[Kayster]

Mark Cavendish 8/15 Darren Clarke 4/1 Rory McIlroy 12/1 Mo Farah 14/1 Luke Donald 20/1 Alastair Cook 50/1 Andrew Strauss 100/1 Dai Greene 125/1 Amir Khan 150/1 Andy Murray 150/1


Im looking at sticking £20 on Clarke. 4/1 is a little too big IMO.

[Cardinal Richelieu]

Kayster, on 12 December 2011 - 13:56, said:

Mark Cavendish 8/15 Darren Clarke 4/1 Rory McIlroy 12/1 Mo Farah 14/1 Luke Donald 20/1 Alastair Cook 50/1 Andrew Strauss 100/1 Dai Greene 125/1 Amir Khan 150/1 Andy Murray 150/1


Im looking at sticking £20 on Clarke. 4/1 is a little too big IMO.

Well with my extensive knowledge of sport, I still had to look up the net to find out who Mark Cavendish is... so that's him out.

So it's really down to the Norn Irish golfers. I reckon Rory's tournament win was bigger, but then everyone's a sucker for a dead wife story and appearing half-cut on the telly the morning after your success... so I'd probably plump for Clarke too.

[HEY_SIDNEY]

Mark Cavendish.

But i dont fancy him .

[Deeboy]

I'd say it was out of Cavendish and McIlroy,

Cavendish for me.

[Steve McQueen]

It's obviously going to be Cav!

[lichtie23]

Darren Clarke doesn't even deserve to be in the running for it

[Nightmare]

Cardinal Richelieu, on 12 December 2011 - 22:26, said:

Well with my extensive knowledge of sport, I still had to look up the net to find out who Mark Cavendish is... so that's him out.

To not know who Mark Cavendish is you must have spent all summer under a rock. Either that, or not watched Sky Sports News for a few months. Which is the equivalent of living under a rock anyway.

[i cee u]

Nightmare, on 13 December 2011 - 21:33, said:

To not know who Mark Cavendish is you must have spent all summer under a rock. Either that, or not watched Sky Sports News for a few months. Which is the equivalent of living under a rock anyway.

Cavendish, just for his page 3 burd ! Clarke av to say his Open win was a fluke,his form since has been like before the Open, PISH !

[forehead7]

Nightmare, on 13 December 2011 - 21:33, said:

To not know who Mark Cavendish is you must have spent all summer under a rock. Either that, or not watched Sky Sports News for a few months. Which is the equivalent of living under a rock anyway.

Is he a cyclist? I think I recall someone saying that somewhere.

TBH, I wouldn't be betting on something if I didn't know who the odds on favourite is...

[Cardinal Richelieu]

Nightmare, on 13 December 2011 - 21:33, said:

To not know who Mark Cavendish is you must have spent all summer under a rock. Either that, or not watched Sky Sports News for a few months. Which is the equivalent of living under a rock anyway.

I have a serious aversion to all things Sky, so it's not surprising.

In fact, there are several people in here I don't even recognise.

[blue4578]

Cavendish would be a worthy winner, but I wouldn't be rushing to back him at the current prices, which look horribly short. Certainly looks like a lay. However if he did win it would follow a pattern that has emerged in recent years where consistent high achievement over a number of years eventually lands the big award. Tony McCoy, Ryan Giggs and Joe Calzaghe are three of the last four winners, and I think that this applies to all of them. McCoy won the Grand National last year, but he had won plenty of big races (and thousands of small ones) before that and hadn't come close to the award.

The golfing vote will likely be split. McIlroy's US Open win was much earlier in the year and on Sky so I'd say he is the least likely of the three golfers to win. McIlroy doesn't come across well either, so that will count against him. I would say Strauss, Khan and Murray have virtually no chance at all. Cook only has a very, very slim chance (I'd make him about 2,000/1), especially since a lot of his Ashes success came in 2010. Dai Greene probably has marginally more chance, but a world championship gold medal is hugely unlikely to overcome golf majors / money list wins and Cavendish's success. Mo Farah is a shorter price than Greene because he has won more over a longer period, but again he'll need a miracle to win this award.

