Short sighted Nationalists

[SouthLanarkshireWhite]

I'm sure you will manage to....................

The director of Premier Oil says no new North Sea projects are profitable with oil below $60 a barrel and the industry is "close to collapse".

This is after many contractors have been 'asked' to take their second pay cut in a few months.

Discuss the impact on a seperate Scotland's tax revenues and spending plans.

Or doesn't this matter?

[H_B]

I'm sure you will manage to....................

The director of Premier Oil says no new North Sea projects are profitable with oil below $60 a barrel and the industry is "close to collapse".

This is after many contractors have been 'asked' to take their second pay cut in a few months.

Discuss the impact on a seperate Scotland's tax revenues and spending plans.

Or doesn't this matter?

I think the answer to anything along these lines is "eh, the predictions were for 2016 so come back then"

[pandarilla]

So without oil Scotland couldn't make it on its own?

[SouthLanarkshireWhite]

But wasn't the case for independence based on predictions?

Or can we just gloss over that now? And the fact that the price is what it is, and if we were independent right now we would be 'royally f**ked' on the financial front.

Good try............next

[SouthLanarkshireWhite]

So without oil Scotland couldn't make it on its own?

I don't think so, where else were Eck and his mates getting revenue from? Did I miss the silver bullet?

[renton]

I'm sure you will manage to....................

The director of Premier Oil says no new North Sea projects are profitable with oil below $60 a barrel and the industry is "close to collapse".

This is after many contractors have been 'asked' to take their second pay cut in a few months.

Discuss the impact on a seperate Scotland's tax revenues and spending plans.

Or doesn't this matter?

Oil was always described as a bonus to, not a central plank of Scotland's economy. If prudently budgeted it wouldn't wreck the Scottish economy. A nation that had spent 30 years or more building up a sovereign fund may not have felt the impact of this, but as it is we can only hope to survive whatever game OPEC and the US are playing (whether it's OPEC trying to force US fracking out of the game or some concerted effort to undo Russia are some theories you can find on the web).

One thing to note here - these people are not losing their jobs in an independent Scotland, they are losing them in the bosom of the loving Union, which, we were told was less exposed to oil shocks. Turns out that even if that's true, folk still lose their jobs, but while Holyrood is up in arms about it with no real power to intervene, Westminster seem far more sanguine about it, with Osborne simply shrugging his shoulders that it is good for consumers.

Still, falling oil prices could still indicate a slow down in economic activity leading to more exposure for those countires dependent on financial services.... good job the UK isn't one of those.

[pandarilla]

I don't think so, where else were Eck and his mates getting revenue from? Did I miss the silver bullet?

That's a pretty pessimistic view of your own country.

For me the detailed proposals of the White Paper were never a massive deal. The post Yes negotiations would've had a much bigger impact on our financial situation.

Either way I think Scotland has more than enough weal to run its own affairs.

[H_B]

One thing to note here - these people are not losing their jobs in an independent Scotland, they are losing them in the bosom of the loving Union, which, we were told was less exposed to oil shocks. Turns out that even if that's true, folk still lose their jobs

The UK is of course less exposed to oil shocks, as oil forms a negligible part of the UK income. That has nothing at all to do with private companies shedding employees.

[renton]

The UK is of course less exposed to oil shocks, as oil forms a negligible part of the UK income. That has nothing at all to do with private companies shedding employees.

Yeah, and the knock on effect is they are far more sanguine about job losses. They might go into full panic mode over a crash in the City of london but the north east of Scotland can go hang.

[QPSAFalkirkFirm]

But wasn't the case for independence based on predictions?

Or can we just gloss over that now? And the fact that the price is what it is, and if we were independent right now we would be 'royally f**ked' on the financial front.

Good try............next

I'll take a turn. The case for Independence was factored on many economic indicators. Oil was just one. We wouldn't be independent right now as there was a constitutional process to follow. And all your argument does is highlight the need for other energy sources, such as wind, which could have supplied 25% of Europe's needs and made Scotland much wealthier.

Your go.

[SouthLanarkshireWhite]

OK - what % of the SNP's revenue flow in say the first 5 years of independence was from Oil related taxes and employment?

And where was the residual % going to come from?

