Exit Negotiations.

[Mortar Bored]

Thought we might need a thread for the negotiations.

Seems already that the founding 6 states are already disproving the line from Leave that UK ministers would dictate the terms & timetable.

[Bishop Briggs]

Thought we might need a thread for the negotiations.

Seems already that the founding 6 states are already disproving the line from Leave that UK ministers would dictate the terms & timetable.

 

The referendum was not binding. There is no legal obligation to invoke Article 50 after the referendum. There is no legal obligation on the PM to invoke Article 50 within a defined time frame. There is no legal means by which the EU can start the process or dictate the timetable. The EU cannot throw the UK out on its own terms.

[The Master]

Technically the UK does dictate the timetable - only they can invoke Article 50.

However, it's a chess game. The longer you leave the rest of the nations to stew, the harder the negotiations will be.

[DeeTillEhDeh]

The referendum was not binding. There is no legal obligation to invoke Article 50 after the referendum. There is no legal obligation on the PM to invoke Article 50 within a defined time frame. There is no legal means by which the EU can start the process or dictate the timetable. The EU cannot throw the UK out on its own terms.

But once Article 50 is invoked then they have two years.

If no agreement is reached then trade will be covered by WTO rules which will be worse then any deal on the table. The EU hold most of the key cards when it comes to negotiation.

The UK negotiators will certainly want to avoid a double-whammy of more expensive imports due to currency devaluation and higher export prices due to tarriffs.

That being said, common sense will prevail, even if it means the 27 voting to extend negotiations beyond the 2 year time frame.

[SlipperyP]

Next few weeks, it will be along these lines.

 

 

[Mortar Bored]

The referendum was not binding. There is no legal obligation to invoke Article 50 after the referendum. There is no legal obligation on the PM to invoke Article 50 within a defined time frame. There is no legal means by which the EU can start the process or dictate the timetable. The EU cannot throw the UK out on its own terms.

I understand all that, as I'm sure the Foreign Ministers do, my point, although maybe not made particularly well, is that first signs are that Europe will be playing hard ball.

[Bishop Briggs]

I understand all that, as I'm sure the Foreign Ministers do, my point, although maybe not made particularly well, is that first signs are that Europe will be playing hard ball.

 

The negotiations will be tough and Britain has a lot of cards to play, especially the large trade deficit with the EU and the huge number of EU citizens who are living in the UK.

 

The biggest impact on stocks was in Europe. European firms cannot afford to lose British customers. Both sides have to sensible and agree a deal that delivers stability and gradual withdrawal.

[FlyerTon]

UK's EU commissioner to resign.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36629646

[LongTimeLurker]

With this being the key quote:

 

what is done cannot be undone

 

Some people have only just entered the denial portion of the five stages of separation. He clearly isn't one of them and is already at acceptance.

[Colkitto]

Could be a busy few years for Westminster negotiators, leaving the EU and Scotland leaving the UK.

 

rUK alone in 2020 outside the EU and without Scotland.  Can they afford the £200b  Trident cost and then the cost of removal from the Clyde and re-housing somewhere else? What about the assets Scotland is due, that will run into £billions too. They may even be in recession when this is happening and possibly bankrupt    

[Bishop Briggs]

Lord Hill, Britain's Commissioner has resigned. He worked for John Major before becoming a highly paid lobbyist.

 

Any serious ideas on who should replace him to lead the Brexit negotiations? 

[LongTimeLurker]

It will need to be somebody from the leave wing of the Tories. Beyond that don't have a scoobie.

[Mr Bairn]

Lord Hill, Britain's Commissioner has resigned. He worked for John Major before becoming a highly paid lobbyist.

Any serious ideas on who should replace him to lead the Brexit negotiations?

Mr Bean

[Bishop Briggs]

Could be a busy few years for Westminster negotiators, leaving the EU and Scotland leaving the UK.

 

rUK alone in 2020 outside the EU and without Scotland.  Can they afford the £200b  Trident cost and then the cost of removal from the Clyde and re-housing somewhere else? What about the assets Scotland is due, that will run into £billions too. They may even be in recession when this is happening and possibly bankrupt    

 

It's not so simple. What about Scotland's share of the national debt? What currency would iScotland use? Would rUK impose border controls or tariffs if Scotland refused to a Trident deal or agree to take on its share of the debts?

[Alan Stubbs]

I'd suggest David Cameron. Looking for a job soon and has an excellent track record of negotiating with Europe.

[Bishop Briggs]

Mr Bean

 

I said serious so your silly contribution is exactly what I would expected.

[Antlion]

It's not so simple. What about Scotland's share of the national debt? What currency would iScotland use? Would rUK impose border controls or tariffs if Scotland refused to a Trident deal or agree to take on its share of the debts?

Don't worry, you provided excellent answers to all those questions when you were arguing in favour of independence prior to September 2014.

[MuckleMoo]

It's not so simple. What about Scotland's share of the national debt? What currency would iScotland use? Would rUK impose border controls or tariffs if Scotland refused to a Trident deal or agree to take on its share of the debts?

There's no fucking way an independent Scotland would agree to any deal involving Trident.

If we go Independent Trident can get to f**k!

[LongTimeLurker]

I'd suggest David Cameron. Looking for a job soon and has an excellent track record of negotiating with Europe.

 

I know you are probably being sarcastic, but in the short term it actually probably does have to be him until BoJo gets the PM job.

[Ivo den Bieman]

I don't think Boris ever will get the job. The early favourite in Tory leadership contests (Heseltine, Portillo, Davis) never wins. It will be a nonentity no one has yet considered (possibly Steven Crabb who is being talked up as a possible 'anyone but BoJo' candidate).

 

Another good point made on radio this morning was that Britain will need hundreds of negotiators to get the job done in the next few years. Thanks to a long term disengagement with European politics, we have such negotiators in no more than the dozens presently. The UK government really lacks capacity to enter into detailed and advantageous negotiations, which might explain why yesterday's Leave "victory" press conference was so subdued.

 

Scotland has an incredibly strong hand of cards in this situation.