Personally I think that Darren Clarke will become popular as the evening gets closer, leading to his price shortening. I reckon it will be close between him and Cavendish and my money would be on Luke Donald for third, although third place could be close between a few of them.

[blue4578]

Cardinal Richelieu, on 14 December 2011 - 17:54, said:

I have a serious aversion to all things Sky, so it's not surprising.

The Tour de France is televised on Eurosport and either ITV3 or ITV4 (don't remember which) live every day, so you don't need a Sky Sports subscription to have seen all of Cavendish's wins. Sky Sports News has only latched onto him the past few months, before that his wins just got a passing mention.

[mid-table]

i cee u, on 14 December 2011 - 17:06, said:

his form since has been like before the Open, PISH !

Although in general he hasn't had a bucketload of top 10s, he did make 17 out of 22 cuts this year, and he won the Iberdrola Open 9 weeks before the Open.

[i cee u]

mid-table, on 16 December 2011 - 19:30, said:

Although in general he hasn't had a bucketload of top 10s, he did make 17 out of 22 cuts this year, and he won the Iberdrola Open 9 weeks before the Open.

What big names played in the Iberdrola Open ? bucketload o top 10s ? not the Masters , not the U S Open, not The Players Champ, not end o season Dubai ! not saying he,s not a gifted player but he could end up being another B. Curtis, T. Hamilton, etc

[blue4578]

Darren Clarke's form in the other tournaments this year is largely irrelevant when it comes to this award, but you can't compare him to Ben Curtis or Todd Hamilton. Clarke has achieved far more than those two have, although I suppose Curtis is young enough to do more in the game. Clarke probably won't win another major, but he has won two WGC events (including beating Tiger Woods in a 36-hole final the year Woods won the US Open by 15 shots and the Open by 8 ) and been ranked in the top ten in the world.

This post has been edited by blue4578: 16 December 2011 - 20:58

[mid-table]

i cee u, on 16 December 2011 - 19:50, said:

What big names played in the Iberdrola Open ? bucketload o top 10s ? not the Masters , not the U S Open, not The Players Champ, not end o season Dubai ! not saying he,s not a gifted player but he could end up being another B. Curtis, T. Hamilton, etc

To be fair he didn't play in 3 of the 4 tournaments you named. And I said he didn't have a bucketload of top 10's. But to say his form is pish is not quite right, you don't make 17 of 22 cuts and win two tournaments by playing pish.

[i cee u]

mid-table, on 16 December 2011 - 23:13, said:

To be fair he didn't play in 3 of the 4 tournaments you named. And I said he didn't have a bucketload of top 10's. But to say his form is pish is not quite right, you don't make 17 of 22 cuts and win two tournaments by playing pish.

we shall see how he gets on next year,have you watched him in last 2 events, Pish ! never forgave the git for 3 putting against D love in the Ryder Cup a few years back ! am no bitter

This post has been edited by i cee u: 17 December 2011 - 15:09

[blue4578]

You couldn't miss the point any more if you were trying to.

[mid-table]

And my points have no bearing on whether he will win SPOTY either, no won ever won it for making 17/22 cuts and winning a reduced field European Tour event. My point was that the rest of his 2011 form wasn't what I would call pish.

[blue4578]

Indeed, he could've missed every cut bar the Open and it wouldn't have made that much difference to this. Perhaps it would've even helped him as he'd have won even more out of the blue. McIlroy has had a far better year, lots of top 10's/top 5's with a few wins and is world number two (until tomorrow) but you'll not find many people thinking he has more chance than Clarke to win this. My point about Clarke having had a better career than Curtis or Hamilton is irrelevant also.

