Mr Bairn Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Said I was gonna do this as a means of procrastination and to stimulate debate right down to constituency level. We can talk about what seats the SNP really can/can't win. Now I'll reserve the right to vary the schedule depending on personal business but I've split Scotland into ten regions of roughly equal size so hopefully this should take about ten days 1: South (3 seats) 2: Aberdeen and Aberdeenshire (3 seats) 3: East Central Scotland (5 seats) 4: North West (6 seats) 5: North East (6 seats) 6: Central belt and Lothians (7 seats) 7: Edinburgh (5 seats) 8: Strathclyde (9 seats) 9: Ayrshire and Renfrewshire (8 seats) 10: Glasgow (7 seats) Without further adieu, let's get started. 1. Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweedale David Mundell returns to defend the only Tory seat in Scotland. The SNP are a distant fourth here and this area returned a strong No vote in September. Ladbrokes list Mundell as a 2/5 favourite, with the SNP at 3/1, however in reality I don't give the SNP anywhere close to a 25% chance of winning here, the bookies are simply shortening the odds to protect against a total landslide. The SNP should be a good bet to win a much increased share of the vote, leapfrogging the Lib Dems and possibly Labour as well, but my prediction for this seat is a relatively easy Conservative hold 2. Berwickshire, Roxborough and Selkirk The second seat in the list is held by Lib Dem minister Michael Moore. It's a bit of a unique seat in that neither Labour nor the SNP feature in the top two. Moore won 45% of the vote in 2010, with the Tories taking just over a third, and the other two parties barely making double figures. The Conservatives share of the vote should stay firm, so there are three possibilities here. The first possibility is that Moore manages to hold on to 80% of his vote and hold the seat, which I find unlikely despite the famed Lib Dem incumbency bounce. The second possibility is that the Lib Dem vote swings to the SNP, in such a manner that the Tories win the seat with their standard 1/3rd of the vote, more on that later. The final possibility is that the SNP manage to take over 50% of the Lib Dem vote and spectacularly win the seat. Now, this seat would appear to hinge on the Lib Dem vote. If they keep 80% of it, they hold on. If they keep anything less than 50%, it goes yellow. If it's something in between, it goes blue. I'd expect it to fall somewhere in between, handing it to the Tories, but that's ignoring the potential of a Labour > SNP swing. Ultimately I can't see there being enough of a soft Labour vote here to help the SNP so we'll chalk this down as a Conservative gain from Lib Dems but I can see the SNP taking a stunning second place and only losing out by a few hundred votes. 3. Dumfries and Galloway This seat is remarkably similar to seat 2, but with Russell Brown of Labour as the incumbent instead of the Libs. In fact, the criteria here are almost identical to what will happen in Moore's seat. He needs to keep 80% of his vote to stay in place, but needs to lose half his vote for the SNP to win it. Anything in between hands it to the Tories. In the end I don't give this one to the Tories because I expect the Labour vote to hold up better than the Lib Dems, especially in the No voting heartlands down here. Again the SNP could get very, very close here. Labour hold South of Scotland round-up Seats: Conservatives 2 (+1), Labour 1, Lib Dems 0 (-1) What the papers will say: Three incredible pro SNP swings to secure second place finishes, but their starting base is too low to win any of these seats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elixir Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 I'd agree with those three outcomes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MONKMAN Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Can you change region 1 on your list to South of Scotland please. Dumfries and Galloway constituency has absolutely nothing to do with the borders. Anyway, I agree with the outcome of all 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted February 10, 2015 Author Share Posted February 10, 2015 Can you change region 1 on your list to South of Scotland please. Dumfries and Galloway constituency has absolutely nothing to do with the borders. Anyway, I agree with the outcome of all 3. Does the term "Scottish borders" only apply to the Eastern side? Genuine question Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MONKMAN Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Does the term "Scottish borders" only apply to the Eastern side? Genuine question Yes. The Scottish Borders is the council region covering the East side of Southern Scotland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Lambies Doos Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Good stuff Mr Bairn.. I await the rest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gordon EF Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Nice analysis Mr Bairn. When did you turn into a good poster? I'd agree with you on all 3. I'd be shocked if Mundell and Brown didn't keep their seats. Berwickshire, Roxborough and Sekirk is a bit more interesting. I'd say it's a very tight race between the Lib Dems and the Tories. The Tories generally stay pretty consistent in Scotland and I think the Lib Dem's vote will hold up a little better here than in the north and central belt. I doubt it will drop to 50% here and allow the SNP in but I do think 80% is a tough target for Moore. It will be a big target for the Tories so expect some resources thrown in. The Tories to take it. When you look at the two big elections since 2010, these areas all had above average No votes so don't expect as large swings to the SNP as we'll see further north. And the Tories had relatively good results here in 2011, with Labour holding up in Dumfries. All adds up to CON - 2, LAB - 1 in the South. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparky88 Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Whether an area voted yes or no will be no predictor of voting for SNP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted February 10, 2015 Author Share Posted February 10, 2015 Whether an area voted yes or no will be no predictor of voting for SNP What makes you say that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elixir Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Whether an area voted yes or no will be no predictor of voting for SNP Partly true. However, I think we can safely rule them out of winning the three seats mentioned above, plus East Renfrewshire and Orkney and Shetland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparky88 Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 The 2011 holyrood election result vs the 2014 referendum result. Glasgow voted yes but voted labour predominantly . western isles, east Ayrshire constituencies voted SNP but voted no. That's not to say SNP won't gain votes but I don't think it will be particularly linked to the referendum result. People like the SNPs policies much more than they like the idea of independence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elixir Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 The 2011 holyrood election result vs the 2014 referendum result. Glasgow voted yes but voted labour predominantly . western isles, east Ayrshire constituencies voted SNP but voted no. That's not to say SNP won't gain votes but I don't think it will be particularly linked to the referendum result. People like the SNPs policies much more than they like the idea of independence. Uh-huh. Have you seen recent polling data? Particularly in individual constituencies? There was also over three years between the 2011 Holyrood Election and last years referendum. That's a very long time in politics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparky88 Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Uh-huh. Have you seen recent polling data? Particularly in individual constituencies? There was also over three years between the 2011 Holyrood Election and last years referendum. That's a very long time in politics. the Ashcroft polls targeted yes voting areas iirc, I reckon no voting areas will also see a swing to the SNP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elixir Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 the Ashcroft polls targeted yes voting areas iirc Gordon, Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey, and Paisley & Renfrewshire South are all in no-voting areas. The latter two are in council areas where it was very close, granted, and individual places like Inverness and Paisley voted yes, though. I reckon no voting areas will also see a swing to the SNP. Of course they will, but there are still some seats where SNP gains can definitely be ruled out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparky88 Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Gordon, Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey, and Paisley & Renfrewshire South are all in no-voting areas. The latter two are in council areas where it was very close, granted, and individual places like Inverness and Paisley voted yes, though. Of course they will, but there are still some seats where SNP gains can definitely be ruled out. where did you see city breakdowns of the referendum result? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elixir Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 where did you see city breakdowns of the referendum result? I don't know if there is. I've seen it mentioned a few times that these two areas voted yes, though. The Isle of Skye is another one. I imagine it stems from the broken down counts on the night before each council area total was tallied up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
invergowrie arab Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 I don't know if there is. I've seen it mentioned a few times that these two areas voted yes, though. The Isle of Skye is another one. I imagine it stems from the broken down counts on the night before each council area total was tallied up. Each multi member ward in a local authority was counted seperately.Eta I'm talking pish. It was up to each authority how they did it. Many did it by ward, Glasgow did it by Scottish parliament constituency Edinburgh don't seem to have divided it up at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForzaDundee Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 These three shitey seats should be surrendered to England. What a bunch of absolute fannies. Imagine actually voting no. Set of Tory c***s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elixir Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 I found this on Twitter: https://twitter.com/Celebs4indy/media If you go back to September/October you find some of the breakdowns. Paisley's yes vote was 50.4% and the Isle of Skye's was 56%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Honest Saints Fan Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Inverness was definitely 60+ percent in favour of Yes, I'm sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.