jayjay277 Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Been noticing that a couple of pollsters have tipped SNP to win roughly 50 seats for the general election next year (correct me if wrong!!!) Do people think they will get this many or will the number subside in the run up, and result in nowhere near this prediction?? - I live in Glasgow East where there is a comfortable majority for Margaret Curran but it should be interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elixir Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Ladbrokes have the SNP winning over 20 seats as odds on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reynard Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Been noticing that a couple of pollsters have tipped SNP to win roughly 50 seats for the general election next year (correct me if wrong!!!) Do people think they will get this many or will the number subside in the run up, and result in nowhere near this prediction?? - I live in Glasgow East where there is a comfortable majority for Margaret Curran but it should be interesting Zero chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 I'll buy a hat and eat it if the SNP get more than 40 seats. Doubling their number of MPs would be seen as relatively successful IMO. I'm predicting 26/27 MPs at most but this is based on nothing more than guesswork. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gordon EF Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 The number of seats in Scotland decreased in 2005. To put '50 seats' in perspective, no party has achieved that level of % of seats in Scotland, post-war, probably ever. In 1997, Labour only got, notionally 46 seats under the new boundaries. The SNP won't win 50 seats or anywhere near it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reynard Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 The number of seats in Scotland decreased in 2005. To put '50 seats' in perspective, no party has achieved that level of % of seats in Scotland, post-war, probably ever. In 1997, Labour only got, notionally 46 seats under the new boundaries. The SNP won't win 50 seats or anywhere near it. According to yougov there is normally an average 6% swing to the tories in the run up to a GE when there is a sitting Tory PM. I wonder , if this happens this time, if that will affect voting intentions? The threat of a Tory government certainly seemed to cause a large increase in the Labour vote in 2010. Personally, I hope it doesn't of course. But it will be interesting to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reynard Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 They also say there is, on average, a 2.7% swing to the government in the lead up to a GE, so even worst case there will likely be some sort of swing to Camerons mob. But this is a coalition so who knows how it will play out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
effeffsee_the2nd Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 50 seats sounds absolutely fantastic but its also complete fantasy, 20 odd would be good, i recon more than 25 and theyd be the 3rd biggest party. that would be ace Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gordon EF Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 According to yougov there is normally an average 6% swing to the tories in the run up to a GE when there is a sitting Tory PM. I wonder , if this happens this time, if that will affect voting intentions? The threat of a Tory government certainly seemed to cause a large increase in the Labour vote in 2010. Personally, I hope it doesn't of course. But it will be interesting to see. I'm very certainly you'll see a significant shift towards Labour in Scotland, from their current, laughable, polling figures. And a lot of that will be that, when it comes down to it, plenty of folk will want this Labour over the Tories, even if they find them pathetic. The real question is how strong that effect will be. Labour could always count on it being very strong in the past, if it's not that big this time, they're in trouble. No doubt loads of them think, Labour will just sweep back up to 'normal' figures in Scotland as they seem incapable of learning a lesson or analytical thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 I thought double figures would be more than acceptable. The recent polling has been pleasing, 20+ SNP MPs steaming into Westminster next year would be scenic. I'd still be happy with anything above 12 tbh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gordon EF Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 20 wouldn't just be good. It would be incredible really. There aren't many seats in Scotland where the SNP are a very close second. Winning 14 seats would require some pretty stunning steals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dipped Flake Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Zero chance. first post of yours I have ever agreed with. No way will the SNP get 50+seats. If we get 20+ it will be a great result but the MSM will portray it as a defeat as we were expecting 50+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SodjesSixteenIncher Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 20 would be fantastic. There's a danger here of some pretty sensationalist headlines providing "lololol thought the nats were gonny get 50 seats" type nonsense, even after the SNP have a remarkably succesful election. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kyle Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 first post of yours I have ever agreed with. No way will the SNP get 50+seats. If we get 20+ it will be a great result but the MSM will portray it as a defeat as we were expecting 50+ The SNP managing to treble their presence at Westminster couldn't be spun as a failure. That would be an astonishing success story, especially after yes lost the referendum. 12-15 is where I'd expect to see SNP after the election in May, and that would still be an excellent result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reynard Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 first post of yours I have ever agreed with. No way will the SNP get 50+seats. If we get 20+ it will be a great result but the MSM will portray it as a defeat as we were expecting 50+ You'll get nowhere near that either though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reynard Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 The SNP might turn a few Labour seats into marginals all the same, which will also be a good result. I'd like to see Labour totally routed up here, but they won't be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vikingTON Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Well given the Euro is defunct and Mitt Romney is in the White House, I think we can all back our resident wood-chopping loser's powers of prediction. Mystic Meg is shiting herself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reynard Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Well given the Euro is defunct and Mitt Romney is in the White House, I think we can all back our resident wood-chopping loser's powers of prediction. Mystic Meg is shiting herself. I did get the referendum spot on. That was "the biggie". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AUFC90 Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Well given the Euro is defunct and Mitt Romney is in the White House, I think we can all back our resident wood-chopping loser's powers of prediction. Mystic Meg is shiting herself. He also said during the referendum that the Tories had no chance next year. He seems to very good at being hilariously wrong with predictions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reynard Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 He also said during the referendum that the Tories had no chance next year. He seems to very good at being hilariously wrong with predictions. I did say No would win the referendum comfortably. Which they did. I'd love to be wrong about the Tories winning the GE BTW. That won't be a sore one at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.