Back on the subject of SPOTY, I often have quite a good feel for this but I don't feel particularly confident about having a bet on it as it stands. I am just not sure Cavendish is going to be as popular with the people voting as the odds indicate. He has shortened since the other day, and the odds imply he is about 72% likely to win as it stands. Some of the media is helping generate this momentum for him winning this award, but are people going to take notice of what is written when they're voting? It will obviously affect some people, but I just think on the evening the BBC coverage will look more favourable to Clarke than it will to Cavendish, particularly as the BBC has full TV rights for the Open.

[fanny paddery]

Blue, the media has had a real big impact on this over the last couple of years. There was alot of momentum for hoy then last year the media coverage for AP was unreal. A jockey winning SPOTY would have been unthinkable a few years ago but with the backing of the BBC he started the night at around 1/2. This year the push is for CAV and it looks like he could def do it.

[blue4578]

This is true, as I acknowledged, upto a point. McCoy was an obvious winner given he finally landed the Grand National, as he is popular not just with the BBC, but with most other media outlets and the public in general. Go back to 2008 though. Here is the thread here: http://www.pieandbov...ts-personality/

It was obvious that Lewis Hamilton was an extremely weak favourite initially (as I pointed out). Hoy was still available at 6/1 a few days before the award was given out. A large amount of the media coverage was for Adlington, which caused her odds to crash, and she ended up third. The media obviously have an influence due to their coverage, but the written media can only influence so many people upto a certain point. The BBC coverage on the night will be extremely influential, and I just think that Darren Clarke will get more favourable coverage from them than Mark Cavendish. Cavendish is the most likely winner, but his odds are too short.

All this demonstrates what a good market this is to be involved in over the year if you've the patience. I think I tried to do that in 2009 but lost interest. You can lay people just as they look like they might have a major win (look at Murray's price graph on Betfair for example), and you can back people who turn out to be real contenders at massive odds. I know it's very, very easy for me to say now, but if I'd been looking at this market over the summer, I'd likely have had a dabble on Cavendish at over 50/1 because the media have finally started to latch onto his achievements, which are astonishing. Winning the world title probably tipped him over the edge in terms of being their "chosen one", but even without that he had a fair chance I reckon. He's already a star in Continental Europe, and is finally getting deserved recognition here.

With 2012 being on Olympic year, I am going to get involved on this market on Betfair throughout the year. I just need to show more patience and stick with it when little is happening. I would be very surprised if several people didn't trade at 3/1 or 4/1 without coming close to winning the award. Perhaps even a couple will trade massively odds-on and fail to win, like Hamilton and Adlington in 2008. If I'm laying people like that, the absolutely ideal scenario would be for Andy Murray to win the US Open, but none of the previous three grand slams. I believe if he wins the first singles grand slam by a British male since 1936, this trumps everything else almost certainly. We'll see what happens anyway.

[sgm2]

Darren Clarke is outstanding value at around 6/1!! There is no doubting Cavendish's achievements but will he really appeal to the "great british public?" They are a sucker for a fairytale story and when the BBC coverage shows Clarke's emotional journey (Wife, Ryder Cup etc) the votes will come flooding in...

[blue4578]

Top three from recent years:

2010
1. Tony McCoy 293,152 votes
2. Phil Taylor 72,095
3. Jessica Ennis 62,953

2009
1. Ryan Giggs 151,842
2. Jenson Button 96,770
3. Jessica Ennis 80,469

2008
1. Chris Hoy 283,630 votes
2. Lewis Hamilton 163,864
3. Rebecca Adlington 145,924


I don't see why we don't start a P&B "let's all vote for Darren Clarke" campaign. It costs 10p or 20p (?) per vote from a landline I think. Clarke is almost 7/1 now, so if we all stick a good few quid on, we can make it worthwhile. I'd be good for at least 200 votes. I don't think there's any restriction on the same phone number voting multiple times. If we can get at least 200 people to vote at least 100 times each, it could tip the balance if it's close.

[#Gary]

Steve Kean