[mid-table]

Thought it would be an idea to have a thread where we can note all the things we learn whilst gambling, if it's successful then maybe we could pin it.

I don't mean things like 'Team A is a great bet on Saturday', or 'Always back Trainer A at Racecourse B', I'm talking about fairly generic stuff.

For starters, I would say (based on lessons of the last couple of days);

Always look at the form of both teams when planning a bet, don't rely on just one team.

Shop around to get the best price.

(A personal one) Don't play games of chance, the odds are stacked against you and the outcome is random.

Know your market, and the rules of the bet.

Feel free to add, a lot of these things are common sense, but are easy to forget on occasion.

[H_B]

Ron Burgundy, on Jan 3 2008, 15:49, said:

stop telling everyone what you have won whilst omitting your losses.

Yup.

I'll add to that, don't tell people of winning bets unless you mention what you are taking before the event starts.

[the_russian]

To the younger guys out there, i'd like to offer my 3 step programme to gaurenteed wealth.


1. Always chase your losses, if you bet big enough you can always recover them.

2. Whenever possble, gamble when drunk, you will reap the rewards of your bravery and better judgement.

3. If you are on a good run, the chances are it will go forever, up your stakes and bet more frequently on high odds long shots.


and my bonus point...

15 team accumulators featuring teams that you know absoutely f**k all about are gaurenteed to secure a long term profit!!

[mid-table]

the_russian, on Jan 3 2008, 15:52, said:

15 team accumulators featuring teams that you know absoutely f**k all about are gaurenteed to secure a long term profit!!

Amen to that.

Do you always highlight your ignorance of the English language in italics, to save people having to look for it???

This post has been edited by mid-table: 03 January 2008 - 15:55

[the_russian]

mid-table, on Jan 3 2008, 15:55, said:

Amen to that.

Do you always highlight your ignorance of the English language in italics, to save people having to look for it???

tryin too say sumthin liek?

[Haitch]

Ron Burgundy, on Jan 3 2008, 15:49, said:

There are less than 5 professional gamblers (so the bookies say) who make a living from punting and apparently they would not consider betting on football or hordse racing as you CANNOT beat the bookies in these two sports.

Sorry - I do not agree.

I think I have a better knowledge than the bookies when it comes to football betting. I will look through the full fixture list throughout England and Scotland and will pick my ONE bet for the day. This selection constitutes my main bet of the week. For example last night £100 on Blackburn to beat Sunderland @ 1.65. They won (albeit only just) and I walk away with £65 notes.

My selection boils down to who I think will win - nothing to do with the odds. The usual selection is between 1/3 to 1/1. I win on average 4 out of 5 bets. I am up over £500 this season by following this one tactic alone.

[the_russian]

Haitch, on Jan 3 2008, 16:00, said:

Sorry - I do not agree.

I think I have a better knowledge than the bookies when it comes to football betting. I will look through the full fixture list throughout England and Scotland and will pick my ONE bet for the day. This selection constitutes my main bet of the week. For example last night £100 on Blackburn to beat Sunderland @ 1.65. They won (albeit only just) and I walk away with £65 notes.

My selection boils down to who I think will win - nothing to do with the odds. The usual selection is between 1/3 to 1/1. I win on average 4 out of 5 bets. I am up over £500 this season by following this one tactic alone.

It's a great tactic if you are disciplined enough to follow it. My problem is that I usually see 5-6 games that tempt me, and put on 3/4 teamers. Singles and doubles are the way to make money, but usually I gamble purely for fun (apart from this month) and would prefer to have a small stake with a potentially, albiet unlikely, large prize.

[mid-table]

I think that Betfair has revolutionised the betting industry.
I agree that the bookies will say that only 5 people in the UK are professional gamblers, the reason for that is that the bookies have closed the accounts of all the others, and they all now use Betfair.

There are literally thousands of people who make a living from betting on Betfair, albeit a lot of them are involved in trading rather than betting, but the fact that a live Premiership match regularly attracts turnover in excess of £10,000,000 on the win market alone, and 1st round matches of the world darts were attracting markets worth more than £1,000,000, shows how the serious players have moved to the exchanges.

Crikey, even the Stenny v Shire game yesterday had more than £100,000 matched on it, you can't tell me that's all down to the Akabusi Loyal.

[H_B]

Haitch, on Jan 3 2008, 16:00, said:

I think I have a better knowledge than the bookies when it comes to football betting.

Then you are wrong.

Mid-tons is right though. Betfair has made it possible to make a decent living out of being a trader.

This post has been edited by Hieronymous_Bosch: 03 January 2008 - 16:13

[H_B]

Ron Burgundy, on Jan 3 2008, 16:13, said:

I think you should always be wary of betting on another persons/companies terms as they will invariuably be weighed in their favour funnily enough.

Well, you have to give them their "cut", but you are betting to significantly more attractive margins.

Plus, unlike conventional bets, you are effectively acting as a market trader, and can "sell" the bet once it reduces and take a profit, even before the event starts.

