Arjy Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 I found this on the Scottish Football subreddit and and decided to steal it. We're a couple of games before the split in the league and for the first time it looks like it is really going to be close, so here are the scenarios. Three of the following teams will be in the top 6. Hamilton(10th) 33 points, 2 games to play, cannot get higher than 7th. Inverness Caledonian Thistle(9th) 36 points, GD -4, 3 games to play: Motherwell (H 5th), Hearts (H 3rd), Dundee Utd (A 12th). They need a point more than Partick and Dundee from their last three games, plus Ross County or Motherwell to drop points. Beat Motherwell in the next game, they are 2 points behind them with a game in hand and an easier, albeit away from home, last game. A win a loss and a draw would leave them on 40 points - with Ross County and Dundee to play each other, that won't be enough. 6 points may not be enough, so something against Hearts is a must. 9 points will not be enough if Partick and Dundee get 9 points each too. Partick Thistle(8th) 37 points, GD -7, 3 games to play: Kilmanock (H 11th), Dundee Utd (H 12th), Ross County (A 6th). Two easier games should mean that there is an eliminator with Ross County in the last game. The goal difference may come into it if they don't better Dundee's results. Six points against the bottom 2 may mean it comes down to goal difference, but lose to Ross County in the last game and they are probably not going to better their score and will have to hope for Motherwell to drop points and Dundee to lose out somewhere. Dundee (7th) 37 points, GD -3, 3 games to play: Ross County (H 5th), Celtic (H 1st), Hamilton (A 10th). A big first game up against Ross County. Win that and they are level on points and win by more than a goal, then they go above Ross County with a game in hand (albeit against Celtic). 3 points from the last three fixtures will not be enough, with Partick having easier fixtures. 6 points may not be enough either. Ross County (6th) 40 points, GD -5, 2 games to play: Dundee (A 7th), Partick Thistle (H 8th). Win one of those and they are likely to get through. Two draws probably not enough as Partick would only need a win and a draw from their two other games. Lose to Dundee, but beat Partick may mean it comes down to goal difference. Motherwell (5th) 41 points, GD -8, 2 games to play: ICT (A 9th), Celtic (H 1st). Goal Difference doesn't help and a visit from Celtic in the last game won't help, despite holding the points and the position are vulnerable. Lose twice and have to hope one of Dundee and Partick get fewer than 4 points and Ross County lose twice from their 3 games (or that ICT don't get 2 points from their last 2 games). Draw and they have to hope Dundee and Partick fail to get 5 points from 3 games St Johnstone (4th): 43 points, GD +1, 2 games to play: Home to Dundee Utd (12th), Away to Kilmarnock (11th). Will definitely qualify for top 6 with two wins, probably one victory will do. May squeeze through with a draw. Next weekend: Bottom 6: A Ross County win over Partick and Motherwell over ICT will mean ICT will be in the bottom 6. If St Johnstone, Motherwell and Ross County all win, Dundee would need snookers (ditto Partick if they lose). Top 6: A Motherwell win coupled with Dundee and Partick losses will confirm Motherwell in the top 6. If St Johnstone win they will definitely qualify (Partick, Dundee and Ross County cannot all score 46 points due to the games against each other). A draw will do St Johnstone if Ross County and Dundee draw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HibeeJibee Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 It has of course gone down to the wire before... In 2000-01 Dundee jumped above Dunfermline on the last day - in 2002-03 Dunfermline jumped above Kilmarnock - in 2002-03 Dundee held off Hibs - in 2005-06 Motherwell held off Inverness. Then in 2006-07 a first three-way fight saw Aberdeen hold off Motherwell and Inverness on the last day. In 2007-8 the Dons jumped above Falkirk and Inverness on the last day. In 2009-10 Hibs held off Motherwell - in 2010-11 Hearts held off St Johnstone. Then in 2012-13 the first four-way fight saw Dundee Utd jump above Kilmarnock and Aberdeen, and hold off Hibs (who went on to be relegated!!). Last season St Johnstone and Dundee held-off Hamilton and Kilmarnock. So - it has gone down to the last day on 10 from 15 occasions before this season, but only 1 (AFAICS) saw more than 1 Top 6 space up for grabs and never more than 4 teams in the running. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Killiesquirrel Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 HJ, Hibs came 7th in 2012/13 and got relegated in 2013/14. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HibeeJibee Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 True, dunno where that came from... Hibs were however 7th at the split and went on to get relegated, and only 4pts from the Top 6 at this point (March 22nd 2014). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YassinMoutaouakil Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 In 2009-10 Hibs held off Motherwell - in 2010-11 Hearts held off St Johnstone.We finished 5th that season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HibeeJibee Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 Sorry, 2008-09 & 2009-10 respectively. Good to see this stat-attack has gone well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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