Mr Bairn Posted May 8, 2016 Share Posted May 8, 2016 Last year in the UK general election the SNP took all but three of the 59 seats up for grabs in Scotland. In the FPTP element of this year's Holyrood election some 14 of 73 seats would go elsewhere. A slight sign of weakness in the SNP armour, this result wasn't quite the clean up they enjoyed last year. Let's examine the 14 seats individually and discuss exactly why some seats didn't go yellow and in a few areas the SNP even lost seats they held in 2011 The two Northern Isles seats were always staying orange. The two independents that made it close last time weren't running and the Carmichael thing was an absolute non issue as far as the voters were concerned. Ettrick, Roxburgh and Berwickshire was always kind of pegged as a Tory hold. John Lamont was a bawhair away from taking the WM seat last year under slightly different boundaries and not having to worry about Galashiels was a big help to him. Ayr was a case of potential tactical voting anti-SNP and a popular incumbent holding up the seat with his personal vote. Eastwood was a case of potential anti-SNP tactical voting and the Tory candidate was a well known local list MSP. SNP won the WM seat but that included Barrhead so this again was a case of slightly more Tory favourable boundaries in Scottish elections. These five going "not SNP" were not major shocks. Certainly the first three were expected to go elsewhere. Eastwood and Ayr were seen as neck and neck but the Tories winning them was not a surprise at all. The remaining 9 seats were more surprising. Edinburgh South was of course a Labour seat in WM but the SNP won the HR seat in 2011 on favourable boundaries but there was suggestions of some tactical voting for Labour last year which may have come into play this year as well. Dumfriesshire is a Tory seat at WM. Certainly the HR boundaries are more favourable to the SNP but having Dave Mundell's son running as the Tory candidate was the likely clincher here. Galloway and West Dumfries had a very popular Tory incumbent. He retired, but he had held up the natural Tory lead in the area. They lost the WM seat to the SNP but tactical voting also played a part here. The boundaries for the Scottish elections really hurt the SNP, splitting the main town of Dumfries between the two constituencies of Dumfriesshire and G&WD. Dumfries is where the SNP make their money down there and if it was all in one constituency they'd win it. I wonder if they might gerrymander the boundaries. In the WM election, the town is in the SNP seat Dumfries and Galloway, whereas the Tories hold the bigger seat. Edinburgh West had some rumours of a potential Lib Dem gain. They got fairly close in the UK election and some tactical voting was in play. There's also the Michelle Thomson issue. The last five were the ones that really made my jaw drop. Bizarre Tory gains in West Aberdeenshire and in Edinburgh Central (Green candidate, personal vote for Ruth), the Lib Dems somehow managed to get North East Fife (personal vote for Willie). The Dumbarton and East Lothian Labour holds were also very surprising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shades75 Posted May 8, 2016 Share Posted May 8, 2016 Regression to the mean. Nothing more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted May 8, 2016 Author Share Posted May 8, 2016 I think there was more tactical voting this year for sure. I guess last year, there were some areas it wasn't even clear which Unionist party was the best placed to run the SNP close, so last year's election unmuddied the waters a tad and it became clear where tactical votes should go. I think if there was a UK general election today, the SNP would lose several seats because of this reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jacksgranda Posted May 9, 2016 Share Posted May 9, 2016 Obviously O.A.Ps should be culled in these constituencies. Non Scots should be "encouraged" to leave. Then the SNP would be a shoo in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McRuffian Posted May 9, 2016 Share Posted May 9, 2016 Obviously O.A.Ps should be culled in these constituencies. Non Scots should be "encouraged" to leave. Then the SNP would be a shoo in. Antlion, is that you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fide Posted May 9, 2016 Share Posted May 9, 2016 Antlion, is that you? Donald Findlay, is that you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MEADOWXI Posted May 9, 2016 Share Posted May 9, 2016 West Aberdeenshire - SNP at Holyrood have made a complete c**t of the farming payments, a well organised campaign on that and other local issues was what happened there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmothecat Posted May 9, 2016 Share Posted May 9, 2016 Being from West Aberdeenshire I was surprised that it went SNP last time and that it was Lib Dem prior to that, the place always seemed very Tory to me. Mike Rumbles was a fairly popular MSP for the Lib Dems so I wondered if that's why it wasn't Tory when I lived there. To me though it seems about as naturally Conservative a place as you would find so if anything the Tories have underperformed there up until now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayrmad Posted May 9, 2016 Share Posted May 9, 2016 West Aberdeenshire - SNP at Holyrood have made a complete c**t of the farming payments, a well organised campaign on that and other local issues was what happened there. And they deserve every bit of criticism going, their performance on this issue has been nothing short of Westminsterish, 63 seats will keep them honest and save them from the self-combustion that usually occurs in 3rd and 4th terms of governing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bendan Posted May 9, 2016 Share Posted May 9, 2016 Probably only a marginal effect, but some of those areas have high house prices, so are affected by the 10% LBTT rate on anything above 325,000. