superbigal Posted August 22, 2014 Author Share Posted August 22, 2014 Yes the debate over handicaps is valid. That was exactly how Rory in Edinburgh cleared over £100,000 from hills in edinburgh based on my tips a couple of seasons ago. It was on Scottish Cup 1st round matches between all the non league teams. If you want to read the thread you can go to betfairs forums and search for superbigal The point is we were betting the short price favourite( Say around 1/5) to win by 4 or more goals at prices of around 4/1 or 9/2. The standard handicapping charts I believe will be based on the Premiership. To put it simply Man City at 1/5 to beat Crystal palace are probably less likely to win 4-0 or bigger than Brora Rangers at 1/5 to beat Turriff. I am sure Cartwright is compiling all this data. I certainly do Where are your prices by the way Owen ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Star Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 Correct me if I'm wrong Allan, but that suggests to me, that 1/5 for Brora Rangers to beat Turriff is too long in the first place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nocko Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 Yes the debate over handicaps is valid. That was exactly how Rory in Edinburgh cleared over £100,000 from hills in edinburgh based on my tips a couple of seasons ago. It was on Scottish Cup 1st round matches between all the non league teams. If you want to read the thread you can go to betfairs forums and search for superbigal The point is we were betting the short price favourite( Say around 1/5) to win by 4 or more goals at prices of around 4/1 or 9/2. The standard handicapping charts I believe will be based on the Premiership. To put it simply Man City at 1/5 to beat Crystal palace are probably less likely to win 4-0 or bigger than Brora Rangers at 1/5 to beat Turriff. I am sure Cartwright is compiling all this data. I certainly do Where are your prices by the way Owen ? Posted them this morning on a separate thread http://www.pieandbovril.com/forum/index.php/topic/215968-weekend-junior-odds-23814/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superbigal Posted August 22, 2014 Author Share Posted August 22, 2014 Correct me if I'm wrong Allan, but that suggests to me, that 1/5 for Brora Rangers to beat Turriff is too long in the first place. You do mis understand. The teams and prices are hypothetical. Ignore them for now. If both teams have a similar chance of winning there is still a more significant chance of a drubbing in non-league. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superbigal Posted August 22, 2014 Author Share Posted August 22, 2014 William Hill Scottish Cup odds from William HIll Saturday 23rd August HOME DRAW AWAY East Region 13/5 Ballingry 11/4 Bonnyrigg 8/114/11 Bo'ness 7/2 Penicuik 5/111/10 Carnoustie 5/2 Broxburn 7/48/13 Fauldhouse 16/5 Armadale 11/41/2 Kelty 10/3 Sauchie 10/32/5 Linlithgow 10/3 Hill of Beath 9/24/7 Musselburgh 16/5 Lochee Utd 3/18/11 Newtongrange 11/4 Camelon 13/57/5 Dalkeith 12/5 Oakley 7/510/11 Dundee NE 11/4 Bathgate 2/1EVS Dundee Violet 14/5 Arniston 7/48/13 Dundonald 16/5 Jeanfield 11/411/10 Broughty 5/2 Edinburgh Utd 7/46/4 Glenrothes 13/5 Tayport 5/47/4 Kinnoull 14/5 Forfar WE EVS9/2 Montrose R 10/3 St Andrews 2/5 North Region 1/4 Culter 9/2 FC Stoneywood 6/11/10 Hermes 6/1 New Elgin 12/17/1 Inverness City 5/1 Banks O'Dee 1/55/4 Maud 13/5 Dyce 6/41/5 Cruden Bay 5/1 Lossiemouth Utd 7/1EVS Buckie Rovers 14/5 Fraserburgh Utd 7/4 Highland League 11/4 Buckie Thistle 16/5 Nairn County 8/131/20 Cove Rangers 17/2 Rothes 14/11/14 Deveronvale 15/2 Fort William 12/11/6 Formartine Utd 11/2 Wick Academy 8/11/20 Fraserburgh 17/2 Strathspey 14/12/1 Huntly 11/4 Clachnacuddin 10/1110/3 Inverurie Loco 10/3 Brora Rangers 1/211/4 Keith 16/5 Forres Mech 8/131/5 Turriff Utd 5/1 Lossiemouth 7/1 Lowland League 7/4 BSC Glasgow 14/5 Preston Athletic EVS11/4 Gala Fairydean 16/5 Edinburgh City 8/131/2 Spartans 10/3 East Kilbride 10/37/4 Stirling Uni 5/2 Dalbeattie Star 11/102/1 Vale of Leithen 11/4 Selkirk 10/112/5 Whitehill Welfare 10/3 Gretna 2008 9/2 William Hill Prelin Round Replays 10/3 Edinburgh Uni 10/3 Hurlford 1/210/3 Hawick RA 10/3 Newton Stewart 1/2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nocko Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 Anything take your fancy Al. A few differences this week. Maud have been well backed so far........