[ss..schlecht]

I seem to keep picking the other 30%. I've been fucking atrocious so far this season. Oh well, give it another go today.

[fueradejuego]

Homes:-

Spurs
PSG
Barcelona
Huddersfield
Southampton

Away / Draws:-

Arsenal
Bordeaux
Lille
AC Milan
Real Madrid
West Ham
Charlton
Swindon

[Paulo Sergio]

The easiest thing to do IMO is stick to the SPL, Divisions 1, 2, and 3 (although caution is needed in the Scottish leagues, it can be a bit of a minefield sometimes), the Premiership, Championship, Leagues 1 & 2, and finally the Blue Square Bet Premier Conference (only this one, not the North and South).

Then look for the top 2-6 teams in the English leagues, and the top 3-4 in Scotland, then check who they are playing. Then the most important thing - checking form. A team could be 2nd in the league but without a win in three games versus a team 18th in the league but unbeaten in four etc. Finally, if the odd's are reasonable, go for it. Double check and once you're sure choose a cheeky 3 or 4 team coupon (I would only pick 5 teams if I felt really confident or the odds were generally quite poor with just 3 or 4 strong favourites).

Take note that I've only done two bets with this method, but won them both.

£2 for £40 and £5 for £75 - both four team coupons.

[IrishBhoy]

Paulo Sergio, on 19 November 2011 - 18:38, said:

The easiest thing to do IMO is stick to the SPL, Divisions 1, 2, and 3 (although caution is needed in the Scottish leagues, it can be a bit of a minefield sometimes), the Premiership, Championship, Leagues 1 & 2, and finally the Blue Square Bet Premier Conference (only this one, not the North and South).

Then look for the top 2-6 teams in the English leagues, and the top 3-4 in Scotland, then check who they are playing. Then the most important thing - checking form. A team could be 2nd in the league but without a win in three games versus a team 18th in the league but unbeaten in four etc. Finally, if the odd's are reasonable, go for it. Double check and once you're sure choose a cheeky 3 or 4 team coupon (I would only pick 5 teams if I felt really confident or the odds were generally quite poor with just 3 or 4 strong favourites).

Take note that I've only done two bets with this method, but won them both.

£2 for £40 and £5 for £75 - both four team coupons.

Cheers for this info. Will probably never lose another football bet again with this priceless peice of information.

Suprised you let this out the bag tbh. I would have kept it to myself, shutting down all major bookies in the process.

[Swampy]

Paulo Sergio, on 19 November 2011 - 18:38, said:

The easiest thing to do IMO is stick to the SPL, Divisions 1, 2, and 3 (although caution is needed in the Scottish leagues, it can be a bit of a minefield sometimes), the Premiership, Championship, Leagues 1 & 2, and finally the Blue Square Bet Premier Conference (only this one, not the North and South).

Then look for the top 2-6 teams in the English leagues, and the top 3-4 in Scotland, then check who they are playing. Then the most important thing - checking form. A team could be 2nd in the league but without a win in three games versus a team 18th in the league but unbeaten in four etc. Finally, if the odd's are reasonable, go for it. Double check and once you're sure choose a cheeky 3 or 4 team coupon (I would only pick 5 teams if I felt really confident or the odds were generally quite poor with just 3 or 4 strong favourites).

Take note that I've only done two bets with this method, but won them both.

£2 for £40 and £5 for £75 - both four team coupons.

This is probably the worst advice I've ever read.

Do you think bookies don't take form into account or something? You're talking like you've discovered the Ark of the Covenant.

And a sample size of two, wow.

[fueradejuego]

Homes:-

Athletic Bilbao
Real Madrid
Lille
St Etienne
AC Milan
Arsenal
Chelsea
MK Dons
Stevanage
Gillingham
Swindon

Away / Draw:-

Barcelona
Montpellier
Gladbach
Bayern Munich
Man City
Sheffield Utd
Crawley Town


I like the look of Athletic and Montpellier and will probably have that as a double.

[Phantom Bud]

Arsenal and Barcelona let me down. I take it the system is based on league form and doesn't take into account the possibility of fatigue after midweek CL/Europa games?

[fueradejuego]

Correct.

League form only.

I don't tend to back big teams after international games but CL games do not bother me as much.

[fanny paddery]

fueradejuego, on 27 November 2011 - 14:03, said:

Correct.

League form only.

