[mid-table]

I have set myself up for a no risk epic fail.
Was just in the bookies, and unexpectedly turned £20 into £220.
Figuring that this was a nice surprise, I lumped the £200 profit on Hearts -2 at 8/11.
If it loses I genuinely won't be bothered, I haven't lost anything. If it wins then bonus.

[Jambo Stu]

mid-table, on 06 January 2012 - 14:30, said:

I have set myself up for a no risk epic fail.
Was just in the bookies, and unexpectedly turned £20 into £220.
Figuring that this was a nice surprise, I lumped the £200 profit on Hearts -2 at 8/11.
If it loses I genuinely won't be bothered, I haven't lost anything. If it wins then bonus.

Best of luck! I'd expect it to be stuffy, but our players and fitter, technically better and in good form. We rarely absolutely spank anyone though. I'd suggest we should win by 3 or 4 but not many more.

[knee jerk reaction]

vikingTON, on 06 January 2012 - 13:52, said:

I think the bookies distinctly underrate the difference in standard in the Scottish cups. For example, Morton have played three lower league opponents, all away from home this season, and have won 3-0, 5-0 and 8-0 respectively. I got 8/11 on Morton just to win the 8-0 game, and with HT and handicap betting I made a substantial profit.

We're not exactly SPL quality and I'd expect teams of a higher standard to be doing similar in the games I've selected: Forfar v Aberdeen, Falkirk v East Fife, St Johnstone v Brechin and Ross County v Stenhousemuir. The only way of telling will be in the scores tomorrow though.

had quick look at league cup results (not a huge analysis of stats) but for every 6-0 livy or 3-0 there are 1 goal wins or defeats, including spl and ist division against lower leagues. i just think handicap bets makes betting harder, although again if you think there's value in the bet, go for it just aren't for me though!!

[fueradejuego]

I have 3x£10 free bets with Ladbrokes.

I don't really follow lower league stuff in Scotland at all, but any games, handicaps etc I should be seriously considering tomorrow?

Surely Hearts should spank Auchinleck?

EDIT: Should have added that I only have a couple of days left to use the bets hence the hurry and nothing really appeals in Europe this weekend.

This post has been edited by fueradejuego: 06 January 2012 - 17:22

[blue4578]

H_B, on 06 January 2012 - 11:04, said:

Yep, I'm with you and mid-table here.

I've always viewed Handicap betting on footie, like Half Time/Full Time as a mug's bet in general. Obviously they won't all lose, but I don't think they offer value.

Sorry but that's absolute nonsense.

Like anything else to do with betting, it's all about the probability of something happening and how it relates to the odds. You can't generalise and say that all of one type of bet is for mugs because you don't know the circumstances and the odds of each individual bet. Even some scorecasts (not many) possibly offer value depending on your point of view.

This season I have been backing teams -1.5 on the Asian Handicap, mostly in the Premier League and quite often Manchester City when they're at home. I've had about nine of these bets, for very large stakes, and haven't lost any. I have had some massive good fortune, such as Adam Johnson scoring a 35-yarder in injury time for 10-man Manchester City to go 3-1 up on Wolves, but a winner is a winner.

Same thing applies to HT/FT. You don't have to back the big favourite to be ahead at HT and FT, you can back any of the other outcomes or lay the favourite to be ahead at HT and FT. Sometimes the big favourite to be ahead at HT and FT is a good bet. To give one example: last season Manchester United's home record was P19 W18 D1 L0. At HT, their record was P19 W16 D3 L0. Generally if you've got a short-priced favourite, the price for them to be ahead at HT and FT is very similar for the price for them to win -1.5. If you feel they'll make a quick start, then they only need to win by one if they get in front before HT so it might be preferable than backing them to win by at least two goals.

Just like you can lay favourites on the HT/FT market, you can back teams on the handicaps with a head start. I often back outsiders with a head start, just like I back favourites to win by more than one on occasion. I often use the -1 or +1 Asian, because stakes are refunded if the favourite wins by exactly one goal and it's a good way to get better odds while having a safety net. Asian Handicaps generally have low margins, and you can almost always get close to a 100% book by shopping around. Limits are often higher on Asian Handicap bets than W/D/W market also. On the Premier League and Champions League, I have more Asian Handicap bets than any other sort of bet. To suggest that handicap betting is for mugs is ludicrous, and suggests a lack of understanding.



What I would say is that you have to be sensible, and shop around for best prices. I seem to remember that when Robbie Keane signed on loan with Celtic, people here were backing him to score hat tricks and Celtic to win by wide margins, and often these bets were at 30% or more below best price. The bookmakers European handicaps (three possible outcomes, including draw, which most people here seem to use) are often poor value generally, but if you shop around you can get decent prices.