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Star Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 You do mis understand. The teams and prices are hypothetical. Ignore them for now. If both teams have a similar chance of winning there is still a more significant chance of a drubbing in non-league. Shows you what I know mate.Would have expected the odds compilers to take that into consideration . Thought that was why there is so many short prices in the Highland League. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nocko Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 Directed to Nocko (Owen) Notice Broughty game has been swapped to Whitton Park. Will play that trump card with Ladcrooks if i have too as I have backed Broughty with them. Treble I will be backing is North End at 10/11 v Bathgate, Broughty 11/10 v Edinburgh, Selkirk 10/11 at Vale of Leithen Nice 15/2 shot which I know you wont shorten I won't shorten anything unless there is money for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superbigal Posted August 22, 2014 Author Share Posted August 22, 2014 Shows you what I know mate.Would have expected the odds compilers to take that into consideration . Thought that was why there is so many short prices in the Highland League. Thats my point Star. They work of a standard chart as opposed to using consideration. Another interesting point. McBookie have noted that non league draws are significantly less likely than in senior football. Couple that with the fact that punters tend not to select draws in their accumulators then they have migrated away from a standard profile. Say a senior game was Home 7/4 Away 7/4 Draw 2/1 then McBookie are more likely to go Home 5/4 Away 5/4 Draw 16/5 It may not stop punters winning but it does reduce their winnings. So in this sense they have taken consideration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 There is an internal debate over the Handicaps at the moment. Gap between the teams is getting so large - although interestingly I notice that you are one of the few that goes against the tide Bound to work eventually.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boomtown Boy Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 No North or South leagues priced up. No betting available on line. No singles accepted. You should concentrate on getting your own house in order and stop making feeble excuses instead of constantly ridiculing the opposition. fwiw Hills have set their stall which suits their business model when only pricing up a few leagues, they feel the risk and reward of pricing up lower league, offset with compilers time spent doing this does not add up. If Whitestar as a business man were going to undertake a job where you could lose quite alot of money or gain very little would you do it? Hills are consistent and thats all you can ask for. McBookie's odds in a more readable format. Nokco - just because a result falls Ladbrokes way doesn't mean the price is right. Look at Brora Rangers v East Fife this week. Original price was Brora 11/4. The wrong price despite the result. If Laddies held their prices they would lose over the whole season And the reason that Laddies keep putting prices out is because punters keep on betting with them. 99% of them don't care that the prices change. Sadly I wish that wasn't the case but offering a good service isn't necessary the number one thought in a punters mind when placing a bet EAST REGION 21/10 Ballingry 18/5 Draw 7/10 Bonnyrigg 4/11 Bo'ness 21/5 Draw 4/1 Penicuik 11/8 Carnoustie 3/1 Draw 6/5 Broxburn 4/7 Fauldhouse 18/5 Draw 27/10 Armadale 1/2 Kelty Hearts 15/4 Draw 3/1 Sauchie 4/9 Linlithgow 18/5 Draw 18/5 Hill of Beath 1/2 Musselburgh 15/4 Draw 3/1 Lochee Utd 8/15 Newtongrange 18/5 Draw 29/10 Camelon 8/13 Dalkeith 15/4 Draw 12/5 Oakley 4/6 North End 15/4 Draw 11/5 Bathgate 11/5 Dundee Violet 15/4 Draw 4/6 Arniston 21/20 Dundonald 16/5 Draw 6/4 Jeanfield 5/4 Edinburgh 16/5 Draw 5/4 Broughty 19/20 Glenrothes 33/10 Draw 13/8 Tayport 13/8 Kinnoull 7/2 Draw 9/10 Forfar WE 16/5 Montrose RL 21/5 Draw 4/9 St Andrews 13/8 Blairgowrie 7/2 Draw 9/10 East Craigie 29/10 Brechin Vics 4/1 Draw 1/2 Star Hearts 4/7 Downfield 15/4 Draw 13/5 Newburgh 8/11 Kirkcaldy 4/1 Draw 15/8 Forfar Alb 3/10 Kirriemuir 5/1 Draw 21/5 Scone 8/13 Lochee Harp 4/1 Draw 9/4 Arbroath Vics 2/9 Luncarty 11/2 Draw 11/2 Lochore 8/13 Dunbar 4/1 Draw 9/4 Livingston Utd 5/1 Falkirk JFC 11/2 Draw 1/4 Haddington 9/4 Pumpherston 4/1 Draw 8/13 Tranent 15/8 Stoneyburn 7/2 Draw 4/5 Lochgelly 9/5 West Calder 7/2 Draw 5/6 Rosyth 5/6 Whitburn 7/2 Draw 9/5 Blackburn Utd NORTH REGION 33/10 FC Stoneywood 9/2 Draw 2/5 Culter 2/9 Hermes 6/1 Draw 5/1 New Elgin 5/1 Inverness City 6/1 Draw 2/9 Banks O'Dee 1/2 Maud 21/5 Draw 11/4 Dyce Jnrs 4/6 Aberdeen Uni 15/4 Draw 11/5 Parkvale 21/20 Colony Park 3/1 Draw 8/5 Bridge