[RCR]

Bri RCFC, on 30 January 2012 - 17:08, said:

i wouldn't wish that feeling on anyone, Helicopter flying in as we were relegated! Worse feeling in football without a doubt!

In a way I'd like it to go to the wire, just so we get a helicopter.

[Spain]

RCR, on 30 January 2012 - 17:54, said:

In a way I'd like it to go to the wire, just so we get a helicopter.

Crazy fool!


I've had a better idea, we'll just spend all the millions and millions that we have on our own helicopter.

[The Troll]

Spain, on 30 January 2012 - 07:46, said:

Yes, what a horrible, horrible punishment that would be for us.

Ask Dunfermline fans how enjoyable the SPL is....

yoda, on 30 January 2012 - 08:35, said:

I'll see you next year yoda, keep on smiling

RCR, on 30 January 2012 - 10:12, said:

I'm not sure what "the troll" is talking about. I fully expect County to win the SPL, Champions league, and possibly some other world wide super league that hasn't been invented yet.

+1

This post has been edited by The Troll: 30 January 2012 - 20:07

[Spain]

The Troll, on 30 January 2012 - 20:06, said:

Ask Dunfermline fans how enjoyable the SPL is....

Yeah, but Dunfermline spunked all their money away getting there, whereas we are the "richest club in Scotland" and will undoubtedly buy our way to the aforementioned Champions League success.

[yoda]

Bump.

Since we had a Katy Perry photo on the last page, it makes sense to have one on this page.




She's even dyed her hair blue in support of County.

[Spain]

yoda, on 02 February 2012 - 14:27, said:

Bump.

Since we had a Katy Perry photo on the last page, it makes sense to have one on this page.




She's even dyed her hair blue in support of County.

Yes, but she's not showing anywhere near enough skin there.

[Ieuan16]

Bump.

[Spain]

Update on ye olde statistics.

With the Falkirk game being postponed from next week due to their cup replay, we are now guaranteed to make it 4 months at the top of the league. We're safe up here until the 18th of February at least, and we've been here since the 15th of October.

Also, this weekends game could see us reach 6 months undefeated in the league.

[Spain]

Actually 4 months top may sound like a long time, but to win the league we'd have to be here for just over another 3. May seems oh so far away.

[bunglebonce]

I can't say that I'm disappointed today's results in the slightest. The status quo is maintained, with County effectively three points closer to the title.

[morrison]

It would have been nice to extend the lead, but that's just plain greedy. Two home league games coming up after the replay if I remember rightly before we travel to Dundee, so hopefully we can get back to winning ways at the fortress that is Victoria Park.

[staggy4life]

Does any other team want to challenge us? Every time we slip up with a draw the others don't take advantage. Happy days for now!

[ditots]

The league is over, close the thread.

[staggy4life]

Just looking at the next two fixtures:

Saturday 18th:

Hamilton v Falkirk
Ross County v Ayr
Queens v Dundee

Tuesday 21st:

Ross County v Morton
Falkirk v Dundee

We need to take advantage of this as I'd say we have the easier games here!

[yoda]

Well this is nice. It's like Falkirk and Dundee don't actually want to win the league.

[mattydfc]

To be honest, I'd say it was more of a case of not being good enough rather than not wanting too. I reckon County will do well in the SPL.

[Spain]

6 months undefeated in the league now, but it'd be nice to get back to winning ways again.

[Spain]

I like stats. So with that in mind, it's time to share some updated stats because we are now getting towards the important numbers stage.

In the last 10 seasons, the league has been won with the following points tallies:
81, 76 (x2), 75, 73, 70 (x2), 66 (x2), & 65. Averaging out at 72.

In the last 10 seasons, 2nd place has totalled:
72, 69 (x2), 66, 65, 61, 60 (x2), 56 & 55. Averaging out at 63.

The current top 3 teams are on:
County: 41
Falkirk: 36
Dundee: 35

With the remaining points left available (48 for County, 42 for the other two), the highest possible points tallies for each of the top 3 are as follows:
County: 89
Falkirk: 78
Dundee: 77

You'll notice that Falkirk and Dundee's best possible points scenario's are now already less than the highest points tally achieved in the last 10 seasons, and only two more losses for each will see them drop below the average championship winning tally.

