[McKee]

blue4578, on 29 August 2011 - 23:50, said:

Not really been the most enthralling day today, although Troicki and Bellucci just both threw away winning positions to lose in fairly unlikely circumstances.

Troicki has always had that element in him though, turning into even more of an unforced error machine in the tight moments. A mental midget to beat all mental midgets. I tuned into the Falla-Troicki mathc in the 4th set at about 3-4 I think, I ended up turning it off early in the 5th, it really was an played at an awful standard. The game with Falla serving at 4-5 was particularly brutal, a total chokefest.

This post has been edited by McKee: 30 August 2011 - 00:46

[blue4578]

Troicki often blows winning positions in grand slams, I can think of at least three other matches he has blown when victory was in his grasp. I'm just surprised that he is ranked as high as he is.

Federer looks wildly erratic tonight against Giraldo. Based on this performance, he'll lose before the semi finals against someone who will take advantage of all the gifts he is offering up. Sela in the next round has little or no chance and Federer actually has a good looking path to the quarter finals, but I wouldn't put the house on him beating Cilic or Tomic in round three.

[McKee]

Gublis played well today, he was excellent on the big points, suprising as it sounds. From memory he saved 11/11 break points as well as converting around 60% og his own. His serve in particular was impressive and must have saved him at least half of the break pointst.. Clutch serving at it's very best.

[nessies long lost ghost]

Baltacha wins after Hampton retires just as she was about to get beat.



the score was 2 - 6 6 - 2 5 - 1

[blue4578]

Gulbis won a match at a grand slam event. Since he last did it at Wimbledon 2009, he has only managed one set. Good result today, but no doubt he'll lose in straight sets in the next round.

Just watching Keothavong v Scheepers. The umpire is having an absolute nightmare with the pronunciations.

[Nightmare]

nessies long lost ghost, on 30 August 2011 - 21:14, said:

Baltacha wins after Hampton retires just as she was about to get beat.



the score was 2 - 6 6 - 2 5 - 1

What are you rolling your eyes for? She collapsed on the court. Hardly "retiring as she was about to get beat".

[nessies long lost ghost]

Nightmare, on 30 August 2011 - 23:53, said:

What are you rolling your eyes for? She collapsed on the court. Hardly "retiring as she was about to get beat".

Yeah, I posted that before I seen that she had retired through collapsing. Stupid post by me.

[McKee]

So I'm guessing Nadal played like utter shite last night since Golubev pretty much threw away all 3 sets?

[lichtie23]

nessies long lost ghost, on 31 August 2011 - 13:01, said:

Yeah, I posted that before I seen that she had retired through collapsing. Stupid post by me.

As in fainted?

[blue4578]

McKee, on 31 August 2011 - 15:03, said:

So I'm guessing Nadal played like utter shite last night since Golubev pretty much threw away all 3 sets?

Not really the first set so much, but yes a decent player would've beaten him. Mahut has virtually no chance next round, but Nadal is miles away from playing well enough to win the US Open. Murray would be a massive favourite against him if they played tomorrow.

lichtie23, on 31 August 2011 - 15:51, said:

As in fainted?

Yes. Then the umpire gave her a warning for a time violation. Baltacha went to help her, and had a moan at the umpire for the warning.

[#Gary]

An excellent opening game but Murray is broken.

[lichtie23]

garymcc1874, on 31 August 2011 - 17:56, said:

An excellent opening game but Murray is broken.

Murray to win in 4

[#Gary]

lichtie23, on 31 August 2011 - 18:09, said:

Murray to win in 4

I'm almost certain he'll win in 3. He's broken back in the first set and the way this other dude plays is not sustainable over any long period of time against a player like Murray. He's entertaining though.

This post has been edited by garymcc1874: 31 August 2011 - 18:29

[#Gary]

This is entertaining as fck btw. If you're not watching already, you should tune in.

This post has been edited by garymcc1874: 31 August 2011 - 18:44

[blue4578]

Arthur Ashe Stadium Court seems to be playing slower than the outside courts. This has been a poor match thus far to be honest, Murray has played very poorly. Devvarman has nothing that would worry any good player but good effort from him so far.

This post has been edited by blue4578: 31 August 2011 - 18:52

[#Gary]

Couldn't ask for much more than that in a 1st round match tbh.

[blue4578]

Might've helped if he'd actually played well? Awful first set, marginally better in the second and third, helped by Devvarman dropping off a bit after losing the tie break. I could go out there and play Murray and lose 6-0 6-0 6-0 but that wouldn't mean he'd played a good match. Devvarman is out of his depth against anyone in the top 20. Murray's draw is decent so he certainly shouldn't lose in the first three rounds. Haase in round two can be dangerous on his day, but is prone to implosions. Would be Feliciano Lopez or Pospisil after that, which again should be straightforward. Lopez was very poor in beating Ito in straight sets today. We'll know more about Murray once he has played Haase. To be fair though, none of the top players have exactly set the world alight so far.

[bunkmedal]

Murray was playing a bit too aggressively as far as I'm concerned. I don't buy into this myth that he has to abandon his natural game and start firing winners all over the court to win a slam. Most of the time he actually tries to play like that it turns out to be half as effective as his normal style of play.