[H_B]

Yeah, and the knock on effect is they are far more sanguine about job losses. They might go into full panic mode over a crash in the City of london but the north east of Scotland can go hang.

Right.

In what way is this being borne out?

Are you saying the UK government isn't committed to the oil industry? Really???

And all your argument does is highlight the need for other energy sources, such as wind, which could have supplied 25% of Europe's needs and made Scotland much wealthier.

[LongTimeLurker]

Would agree that it shows that the SNP were painting an unduly rosy picture of what would happen in the immediate aftermath of a Yes victory. The low oil prices are temporary, though. The supergiant fields like Ghawar and Burgan are not going to last forever and most of the excess production that made lower prices possible in the short term require a high price to be profitable. There is a conspiracy theory that the low prices have been engineered by the Americand and Saudis and are aimed at ousting Putin in Russia due to his antics in Syria and Ukraine.

[pandarilla]

But wasn't the case for independence based on predictions?

Or can we just gloss over that now? And the fact that the price is what it is, and if we were independent right now we would be 'royally f**ked' on the financial front.

Good try............next

The prediction that governments make are dreadful. Have you ever listened to a Budget speech?

They're continually revising predictions - its a nonsense.

[H_B]

Would agree that it shows that the SNP were painting an unduly rosy picture of what would happen in the immediate aftermath of a Yes victory. The low oil prices are temporary, though. The supergiant fields like Ghawar and Burgan are not going to last forever and most of the excess production that made lower prices possible in the short term require a high price to be profitable. There is a conspiracy theory that the low prices have been engineered by the Americand and Saudis and are aimed at ousting Putin in Russia due to his antics in Syria and Ukraine.

I think this is fair comment.

It exposes how reliant the SNP were on a high oil price to make their economic plans look robust. they knew fine well their predicted price was absolutely ludicours, but they were happy to create this lie for the public in a desperate attempt to shore up their referendum vote.

[renton]

OK - what % of the SNP's revenue flow in say the first 5 years of independence was from Oil related taxes and employment?

And where was the residual % going to come from?

Excluding a geographic share of oil, Scotland's economy is 99% of the UK average. It has a diverse economy ranging across manufacturing, financial services, life scineces, renewables and yes, fossil fuel extraction.

[renton]

Would agree that it shows that the SNP were painting an unduly rosy picture of what would happen in the immediate aftermath of a Yes victory. The low oil prices are temporary, though. The supergiant fields like Ghawar and Burgan are not going to last forever and most of the excess production that made lower prices possible in the short term require a high price to be profitable. There is a conspiracy theory that the low prices have been engineered by the Americand and Saudis and are aimed at ousting Putin in Russia due to his antics in Syria and Ukraine.

They were painting a picture based on OPEC's own estimates.

[vikingTON]

Would agree that it shows that the SNP were painting an unduly rosy picture of what would happen in the immediate aftermath of a Yes victory. The low oil prices are temporary, though. The supergiant fields like Ghawar and Burgan are not going to last forever and most of the excess production that made lower prices possible in the short term require a high price to be profitable. There is a conspiracy theory that the low prices have been engineered by the Americand and Saudis and are aimed at ousting Putin in Russia due to his antics in Syria and Ukraine.

Erm, the prices are being kept low by OPEC's (ie the Saudi's) high level of production, with the obvious intent of driving US shale out of the market. The US isn't a member of OPEC and doesn't even control its domestic production.

Low oil prices are an even larger problem for shale production than traditional exploitation, which means that once the shale is priced out of the game OPEC (and by extension, North Sea oil) will be the only, expensive game in town again. If of course the rest of the cartel states can actually tolerate this level of price, otherwise production will be slashed to bump up the price.

So yep: definitely the sort of disastrous resource management issue that a nation of five million people dare not be involved with. I bet the Norwegians are shitting themselves.

[HaikuHibee]

Erm, the prices are being kept low by OPEC's (ie the Saudi's high level of production, with the obvious intent of driving US shale out of the market.

Won't stop old HB. "SCIENCE SAYs WE MUST FRACK noW!!!!" #LEFTLOONSARELOONSLOL

[Elixir]

I think the answer to anything along these lines is "eh, the predictions were for 2016 so come back then"

Pretty much, and by all means mention it then if things don't improve.