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Election Night


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First rumour of the night is that it's looking good for Jackson Carlaw and the Tories in Eastwood. Sounds like a lot of the Jewish population voted for him after recent events in Labour. Ken McIntosh is 4th on the Labour list so it sounds like he's out of a job.

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But we get lost polls? Surely they could ask 2 questions?

An exit poll is much more sophisticated than simply asking the question as people leave.

It folds in data from past exit polls and actual elections, which is then weighted according to likelihood of each party winning the particular seat. This is then extrapolated into a statistical model that can make predictions about individual seats.

So it's not possible to bring in the list vote because it's not based on individual seats.

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An exit poll is much more sophisticated than simply asking the question as people leave.

It folds in data from past exit polls and actual elections, which is then weighted according to likelihood of each party winning the particular seat. This is then extrapolated into a statistical model that can make predictions about individual seats.

So it's not possible to bring in the list vote because it's not based on individual seats.

Agree.

But they could have done constituency one?

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I don't think it's going to be a majority again, we may be heading into another coalition or minority government.

Just a feeling.

Would be a big blow if true.

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I don't think it's going to be a majority again, we may be heading into another coalition or minority government.

Just a feeling.

 

 

It would need to be a horrible night for that to happen. Even if you ignore the list, they need 65 of the 73 constituencies. I can't find 9 seats where the SNP aren't going to win.

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I may be wrong, but was the whole electoral system in Scotland not set up in order to make it difficult to get a majority? Are the SNP the only party in Scotland so far to ever hold a majority in hollyrood?

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