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2018 World Cup Qualifying Draw - 25th July


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The fact that Wales are going to be in Pot One is all the proof you need to show that the World Rankings are an absolute nonsense which should have no bearing on tournament seeding whatsoever.

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The fact that Wales are going to be in Pot One is all the proof you need to show that the World Rankings are an absolute nonsense which should have no bearing on tournament seeding whatsoever.

How else would you do it though?
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How else would you do it though?

With a better ranking system.

It's quite hilarious that a team that haven't qualified for a tournament in about 60 years, and haven't even been close to ever qualifying(apart from 2004 maybe) can be first seeds ahead of regular tournament quarter-finalists like Italy and France.

They're going to become the new Greece. Get a ridiculously inflated seeding, then live off piss-easy qualifying draws.

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I'd use the ELO ranking system: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elo_rating_system

Quite simple: if you win games you get points. If you beat a team rated higher than you you get more points. More recent results are worth more than older results and the importance of the competition is taken into account. I realise this is the same idea as the FIFA rankings system but, for some reason, they decided to take the ELO system and fanny about with it even tho' it's worked for decades in other sports. Weirdly FIFA use ELO rankings for the Women's game.

Here would be the tiers using ELO

Tier 1

Germany

Netherlands

Spain

England France

Portugal

Belgium

Italy

Croatia

Tier 2

Ukraine

Sweden

Switzerland

Denmark

Romania

Slovakia

Czech Republic

Austria

Russia

Tier 3

Poland

Scotland

Bosnia

Serbia

Ireland

Turkey

Wales

Iceland

Hungary

Tier 4

Greece

Slovenia

Bulgaria

Norway

Albania

Montenegro

Finland

Belarus

Northern Ireland

Tier 5

Armenia

Estonia

Latvia

Macedonia

Georgia

Lithuania

Azerbaikan

Cyprus

Moldova

Tier 6

Kazakhstan

Faroe Islands

Malta

Luxembourgh

Liechtenstein

Gibraltar

Andorra

San Marino

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Football_Elo_Ratings

http://www.eloratings.net/world.html

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Gibraltar aren't FIFA members (challenging it at CAS).

If UEFA do not 'integrate' Gibraltar and Russia so they get friendlies with the 5-team groups - as they did with France for Euro 2016 qualifiers - potentially a long 2yrs for 'The Rock'.

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See, the Elo rankings are far more sensible than the real one. You can't jump up three pots on the basis of a few wins against teams the same level or worse than you and one fluke against a higher ranked side.

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Romania, Slovakia, Scotland, Faroe Islands/Estonia, Moldova, San Marino would be the dream draw IMO.

TBH we'll need a draw like that to have a realistic chance of qualifying. We've come on pretty well since Strachan took over, but I don't see us having enough to finish ahead of a pair out of Germany/France/Italy/Belgium/Holland/England/Spain

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