World Cup 2018 Qualifying

[SpoonTon]

It might seem like I'm getting a bit ahead of myself here, but if we are to stand any chance (and the chances are extremely slim) of qualifying for the next World Cup then we need to consider ourselves as already being well into our qualifying campaign. Assuming the format remains the same, then it's only a year until the draw is made and the July 2015 FIFA Rankings will be vital to our chances.

As things stand we are in the second seeding pot, but given the way the rankings work things could change drastically by next year. I think if we are to stand any chance we must be second seeds and hope for a favourable draw from there.

As it stands:

Pot 1: Germany, Belgium, Netherlands, Switzerland, Spain, France, Portugal, Greece, Italy
Pot 2: Croatia, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Ukraine, England, Denmark, Scotland, Romania, Serbia, Sweden
Pot 3: Turkey, Czech Republic, Wales, Hungary, Austria, Armenia, Slovenia, Iceland, Slovakia
Pot 4: Finland, Poland, Montenegro, Norway, Albania, FYR Macedonia, Republic of Ireland, Bulgaria, Azerbaijan
Pot 5: Israel, Estonia, Latvia, Northern Ireland, Belarus, Moldova, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Georgia
Pot 6: Kazakhstan, Cyprus, Malta, Liechtenstein, Faroe Islands, Andorra, San Marino

(http://www.football-rankings.info/2014/07/2018-fifa-world-cup-qualifying-draw.html)

Matches to be played:

Germany (A)

Georgia (H)

Poland (A)

Ireland (H)

Gibraltar (H)

Ireland (A)

I think a match also looks likely against England in November, with another couple of friendlies possible in that time frame.

[1320Lichtie]

How good would it be being in Pot 2!!!

[craigkillie]

The match against Gibraltar won't count for World Ranking points because they aren't FIFA members.

[welshbairn]

How good would it be being in Pot 2!!!

We'd probably get Germany, Turkey, Poland, Belarus and Kazakhstan..

[SpoonTon]

The match against Gibraltar won't count for World Ranking points because they aren't FIFA members.

Good point. I know they want fifa membership for the next world cup, I don't know if there's any chance of that though (or when that would start to influence rankings).

[lionel hutz]

Good point. I know they want fifa membership for the next world cup, I don't know if there's any chance of that though (or when that would start to influence rankings).

It wont affect ranking as there FIFA and UEFA Ranking would be 0.00000

[craigkillie]

It would affect the ranking of the teams who played them, which was the point he was making.

[lionel hutz]

I'll Take Greece, Iceland, Finland, Luxembourg and San Marino

[PrestersKTID]

I'll Take Greece, Iceland, Finland, Luxembourg and San Marino

What a group i'd be wanting to finish top of that.

[yorkshirepud]

I'll Take Greece, Iceland, Finland, Luxembourg and San Marino

Sorry, that group has been reserved for England. And they'll probably still make an arse of it.

[Virtual Insanity]

Presumably our points that will cease to count in the next 12 months will be less than most of the sides around us? Although I believe these are now only in at 25% of their original value anyway so won't have too much of an impact?

Anyone able to offer a rough estimate of what results we need in that timeframe in order to hold our position (obviously dependent on teams around us) and is there tactical friendlies we should be playing if possible? I remember reading an article on this but have long since lost the information.

[craigkillie]

The rankings tables are here, complete with a few calculations on the side.

Note that in this post when I talk about a year, I'm using the notation used by FIFA on their site. So if I say 2011, that actually means results between July 2010 and June 2011. Our 2014 results are everything from July 2013 right through to the 2-2 draw with Nigeria.

You're right to say that we don't have many points to lose compared to those around us. Here's how our 2011 value compares to the European nations round about us:

16. Ukraine - 43.01

17. France - 89.74

18. Croatia - 114.06

19. Russia - 90.82

21. Bosnia & Herz - 63.00

23. Denmark - 93.78

25. Slovenia - 94.57

27. Scotland - 35.27

29. Romania - 62.45

30. Serbia - 90.03

32. Sweden - 96.86

34. Czech Republic - 60.66

35. Turkey - 84.06

38. Armenia - 63.94

Ours is by far the lowest, which means we will have fewer points dropping off than any of the nearby European nations. However, as you say, those values only represent a small part of every country's total, because more recent years count for more.

Our current total is 785.78 points, which is calculated as follows (from the FIFA site):

You can see that we had a pretty poor 2013 too, which will have reduced in weight by this time next year as well.

Predicting future results is obviously a bit difficult, so let's call our 2015 value Y. That would leave us with:

2012 - 380 x 20% = 76

2013 - 184.73 x 30% = 55.42

2014 - 554.15 x 50% = 277.08

2015 - Y x 100% = Y

Total = 408.5 + Y

We then need to see what sort of value we need Y to be in order to secure a good ranking. I haven't got time to go through every country and compare their results, so I need an alternative way to look at things. The easiest way to do this is to compare it to a set of rankings and work out how many points were needed to finish in certain positions.