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Granny Danger Posted May 9, 2016 Share Posted May 9, 2016 Obviously O.A.Ps should be culled in these constituencies. Non Scots should be "encouraged" to leave. Then the SNP would be a shoo in. I'm quite happy with that policy; if you could provide a strategy and tactics that would be much appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George Parr Posted May 9, 2016 Share Posted May 9, 2016 The Dumbarton result, whilst a surprise to outsiders, won't have caused that much of a stir within the constituency itself. At the turn of the year I was confident the SNP would take the seat but in the few months running up to the election I became less sure. Baillie positioned herself firmly in favour of trident renewal at a time when Faslane remains a major source of employment within the area. Despite a few very vocal grumbles she remains a reasonably popular politician who has many locals duped into thinking she's fighting for their best interests. In the end she's won by a bawhair. At WM elections the constituency includes Clydebank which swings the vote back to the SNP. Also, the last Labour MP was not particularly popular in either town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
topcat(The most tip top) Posted May 9, 2016 Share Posted May 9, 2016 Obviously O.A.Ps should be culled in these constituencies. Non Scots should be "encouraged" to leave. Then the SNP would be a shoo in. You've spent too much time over there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparky88 Posted May 9, 2016 Share Posted May 9, 2016 Being from West Aberdeenshire I was surprised that it went SNP last time and that it was Lib Dem prior to that, the place always seemed very Tory to me. Mike Rumbles was a fairly popular MSP for the Lib Dems so I wondered if that's why it wasn't Tory when I lived there. To me though it seems about as naturally Conservative a place as you would find so if anything the Tories have underperformed there up until now.It wasn't tory because of tactical voting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted May 9, 2016 Author Share Posted May 9, 2016 Why so much Helen's for the OP? Surely the week after an election with some odd results it would be expected to discuss them further? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Granny Danger Posted May 9, 2016 Share Posted May 9, 2016 Why so much Helen's for the OP? Surely the week after an election with some odd results it would be expected to discuss them further? You're a shite troll and no one likes you. HTH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongTimeLurker Posted May 9, 2016 Share Posted May 9, 2016 The last five were the ones that really made my jaw drop. Bizarre Tory gains in West Aberdeenshire and in Edinburgh Central (Green candidate, personal vote for Ruth), the Lib Dems somehow managed to get North East Fife (personal vote for Willie). The Dumbarton and East Lothian Labour holds were also very surprising. Think the only really surprising one was West Aberdeenshire because of the size of the swing away from the SNP there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sergeant Wilson Posted May 9, 2016 Share Posted May 9, 2016 I think there was more tactical voting this year for sure. I guess last year, there were some areas it wasn't even clear which Unionist party was the best placed to run the SNP close, so last year's election unmuddied the waters a tad and it became clear where tactical votes should go. I think if there was a UK general election today, the SNP would lose several seats because of this reason.Maybe some people were scared to vote for fear of a terrorist attack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted May 9, 2016 Author Share Posted May 9, 2016 Think the only really surprising one was West Aberdeenshire because of the size of the swing away from the SNP there. East Lothian, NE Fife and Edinburgh Central were all major upsets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
topcat(The most tip top) Posted May 9, 2016 Share Posted May 9, 2016 East Lothian, NE Fife and Edinburgh Central were all major upsets. The SNP losing their majority of only 610 in Edinburgh Central was an upset certainly but it wasn't a major upset. They actually got more constituency votes here this time than last. They didn't get much wrong The real story is where that Tory vote came from And by the looks of it it's former Lib Dems and former nonvoters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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