Mr Bairn Posted August 28, 2014 Share Posted August 28, 2014 Looking at the last set of qualifiers: Second place points totals from 6 team groups: 17 16 20 19 17 21 25 21 And from the Euro 2012 qualifiers: 17 21 16 20 24 22 That's an average of 19.7 points with a standard deviation of 2.8. So if we can get 22 points from the 10 games that gives us a > 70% chance of qualifying. Now if we assume that anything we get from Germany away is a bonus and that we beat Gibraltar home and away and Georgia home that leaves us needing 13 points from 6 games: Tier 1 - Germany (H), Poland (A), Ireland (A) Tier 2 - Poland (H), Ireland (H), Georgia (A) Can we win 4 of those games? I'd suggest we need to do the double over two of Poland/Georgia/Ireland and get 4 points off the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrestersKTID Posted August 28, 2014 Share Posted August 28, 2014 On our day we've shown we can compete with anyone but certainly we can beat georgia away, poland home and away and one of the ireland fixtures. We need to be ruthless against the so called lesser teams (georgia and gibraltar) to avoid any cock ups but this is scotland so you never know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gordopolis Posted August 28, 2014 Share Posted August 28, 2014 Looking at the last set of qualifiers: Second place points totals from 6 team groups: 17 16 20 19 17 21 25 21 And from the Euro 2012 qualifiers: 17 21 16 20 24 22 That's an average of 19.7 points with a standard deviation of 2.8. So if we can get 22 points from the 10 games that gives us a > 70% chance of qualifying. Now if we assume that anything we get from Germany away is a bonus and that we beat Gibraltar home and away and Georgia home that leaves us needing 13 points from 6 games: Tier 1 - Germany (H), Poland (A), Ireland (A) Tier 2 - Poland (H), Ireland (H), Georgia (A) Can we win 4 of those games? I'd suggest we need to do the double over two of Poland/Georgia/Ireland and get 4 points off the other. Head = 7 pts out of 9 Tier 1 - Germany (H) Lose, Poland (A) Draw, Ireland (A) Draw Tier 2 - Poland (H) Draw, Ireland (H) Win, Georgia (A) Draw Heart = 13 pts out of 9 Tier 1 - Germany (H) Lose, Poland (A) Draw, Ireland (A) Win Tier 2 - Poland (H) Win, Ireland (H) Win, Georgia (A) Win Usually the end result is even less than my 'head' predictions, but fingers crossed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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