[Ribena]

Sky Bet :-

Ross County -1
Motherwell -1
Hearts -2
Celtic -2

£10 @ 7/1


£80 Returns

[mid-table]

F_T_Y, on 04 January 2012 - 20:22, said:

Hearts -4 4/1 Yes please.

Ross., on 04 January 2012 - 20:39, said:

Still not bothered my arse to check out the odds but I was thinking Hearts -5. Someone on the junior forum quoted 14/5 for 5.5 goals or more, which seems a wee bit short if Hearts -4 is 4/1.

nelsjfc, on 04 January 2012 - 21:42, said:

Paddy Power accepted a £15 double on St.Johnstone -1 (10/11) and Hearts -3 (9/5)

Marshmallo, on 05 January 2012 - 14:10, said:

Ross County -2 at home to Stenny looks pretty good at 2.75. As does St Johnstone -2 at home to Brechin at 2,30.

Owsley, on 05 January 2012 - 23:29, said:

Sporting Bet, who I never use, had St Johnstone -2 at 3.5 earlier, done a double with Bolton -2 at Macclesfield @ 6.00, tenner returns £210.

mid-table, on 06 January 2012 - 14:30, said:

I have set myself up for a no risk epic fail.
Was just in the bookies, and unexpectedly turned £20 into £220.
Figuring that this was a nice surprise, I lumped the £200 profit on Hearts -2 at 8/11.
If it loses I genuinely won't be bothered, I haven't lost anything. If it wins then bonus.

Ribena, on 06 January 2012 - 23:29, said:

Sky Bet :-

Ross County -1
Motherwell -1
Hearts -2
Celtic -2

£10 @ 7/1


£80 Returns

All epic fails.

[The Phoenix]

F_T_Y, on 04 January 2012 - 20:22, said:

Hearts -4 4/1 Yes please.

Ross., on 04 January 2012 - 20:39, said:

Still not bothered my arse to check out the odds but I was thinking Hearts -5.

mid-table, on 04 January 2012 - 23:23, said:

I can see there being a few epic fails on this topic.

[Marshmallo]

mid-table, on 07 January 2012 - 17:00, said:

All epic fails.

Over the two handicaps I mentioned I doubled my money. "Epic fail" indeed.

[mid-table]

Marshmallo, on 07 January 2012 - 17:09, said:

Over the two handicaps I mentioned I doubled my money. "Epic fail" indeed.

Glad you agree.

[Nightmare]

Hearts bets aside, nothing else in here is really any more "epic fail" than the majority of other bets people make on any given week in football.

[clyde til we die]

mid-table, on 06 January 2012 - 14:30, said:

If it loses I genuinely won't be bothered, I haven't lost anything.

Actually you have lost something, £200 if i'm not mistaken.

[mid-table]

clyde til we die, on 08 January 2012 - 16:44, said:

Actually you have lost something, £200 if i'm not mistaken.

I was never in possession of the £200, I swapped the ticket that came out of the FOBT for a betting slip with the Hearts bet on it.
If I played roulette, started with £10, won £30 with my first spin, lost £30 with my next spin, and left with £10, I wouldn't think I'd lost £30.

[Loki]

I agree with CTWD. I would have that as a £200 loss. Although it was only profit you had lost. But It would be a red 200 in my spread sheet.

My epic fail of the weekend was talking myself out of County (-2), d'oh!

[H_B]

Loki, on 09 January 2012 - 12:29, said:

I agree with CTWD. I would have that as a £200 loss. Although it was only profit you had lost. But It would be a red 200 in my spread sheet.

Balanced out by a black £200 I assume, given he won that amount of money also.

[Loki]

H_B, on 09 January 2012 - 12:47, said:

Balanced out by a black £200 I assume, given he won that amount of money also.

Correct. I just don't follow the reasoning that profits aren't your money. You've won it. It is now yours to lose. Mid Table lost £200 there irrespective if he won it 30 seconds before hand or it was profit from gambling in general.

[H_B]

Loki, on 09 January 2012 - 13:35, said:

Correct. I just don't follow the reasoning that profits aren't your money. You've won it. It is now yours to lose. Mid Table lost £200 there irrespective if he won it 30 seconds before hand or it was profit from gambling in general.

Yeah, I know what he means though. It was money he wasn't expecting to have, so the loss of it made no difference to him.

I've done that before too. Chucked 20 quid I found in my pocket on a horse or something as I was leaving the bookies and won £100. Then chucked it on a golfer or something at 5/1. If it wins, lovely jubbly, if it doesn't, I'm no worse off.