John Lambies Doos Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 Current number is 6. Record I think is 12 in late 70s (although that was out of 72, as opposed to 59 possibilities). I have heard figures like 40 being banded about... Personally I think it will be around 18-20, which imo will be a decent haul, with influence if hung parliament. Thoughts/Projections? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dog: A Bounty Hunter Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 10-15. That's the absolute ceiling, I'm afraid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lex Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 10-15. That's the absolute ceiling, I'm afraid. Correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Loki Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 It would really depend on if the "Yes" voters are going to collectively vote SNP like has been banded about. The general election will not have the same voter engagement, so there would be an opportunity to make gains when the % turn out drops. Someone like Gordon Brown must be shiting himself that there could be a backlash against him personally. There is quite a few marginal seats, but I think 10-20 would be about right as others have said. There could be more but it would take a very large percentage of the 45% to stay engaged. I dare say that that interest will dwindle over time, so come May the potential number of seats will be less. For the general election I will no doubt vote for Charles Kennedy. He has served our area well, and if an issue needs raised in parliament he is someone that people listen to. I can't stand the Liberal Democrats though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George Parr Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 Problem is quite a few of the Labour majorities are ridiculously big. In West Dunbartonshire the gap is near 17,500 - about 40%. It's fucking bonkers. I have no doubt that gap will close substantially next year in light of the incumbent MP's recent actions and the fact the constituency slid Yes in the Indy Ref. But chance of an SNP gain? Almost definitely not I'd say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confidemus Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 I'm going to say the UK's 3rd largest party will get 19 seats in May. Doubling the current number or above will be seen as an excellent result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colkitto Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 We're in total uncharted territory now since the referendum. People who were disenfranchised have finally become involved in politics and voted for the first time in decades and in some cases for the first time. Labour actively campaigning with the Tories and the collapse of the Libdems. Labour have in my opinion lost their biggest scarestory in vote for them to keep the nasty Tories out All 3 Westminster leaders are unpopular and not trusted in Scotland and there is genuine anger with their policies. An unprecedented rise in SNP membership and they will be electing a new female leader and First Minister. I don't think you can put a figure on how many SNP MP's will be elected. Although I'll take a stab at 20, but who knows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baxter Parp Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 It would really depend on if the "Yes" voters are going to collectively vote SNP like has been banded about. The general election will not have the same voter engagement, so there would be an opportunity to make gains when the % turn out drops. Someone like Gordon Brown must be shiting himself that there could be a backlash against him personally. There is quite a few marginal seats, but I think 10-20 would be about right as others have said. There could be more but it would take a very large percentage of the 45% to stay engaged. I dare say that that interest will dwindle over time, so come May the potential number of seats will be less. For the general election I will no doubt vote for Charles Kennedy. He has served our area well, and if an issue needs raised in parliament he is someone that people listen to. I can't stand the Liberal Democrats though. Who's to say his opponents might do just as well (if not better)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reynard Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 A dozen at best. The SNP still don't matter at a general election. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colkitto Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 A dozen at best. The SNP still don't matter at a general election. Could say that about UKIP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICTChris Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reynard Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 Could say that about UKIP Yes. But this thread is clearly not about Ukip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lex Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 The fact is that any vote for the SNP in a marginal SNP/Labour seat in May is effectively a vote for the Tories. The biggest cheerleader for the SNP next May will be Cameron and the Southern Conservatives. If Labour don't get their usual 40 odd Scottish seats then they have next to no chance of winning the election. The vast majority of those few Scottish Labour voters who voted YES will realise this. Their hatred for the Tories will far outweigh any desire to have a few more meaningless SNP MP's. As such, they will continue to vote Labour. As such, Labour will comfortably win the general election in Scotland next year, as they always do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 Ladbrokes odds: Might have a punt on 16-20 at 10/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colkitto Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 Yes. But this thread is clearly not about Ukip. Sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LinkinFighter Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 Anything over 10 would be decent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 10 IMO. I think they'll take Argyll & Bute and Gordon from the Lib Dems and Falkirk and Ochill & South Perthshire from Labour They could slash a lot of Labour majorities down to a couple of thousand though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottsdad Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 12 and they can make a bold claim to have doubled their seats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayrmad Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 15-20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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