4 more loses for Dundee, and only one point more than that dropped by Falkirk, and they would be unable to reach any more than the lowest title winning tally of 65.

This all sounds more than promising for us, but if you look at our own averages, the average points tally for the overall champions after 20 games is 41 (the same as us), meaning that although we're looking good, history suggests we're not marching away with it as much some people make out.

Personally, I feel 70 points will be plenty to win the league this season. To achieve 70 points, we would need one of the followind W/D/L combinations or better:
W9, D2, L5
W8, D5, L3
W7, D8, L1

Perhaps this is all a little disjointed, but I hope some of you can make sense of it and are as nerdy as me to appreciate it. Essentially what I'm saying is that the countdown is well and truly on now.

Edit: Just realised I made a mistake in a forumula in my spreadsheet last week, our task is actually easier than I first described.

This post has been edited by Spain: 21 February 2012 - 08:59

[Sherrif John Bunnell]

Stats don't matter I'm afraid. Our 3rd strings humiliating defeat to St Mirren has clearly ruined our season.

[bunglebonce]

Thanks for the stats. It really puts the current position in context.

There is some scope for a parallel with St Johnstone winning the title. Their title winning season included a 22 match unbeaten run, comprising 11 wins and 11 draws.

County are currently unbeaten in 18*, with 10 wins and 8 draws.

The W9, D7, L0 scenario, or something close to it, isn't implausible.

This post has been edited by bunglebonce: 15 February 2012 - 13:13

[yoda]

Staggy4life mentioned that we have the "easiest" (on paper) next two games. In an ideal world (potentially realistic?) this happens before the start of March:

Falkirk = WDW (7 points)
Dundee = WDD (5 points)
County = WWDW (10 points)

We start March as follows:

County = 51 points (played 24)
Falkirk = 43 points (played 25)
Dundee = 40 points (played 25)


March is the key month.

County play = QotS (H), Thistle (H)*, Accies (A), Falkirk (H), Thistle (A), Rovers (H)
Falkirk play = Ayr (A), Thistle (H), County (A), Morton (H)*, Livingston (H)
Dundee play = Livingston (A), Ayr (H), Morton (A), Accies (A)*, Rovers (H)

*denoted midweek game.

Falkirk could potentially have two midweek games, with their game against Thistle being moved if they get through to the Scottish Cup QFs. Really, County must win every home game in March. That's 12 points, and even accounting for two away defeats, Falkirk gain 0 points (if they win every game bar County away) with Dundee gaining only 3 points (if they win every game).

The end of March (if the above scenarios pan out) see the table looking like:

County = 63 points (played 30)
Falkirk = 55 points (played 30)
Dundee = 55 points (played 30)

The final 6 games see the following fixtures:

County = Livingston (A), Ayr (A)*, Dundee (H), Morton (A), Accies (H), QotS (A)
Falkirk = Dundee (A), Accies (H)*, QotS (A), Rovers (H), Thistle (A), Ayr (H)
Dundee = Falkirk (H), QotS (H)*, Ross County (A), Thistle (H), Ayr (A), Livingston (H)



I'm well aware I'm getting ahead of myself, but this could be a realistic situation if County pick up 10 points from their 4 games this month.

[Spain]

The sad thing is, all my stats are now in a spreadsheet that is easily updatable. So I can keep following all these possibilities easily after each game.

In a way, the stats don't matter, we simply have to keep scoring the same as, or more than Falkirk and Dundee, but they do give us a good indication.

I'll still repost the stats every so often after rounds of games.

[Spain]

You know how I love stats? Well, I thought I'd share another interesting few with you.


We haven't won a single league match in which Steven Craig has started.

We have won half (2/4) of the league matches when Steven Craig has come on as a sub (one of which he scored both goals late in a 2-0 win over QotS)


Take from that what you will folks.

[bunglebonce]

When Craig became banned for 8 games, County began a nine-game winning streak in the league.

Is it bad that I was secretly content with his ridiculous ban?

[10 CC ICT]

RCR, on 30 January 2012 - 17:54, said:

In a way I'd like it to go to the wire, just so we get a helicopter.

Trust me, walking to the last game of the season knowing there's a promotion party about to start only interrupted by a football match is very pleasing.