It is the first round, though, so too early to judge the form of the main contenders. I'm certainly not going to read much into Nadal being out of form this time round - he's been "out of form" countless times in the early rounds of slams recently, only for the theory to evaporate when he reaches the quarter-final stages and starts playing well again.

[McKee]

I'm not watching it, but I really hope Roddick loses here. Would be the start of a hilarious wind-down for the luckiest man in tennis.

[IrishBhoy]

Lost a fuking fortune on Cibulkova last night. At one point was as low as 1.03 to back.

Blue could I ask you a question on the way the market moves on in play tennis on Betfair.

I was wondering why the price changes so quickly, assuming that the price changes due to weight of money being backed/layed, at insignificant points during a match.

For example;

Nadal V Federer

Nadal is serving with his back price at 1.33, he misses his first serve and the price goes to 1.34. He then goes on to lose the point and it then goes to 1.37. Surely people arent backing Federer/laying Nadal when they see a 1st service has been missed even at very early stages of a match.

[blue4578]

Yes they are.

There are some people with very sophisticated mathematical models, fast pictures (some even have people courtside to gain an advantage) and using software to alter their prices after every point, and on occasion even after a first serve has missed. These people, if they know what they are doing, can make literally millions per year. This is one reason for the ridiculous recent increase in the Premium Charge, but that's another story. Obviously it's not quite the same for minor non-televised events, but the prices can be very fluid and sensitive on major televised events. This is good as you can always pretty much back and lay in near 100% markets; excellent if you can identify the value at any given point. I personally couldn't be bothered with the level of concentration required to try to bet point to point, although obviously you can design a model and software to do it for you.

Regarding Cibulkova, she is very erratic. She really goes for it, and if she has a bit of a dip she can lose three or four games in no time. She should never have lost to Falconi, who is a pretty poor player, but she just handed it to her in the third set. You weren't the only one cursing at the end. As I think I might've said across at the gambling forum, the courts (particularly the show courts) are playing slower than usual, so it is easier to break serve than it would be normally, so comebacks are more likely than usual. I have counted five players trading at 1.01 or 1.02 who have been beaten the first two days. Worth bearing in mind, particularly if you're betting in-running. It's always good to have an idea how likely it is people are going to hold serve if you're betting during the match.

McKee, on 01 September 2011 - 02:21, said:

I'm not watching it, but I really hope Roddick loses here. Would be the start of a hilarious wind-down for the luckiest man in tennis.

Didn't think he was ever going to lose against Russell, even when he went a break down at the start of the fourth set. Probably won't get very far in the tournament though, certainly he needs to improve a lot to make the second week. How is he the luckiest man in tennis though? Anyone watching the 2009 Wimbledon final for example might say he was rather unfortunate.

[IrishBhoy]

The thing that im cursing about most is I had
so many oppurtunities to trade out but decided to let it run. When she was 4-1 up in the third I thought she had it.

Suppose it was more just greed on my part part but it was a hard lesson learnt. I had being going well so far aswell in this tournament.

That is a few times I have been badly burnt in womans tennis though. Georges done me for a small fortune at Wimbledon aswell.

[blue4578]

I did the same yesterday on Bogomolov to beat Johnson. Johnson is ranked 525, and is a student (won the NCAA championship) not a full time tennis professional. Johnson started cramping badly in the fourth set and at this point I was in way too deep on Bogomolov, who to be fair is utterly rubbish. How he beat Andy Murray earlier this year I'll never know. I let it ride in the fifth and he did win it in the end but the loss would've been very hard to take if he'd lost. Johnson recovered pretty well from the cramp and made a good go of it. Ill advised bet on my part, but wasn't punished for it this time. I've lost fortunes on people who have had multiple match points, doesn't get much worse than that.

Like I say, just be aware that the courts are slower, so people can come back from 4-1 in a set much easier than usual at the US Open. The outside courts aren't so slow, but the match with Falconi got moved when Venus Williams withdrew. Your bet might've won if it was played on the court it was supposed to be played on.

For today, looks like a lot of one-sided matches on the main courts. I'll be interested to see how Baltacha does against Kuznetsova. Kuznetsova is a former winner, but it's certainly not mission impossible for Baltacha like it would've been in previous years. She'll probably lose, but I hope she can pull it off.

[IrishBhoy]

Yep. Im sure it wont be the biggest amount I will lose. I am still young and every time I lose a lot of money I just see it as a mistake I need to learn from. The thing I need to get better at is judging the right time to get out of the bet. You would think in a drawn out tennis match you would have plenty of time to see if things were going wrong for you. Its amazing how quickly you can go from calm and collected to 'f**k f**k f**k'.

Im going to knock the tennis betting on the head for the rest of the tournament that loss last night has eaten into a chunk of my bank and I need to keep my bank high for laying the horses.

This post has been edited by IrishBhoy: 01 September 2011 - 15:02

[IrishBhoy]

Whats everyone expecting of Murray tonight?

Expecting him to win in 3, two of those being tight sets.