of Don 2/5 East End 9/2 Draw 33/10 Newmachar 4/6 Glentanar 15/4 Draw 11/5 Lewis Utd 9/1 Whitehills 7/1 Draw 1/9 Forres Th Disagree with the bold bit Cartwright, punters do care, I have stopped backing with Ladbrokes, cant tell you how many times I have filled in coupon went to teller to be told of price changes and told them to leave it and walked over to Hills. Suppose if punters dont have luxury of Hills 30m away they might just bet anyway but I think consistency does matter to punters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nocko Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 Last season Ladbrokes paid out on games that switched Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boomtown Boy Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 Last season Ladbrokes paid out on games that switched am not talking about price changes coz games are switched am on about price changes coz they shit themselves when seeing competitors prices, happen EVERY (sorry for shouting) week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nocko Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 Sorry I was replying to Al Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Star Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 am not talking about price changes coz games are switched am on about price changes coz they shit themselves when seeing competitors prices, happen EVERY (sorry for shouting) week Think it has already been well documented on here that Ladbrokes should be avoided like unprotected sex with an Ethiopian transvestite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Star Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 fwiw Hills have set their stall which suits their business model when only pricing up a few leagues, they feel the risk and reward of pricing up lower league, offset with compilers time spent doing this does not add up. If Whitestar as a business man were going to undertake a job where you could lose quite alot of money or gain very little would you do it? Hills are consistent and thats all you can ask for. The point I'm making is, having a better odds compiler than Ladbrokes is nothing to shout about. Bit like Austin Powers saying "Ooh good I've got syphilis, the BEST of the sexually transmitted diseases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 For someone who is forever claiming to be too busy to release the prices, it never takes you long to reply to my posts. Just because I'm not a gambler don't mean I can't have a view on the subject. A businessman for nearly twelve years now I know the importance of puting the customer first. I am not having a go at you, merely pointing out your own inadequacy. Stop making excuses and learn to make better use of constructive criticism. Never trust a man who doesn't bet and claims to be a businessman for 12 years but can't spell "putting the customer first". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 There is an internal debate over the Handicaps at the moment. Gap between the teams is getting so large - although interestingly I notice that you are one of the few that goes against the tide Tomorrow's games are a bit unusual in that top teams aren't playing each other, and neither are lower teams. But how do you take any bets on, say, Deveronvale v Fort William if you don't offer a handicap? There's next to zero chance of the result being other than a Vale win, and 1/5 isn't going to tempt anyone, unless they bundle it into a suicidally large accumulator. The bet is on the goal margin surely? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cartwright Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 Yeah and that is why we originally offered them. But when Clach are beating a team 6-0 and the handicap is set at 2 and then the following week Clach get 6 past them from another team it shows that the gap between the teams makes the handicap betting Difficult to get right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 Yeah and that is why we originally offered them. But when Clach are beating a team 6-0 and the handicap is set at 2 and then the following week Clach get 6 past them from another team it shows that the gap between the teams makes the handicap betting Difficult to get right I can see that, and I've found the results impossible to predict too this season, to your profit. But without handicap betting on obvious win/draw/lose results, I won't be betting. I realise you're in the business of minimising risk, but you could kill it by trying to eliminate it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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