mcgregor

Thanks for the reply. I have collected a lot of info which took ages. Can definetly see how much profit these bookmakers make and where exactly the public bet. Maybe I just need to turn the data round. Anyway thanks again and back to the drawing board.

I have used historic data over a few leagues and previous seasons and have managed to consistently find a way of making a profit. However I have used Bet365 prices which I have used from footballdata. My aim is to to start laying every game on betfair. My concern is the differance in prices between bookmaker and exchange. For example if I can show say a 100 point profit over time by laying at b365 prices would i still be making a profit on betfair or would the better prices they offer seriously reduce the profit to make it not worth while?

Hi new member here - have read this thread and some good info on it. Ok my ramble is that we are told we need to find value. So ive started to try and find the fair price on a match and sometimes i get really close to the bookmakers prices and sometimes im quite a bit off - mostly on the draw price. Can anyone point me in the right direction As an example I've picked a random match Arbroath v Alloa tomorrow Home 1 0 5 Away 3 2 2 league table info so hw + al = 3 draws 2 and hl + aw = 8 so 3 2 8 23% 15% 62% goals arbroath at home -9 and alloa away +2 recent form arbroath LLLXW alloa LXWWL hth at arbroath from hth website adv 8 2 8 which gives 44% 11% 44% looking more into it arbroath have had a great record v alloa at home for quite a few seasons. News which ive got from p&p mostly - alloa may have 2 injuries to key defenders arbroath new manager has had a great start with a draw at brechin and a win at peterhead. Alloa beaten 4-1 at home to stenny last week. Is there a proper way to join all this up? I try and move the percentages up or down to compensate for all the different things so from league position info 23% 15% 62% to hth and rf adjustment 30 15 53 to match news 34 15 51 which in odds i reckon is 2.94 6.6 1.9 I reckon there is something wrong with this and probably more ways to adjust it. Best booky price was 2.6 paddy for home win and worst was 2.2 alloa price was 2.63 b365 and worst 2.25 paddy and draw was 3.5 My instinct is arbroath as they look as if they are coming out of a bad run and home stats which are poor should get better. Maybe im wrong but that is the gut instinct i get. I see the best value is to lay the draw as these teams dont often draw according to past games. I wouldnt choose alloa on the injury news. So can anyone improve on how many percent to change things etc or pick holes in this.