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Oil Revenue Forecast


Loondave1

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OBR forecast North Sea oil and gas receipts down 94% from the SNPs £7.5billion to........... £130million.That makes Edinburgh Tram forecast look bang on.Just wondering where Swinney would be getting the cash to make up for this as independent Scotland ploughed ahead reversing austerity and keeping us all happy in "one of the richest countries in the world"....

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OBR forecast North Sea oil and gas receipts down 94% from the SNPs £7.5billion to........... £130million.That makes Edinburgh Tram forecast look bang on.Just wondering where Swinney would be getting the cash to make up for this as independent Scotland ploughed ahead reversing austerity and keeping us all happy in "one of the richest countries in the world"....

The same place other independent countries, like the UK, get money to make up shortfalls in lean years. Of course, it would be the government of an independent country elected by the Scottish electorate making these decisions rather than the historically fiscally-illiterate government chosen by England that the regionalists think needs to make the big decisions. Terrifying thought, right? Thankfully there were enough good Jocks to make sure Osborne the financial wizard would be managing Scotland's finances.

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The same place other independent countries, like the UK, get money to make up shortfalls in lean years. Of course, it would be the government of an independent country elected by the Scottish electorate making these decisions rather than the historically fiscally-illiterate government chosen by England that the regionalists think needs to make the big decisions. Terrifying thought, right? Thankfully there were enough good Jocks to make sure Osborne the financial wizard would be managing Scotland's finances.

Fiscally-illiterate is a great choice of words,sums up the SNP just perfect.

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Fiscally-illiterate is a great choice of words,sums up the SNP just perfect.

Is this where I'm supposed to point out that the SNP have managed to run a budget surplus every year of their administration whilst UK debt has spiralled, thus making the forum's comedy regionalist make the whole cohort look bad?

You're not trying hard enough anymore, kev. The satirical "look how fick I am" stuff is getting pretty tiresome.

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It'll be in good company then.I think a £7billion pound hole in anyone elses economic forecast would be torn to pieces by the Nats but their own bit of willful fantasy economics is somehow not worthy of discussion ?? How very very queer.

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Is this where I'm supposed to point out that the SNP have managed to run a budget surplus every year of their administration whilst UK debt has spiralled, thus making the forum's comedy regionalist make the whole cohort look bad?

You're not trying hard enough anymore, kev. The satirical "look how fick I am" stuff is getting pretty tiresome.

Running budget surplus in the current system is irrelevant to the £7billion hole in an independent budget. I might even suggest it points to Scotlands finances being better under Barnett and the Union....I wouldn't dare though.
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Running budget surplus in the current system is irrelevant to the £7billion hole in an independent budget. I might even suggest it points to Scotlands finances being better under Barnett and the Union....I wouldn't dare though.

This will also be the reason why the UK is going to miss their borrowing forecasts AGAIN. Can you guess how many times since the Tories have been in power that this has happened?

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This will also be the reason why the UK is going to miss their borrowing forecasts AGAIN. Can you guess how many times since the Tories have been in power that this has happened?

And in what way would me guessing about Tory borrowing forecasts help answer how Swinney was going to solve the gap caused by a missing £7billion ?? "Whataboutery" at its finest.I suppose McGarrey could lend him a few quid.....
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And in what way would me guessing about Tory borrowing forecasts help answer how Swinney was going to solve the gap caused by a missing £7billion ?? "Whataboutery" at its finest.I suppose McGarrey could lend him a few quid.....

Well you are doing well here portraying a deficit in the Scottish budget. You do realise that this missing revenue is also missing in the UK budget. The only whataboutery is your hypothetical question on how Scotland would cover it

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Well you are doing well here portraying a deficit in the Scottish budget. You do realise that this missing revenue is also missing in the UK budget. The only whataboutery is your hypothetical question on how Scotland would cover it

I reckon £7 billion divided by 5million is a lot more than divided by 55million.At least it is hypothetical though probably just as well.
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I reckon £7 billion divided by 5million is a lot more than divided by 55million.At least it is hypothetical though probably just as well.

So, if I get you right, you think that the UK budget deficit is only £7 billion?

Let's see, shall we? Here's some back of a fag packet figures.

A quick google search shows that George Osbourne today increased his budget deficit forecast to 3.9% of GDP

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/osborne-increases-budget-deficit-forecast-130656781.html

The most recent figure in Wikipedia for UK GDP is $2.945 trillion (US Dollars)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_the_United_Kingdom

That's around £1.95 trillion in sterling

3.9% of £1.95 trillion is roughly 76 billion. Try dividing that figure by your 55 million. Not a whole lot different from 7 billion divided by 5 million, is it?

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I'd still rather live in an independent Scotland that had buget issues/was skint that be under Westminster rule.

Did anyone truly vote No because they thought the budgeting was a bit shit? What do people imagine would happen? That we slide back in to a feudal society and have to barter using hens and livestock? Or that we'd face rolling blackouts and banks would collapse, taking everyone's savings with them?

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Also money can't that be that tight since the UK government announced a plan to increase 'defence' (chortle; folk still believe this shit) spending by £12 billion as well as renewing Trident.

It's basically an obscenely expensive game of 'my dad's harder than your dad'.

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I'd still rather live in an independent Scotland that had buget issues/was skint that be under Westminster rule.

Did anyone truly vote No because they thought the budgeting was a bit shit? What do people imagine would happen? That we slide back in to a feudal society and have to barter using hens and livestock? Or that we'd face rolling blackouts and banks would collapse, taking everyone's savings with them?

That was the Labour and Tory line. In one debate Annabel Goldie seriously claimed Scotland would be a nation "without a currency", whilst Johann Lamont's coupon was printed on leaflets lying that we did "not know what Scotland's currency would be, but it won't be the pound".

I'm sure there were a lot of reasons for voting "no", but they tend to boil down to:

A. Fear (of change, of the Scottish electorate, of Scotland being unable to blame the UK by taking charge of its own affairs).

B. British nationalism (those who constantly claimed to be "proud and patriotic Scots" seemed to subscribe to this; the claim was often a fig leaf to cover a strong belief that Scotland's place was as a minor territory/region of the British state, governed in the main from London).

C. I'm alright, Jack. This applied to a good many voters, but also to the vested interests of many politicians. Labour thought they had Scotland sewn up as a loyal region - "losing" Scotland is still something they harp on; the Tories could not countenance being a "conservative" party which lost their nation's Northern Territory. Having Scotland a minor part of the U.K. suits (or at least suited) these people down to the ground.

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