[Haitch]

Ron Burgundy, on Jan 3 2008, 16:11, said:

so your living costs this season have not surpassed 500 pounds?

As I said less than five individuals make a living from professional gamblng, obviously not including poker rooms, and givent he number of individuals who participate I can safely say that although you think you will win with your "genius" system over the long stretch you will be in exactly the same position as every other smart gambler.....down

I get the impression that you have tried and failed Mr Burgundy. I did not say that I was a full time punter. rather was just stating that a profit can be made from Gambling. What makes you think that I will end up down then?

My next bet is on Saturday Norwich to beat Bury. I expect to get somewhere in the region of 1.33. Obviously this is likley to win hence the odds, but that is my whole point. I only back games where I think the odds are in my favour. If this match was played 100 times, (based on current squad + stats etc) I would not expect Bury to get a result 33 times. hence the odds are in my favour.

Reasoning:

Bury have picked up 1 point out of the last 21. Norwich have picked up 14 out of the past 21. 9 game unbeaten run for the canaries. Bury on the other hand have not won in their last 7 league games.

Bury are only in the 3rd round courtesy of a kind draw against non league opposition to date and even then it has taken late goals in both games to win (and home advantage!)

I know this is not the place to be putting up bets but I disagree with Ron Burgundys points.

[H_B]

Ron Burgundy, on Jan 3 2008, 16:22, said:

smoke and mirrors for the new millenium.....I reckon I would have a better chance at the old cash in the attic scenario.....buy something retail and try and turn a profit at a trade auction

I agree it is still only a tiny number of people who profit over a long period of time, compared to the number of gamblers. It's too volatile.

[Haitch]

mid-table, on Jan 3 2008, 15:44, said:

Thought it would be an idea to have a thread where we can note all the things we learn whilst gambling, if it's successful then maybe we could pin it.

I don't mean things like 'Team A is a great bet on Saturday', or 'Always back Trainer A at Racecourse B', I'm talking about fairly generic stuff.

For starters, I would say (based on lessons of the last couple of days);

Always look at the form of both teams when planning a bet, don't rely on just one team.

Shop around to get the best price.

(A personal one) Don't play games of chance, the odds are stacked against you and the outcome is random.

Know your market, and the rules of the bet.

Feel free to add, a lot of these things are common sense, but are easy to forget on occasion.

Sorry mate - it appears that I have helped take this topic slightly off piste.

[mid-table]

Haitch, on Jan 3 2008, 16:26, said:

My next bet is on Saturday Norwich to beat Bury. I expect to get somewhere in the region of 1.33. Obviously this is likley to win hence the odds, but that is my whole point. I only back games where I think the odds are in my favour. If this match was played 100 times, (based on current squad + stats etc) I would not expect Bury to get a result 33 times. hence the odds are in my favour.

OK, this is exactly what I was not wanting from this thread, but I have to point out that at odds of 1.33, the break even point is Bury getting a result 25 times, not 33 times.

This post has been edited by mid-table: 03 January 2008 - 16:30

[H_B]

mid-table, on Jan 3 2008, 16:28, said:

OK, this is exactly what I was not wanting from this thread, but I have to point out that at odds of 1.33, the break even point is Bury getting a result 25 times, not 33 times.

Yes.

If you put on one bet a year, and it's a 1.33 shot, you have a decent chance of saying "I made a profit in 2008 betting", but the more times you take 1.33 shots, you will eventually lose. And you (obviously) need several wins to recoup the lost bank from the one loss.

[Haitch]

Yawn

Each to their own.

Mid-Table - have your thread back.

[H_B]

Back on thread, one thing I would stress is the value in level staking.

Every gambler will know how irritating it is to win 4 in a row betting say £20 on 10/11 shots and then blowing £60 on another 10/11 shot which loses.

So you have won 4 out of 5 and only have a small profit to show for it.

[mid-table]

Haitch, on Jan 3 2008, 16:34, said:

Yawn

Each to their own.

Mid-Table - have your thread back.

Sorry mate, although the maths was a bit iffy, the overall point you make is quite correct, and can be added to the 'rules';

Bet selectively, you don't have to bet on every race / match / event.

[McMuffin]

There is no such thing as buying money with a single bet. So stop fucking saying it.

[uberman]

One thing I have learned from gambling is to never bet on Liverpool as they are consistently shite and will always find a way of fucking your line
Nottingham Forest are also included in this system I have

[dubs]

When you get your hands on a weekend coupon, study it hard, study it slowly, and select three bets that you really like the look of. One should be a 'Nap', this can basically be a team you fancy and are a decent price. Generally mines tend to be evens/not far off it. Your 'next best' is generally the same although mines tend to be a worse price. And finally, select a banker that is roughly (this is how I do it anyway) a 1/2 shot.This pick I like to call your 'Money For Old Rope'

OK this is a poor rule for other people but I feel it is the best way to pick a bet for the weekend. I dislike getting swamped with too many bets and this is probably the most effective way to make money.

(I have not had a coupon up in 2 months)

lol

This post has been edited by dubya: 03 January 2008 - 18:38