov, said the SNP could make huge gains at Westminster, possibly reaching 26 seats – almost half of the 59 constituencies north of the border – at Labour’s expense. Kellner said Labour has “big problems” in Scotland after failing to convince many of their traditional supporters to vote against independence.' - The Guardian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mizfit Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 The Tories have reportedly made pete wishart's Perth and Kinross seat the number 1 priority. Can't see him losing it. Or at least I hope not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICTJohnboy Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 YouGov predicts SNP will make 'massive' gains. 'Peter Kellner, of YouGov, said the SNP could make huge gains at Westminster, possibly reaching 26 seats – almost half of the 59 constituencies north of the border – at Labour’s expense. Kellner said Labour has “big problems” in Scotland after failing to convince many of their traditional supporters to vote against independence.' - The Guardian. 26 seats would be a very realistic target. Still not sure if Nicola's the best choice to take the party further forward. I would prefer Angus Robertson. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confidemus Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 Peter Kellner has proved depressingly right in the past. I see no reason to doubt him now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaffenThinMint Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 YouGov predicts SNP will make 'massive' gains. 'Peter Kellner, of YouGov, said the SNP could make huge gains at Westminster, possibly reaching 26 seats – almost half of the 59 constituencies north of the border – at Labour’s expense. Kellner said Labour has “big problems” in Scotland after failing to convince many of their traditional supporters to vote against independence.' - The Guardian. I wouldn't trust Peter Kellner nor the Tory member owned YouGov. As the Greens, UKIP & BNP all found to their cost, he's a history of providing the media with soundbites giving minor/regional parties unrealistic expectations they haven't a hope of matching at the ballot box so any sort of advance can still be termed "disappointing compared to what they'd hoped for". More to the point, any prospect of Labour losing seats to the SNP up north is likely to be answered with them wasting wildly disproportionate amounts of campaign funds, time and energy "up north" to the detriment of their campaign elsewhere - much to the Tories benefit. Calling shenanigans on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ludo*1 Posted October 1, 2014 Author Share Posted October 1, 2014 I wouldn't trust Peter Kellner nor the Tory member owned YouGov. As the Greens, UKIP & BNP all found to their cost, he's a history of providing the media with soundbites giving minor/regional parties unrealistic expectations they haven't a hope of matching at the ballot box so any sort of advance can still be termed "disappointing compared to what they'd hoped for". More to the point, any prospect of Labour losing seats to the SNP up north is likely to be answered with them wasting wildly disproportionate amounts of campaign funds, time and energy "up north" to the detriment of their campaign elsewhere - much to the Tories benefit. Calling shenanigans on this one. I can't see SNP getting anything like 26 seats. 12 is a very optimistic push in my opinion. That'd be doubling what they have now. The fact Kellner is even mentioning 26 as plausible is encouraging regardless of the intention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 I remember at the height of SNP popularity in their first term after Glasgow East they were expected to win a landslide and take almost every WM seat in Scotland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confidemus Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 I remember at the height of SNP popularity in their first term after Glasgow East they were expected to win a landslide and take almost every WM seat in Scotland. You don't even remember Knightmare on CITV, so shut it junior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Lambies Doos Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 I remember at the height of SNP popularity in their first term after Glasgow East they were expected to win a landslide and take almost every WM seat in Scotland. What nonsense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 Scottish opinion/Mail on Sunday WM opinion poll, 20th May 2009 Labour: 27% SNP: 43% lib dem: 11% conservative: 11% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC92 Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 Scottish opinion/Mail on Sunday WM opinion poll, 20th May 2009 Labour: 27% SNP: 43% lib dem: 11% conservative: 11% Labour's 2010 election pitch was basically "we might be shite but you have to vote for us otherwise you'll get the tories!!!" and it worked spectacularly well up here. They're bound to try it again next time. I'd be interested to see if it works as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Lambies Doos Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 Scottish opinion/Mail on Sunday WM opinion poll, 20th May 2009 Labour: 27% SNP: 43% lib dem: 11% conservative: 11% Do u have a link for this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Milners Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 SNP need major swing to get 26 seats. It looks like Lib Dems are away to lose the majority of their seats in scotland going with the polls while Labour is down a few points while SNP is up 15 percent but that might all changes when it comes to May. The big question is if Labour voters that voted Yes and going to vote for SNP next May? They are hurting at the moment and quite a lot have joined SNP but will they feel the same next May? I would expect a lot of Labour voters to look at keeping the Tories out and vote them again but it will be interesting to see if there will be major swing in favour of SNP Anyway here is the Scotland General election results of 2010 - check out Results by constituency and see how much the SNP need major swing on nearly all of the seats. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_United_Kingdom_general_election_results_in_Scotland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottsdad Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 Sadly, I reckon a lot of the sheep will vote Labour to "keep the Tories out". The same ones who voted No to keep the Tories in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AberdeenBud Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 I remember at the height of SNP popularity in their first term after Glasgow East they were expected to win a landslide and take almost every WM seat in Scotland. Were they, aye? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AberdeenBud Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 I voted Labour the last two GE's, won't be doing so again for the foreseeable future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gordon EF Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 I'm pretty sure he didn't say he thought the SNP would take 26 seats. He was just writing about what could happen if they did. 26 seats is wildly optimistic and would require a huge swing. Everyone knows it's much harder for the SNP to make gains at WM due to the 'keep the Tories out' vote. 11/12 seats would be a pretty excellent result for the SNP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 Labour's 2010 election pitch was basically "we might be shite but you have to vote for us otherwise you'll get the tories!!!" and it worked spectacularly well up here. They're bound to try it again next time. I'd be interested to see if it works as well. Yup, and it will be their tactic in the 2016 Scottish Elections as well. "VOTE LABOUR, STOP THE SNP!!!!!!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 Do u have a link for this? http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/scottish-voting-intention Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confidemus Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 I think the SNP's motif, specifically in the Scottish elections in 2016 should be: "VOTE SNP TO KEEP LABOUR OUT. TORIES ARE ALREADY FUCKED UP HERE" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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