I could just use the current rankings, but that wouldn't take into account the fact that World Cup matches offer more points than any other games, and they have a higher weight 1 year after the tournament than they do 4 years after it. I'm therefore going to compare to the July 2011 rankings, which are at the same point in the "cycle" as the July 2015 ones will be. These were the ones used for seeding for the 2014 World Cup.

The lowest ranked side to make Pot 1 were Greece, who were ranked 13th in the world with a tally of 959. For us to have an equivalent ranking, we would need to pick up 551 ranking points in 2015. That is not entirely impossible - after all we've picked up 554 points in 2014.

The lowest ranked side to make Pot 2 were Slovakia, who were ranked 29th in the world with a tally of 779. For us to have an equivalent raning, we would need to pick up 371 ranking points in 2015. That should certainly be achievable - it would mean matching our results from 2012.

The lowest ranked side to make Pot 3 were Hungary, who were ranked 47th in the world with a tally of 603. In order to exceed that, we would only need to pick up 195 points, which just means avoiding a disastrous year like we had in 2011 and again in 2013.

None of those values guarantee anything, because the ranking points will vary from 2011 to 2015, but it does act as a good guide. It's possible that since most of the mid-ranking UEFA nations (apart from Greece) had a pretty poor World Cup, the totals could be lower this time around. These values are also based on the qualification system being the same as 2014, with 9 qualifying groups, but that hasn't been confirmed yet.

In terms of hand-picking friendlies to boost our ranking, the basic premise is to win against sides who have a high ranking. Obviously that's not easy, but the best way to do it is to try to find a side who are ranked higher than they really deserve to be. For example, Switzerland are 6th and Uruguay are 7th in the current rankings. Both are good sides who are better than us, but they are overrated by the rankings. Those rankings will have changed by the time we're playing friendlies, but we should be looking at the post-WC rankings and trying to find the overrated sides. We also have to avoid playing friendlies against lowly-ranked sides, because we could end up losing points even if we beat them.

[Enigma]

Imagine if we made pot one. We'd absolutely be certain to f**k it up if we did.

[craigkillie]

We were in Pot 1 for Euro 2000 qualifying, but finished a distant second to Czech Republic and then lost to England in the play-off.

[Bully Wee Villa]

Okay, so ignoring the non-counting Gibraltar match and assuming we lose to Germany and beat Georgia... what sort of return would Scotland need from the Poland, Ireland (twice) and England (possible friendly) to finish in the respective pots?

Is pot one realistic or would that only be possible if a miraculous result is achieved in Dortmund?

If Scotland were to lose all of those what's the worst possible seeding group they could end up in, fourth/fifth?

[forameus]

It's hard to predict I think. We could have an absolute shitemare, but then so could a lot of teams around us. Or we could do pretty well by our standards, but others do better.

Pot 2 is probably achievable, but aim for 3. After all, similar to the above, we could get a good pot 3 draw and a terrible pot 2 draw, it's just the luck.

Also, once the first ranking gets announced after the World Cup, won't we plummet? A lot of the sides involved will rise, and given we've only played one friendly against Nigeria, we're unlikely to.

[craigkillie]

Costa Rica and Nigeria are the only teams behind us who had a decent World Cup, so I can't see many sides overtaking us.

Only a total disaster of a year would see us slip below Pot 3. I think maintaining our current ranking to stay in Pot 2 should be the target.

[SpoonTon]

It's hard to predict I think. We could have an absolute shitemare, but then so could a lot of teams around us. Or we could do pretty well by our standards, but others do better.

Pot 2 is probably achievable, but aim for 3. After all, similar to the above, we could get a good pot 3 draw and a terrible pot 2 draw, it's just the luck.

Also, once the first ranking gets announced after the World Cup, won't we plummet? A lot of the sides involved will rise, and given we've only played one friendly against Nigeria, we're unlikely to.

The seedings are based on a projection of the post world cup rankings. See the link in my original post.

[st jude]

As long as we're no further down than pot 3 it's more the luck of the draw. You could end up with a group of this whilst being in pot 2:

Germany

Scotland

Turkey

Poland

Israel

Kazakhstan

Which a wouldn't fancy our chances with.

[Bully Wee Villa]

True but you obviously improve your chances of getting a decent draw the higher seeded you are. Even taking your worst case scenario group as an example, you'd fancy that a lot more than you would if you replaced third seed Turkey with second seed France.

Worth pointing out that we're effectively one place higher than in Craig's ranking list above as Russia won't be taking part in qualifying.