I don't tend to back big teams after international games but CL games do not bother me as much.

Hows this going, bit of a shambles? Can u not narrow it down to Naps rather than maybes?

[fueradejuego]

fanny paddery, on 27 November 2011 - 21:16, said:

Hows this going, bit of a shambles? Can u not narrow it down to Naps rather than maybes?

Sitting at 73% correct predictions overall. Bit lower than I was hoping for and slightly down on this point last season.

Homes are in the mid 60's whilst away / draws are in the low 80's.

Been looking to see how I can improve the ratings but you are still going to get things like Getafe beating Barcelona yesterday etc.

[HEY_SIDNEY]

Tbh most people who put a coupon/line on are usually in the high 70 low 80% bracket.

Take 4-8 tams which is standard for most peoples accies. there bound to get 70-80% corrct no??

4 team accy i would say 80% of people would get 3 outta 4. (75%)
8 team accy i would say 70% of people would get 5/6 outta 8 (65-80%)

Thats the average joe picking teams like the ones you have named in your predicted home wins.....


Im not slagging what your doin, just feel its not really any different to what most people would probably pick anyway.

[Marshmallo]

HEY_SIDNEY, on 28 November 2011 - 05:50, said:

Tbh most people who put a coupon/line on are usually in the high 70 low 80% bracket.

Take 4-8 tams which is standard for most peoples accies. there bound to get 70-80% corrct no??

4 team accy i would say 80% of people would get 3 outta 4. (75%)
8 team accy i would say 70% of people would get 5/6 outta 8 (65-80%)

Thats the average joe picking teams like the ones you have named in your predicted home wins.....


Im not slagging what your doin, just feel its not really any different to what most people would probably pick anyway.

What's your sample size for those stats?

[HEY_SIDNEY]

Marshmallo, on 28 November 2011 - 09:18, said:

What's your sample size for those stats?

Just an estimate between friends, family, punters and people on here. so wide enough imo.

[H_B]

Paulo Sergio, on 19 November 2011 - 18:38, said:

Then the most important thing - checking form.

Quote

Take note that I've only done two bets with this method, but won them both.

£2 for £40 and £5 for £75 - both four team coupons.

Yeah, course you did

[H_B]

HEY_SIDNEY, on 28 November 2011 - 05:50, said:

Im not slagging what your doin, just feel its not really any different to what most people would probably pick anyway.

As I tried to say earlier win percentage is completely meaningless as a stat of itself, without reference to the price.

If you bet Barcelona to win every home game you will have a win percentage way in excess of 90%. Your profits, should you have any, will be small though.

I disagree with your stats incidentally. In my experience people putting on coupons choose relatively highly priced teams. 5/4, 11/8 type thing. I expect a success percentage over Britain per coupon would be something closer to 50%, if even that.

[fueradejuego]

H_B, on 28 November 2011 - 10:41, said:

As I tried to say earlier win percentage is completely meaningless as a stat of itself, without reference to the price.

If you bet Barcelona to win every home game you will have a win percentage way in excess of 90%. Your profits, should you have any, will be small though.

I had a look back through the seaon to date.

There have been 9 La Liga selections during which time Barcelona have been selected 7 times and "won" 5.

I include all teams which meet the criteria but I don't tend to include teams at less than 1.2 too often.

I don't disagree with what you are saying. It just depends upon how you are looking to progress betting wise. Are you are with big money on short odds or would you rather go small on large odds? I don't have an issue with big stakes on short priced favourites. I have won plenty and been stung heavily on a few occasions.

Bookies tend to overprice the favourites slightly. On first reading, that will sound ridiculous, but a bookie would rather take a hit on Barca being priced at 1.2 (when arguably the true odds should be 1.15) than take a hit on Getafe being priced correctly at 8/1 when they can get away with pricing them at 6/1 or 7/1.

I set out what I was hoping to do at the outset of this thread. If people are happy for me to keep posting what the spreadsheet produces I will do so. If not I will stop posting. Its basically a framework for identifying teams who should statistically win.

So far this season there have been 166 games witha 73% success rate - that is slightly down on last season. There have been a number of "losers" in League 1 and League 2. The flip side of that is that the odds in these leagues tend to be a bit better but the leagues are more unpredictable. I am in the process of working out the best leagues in terms of predictions and thereafter will look at the most successful teams.

Montpellier are possibly the best. There have been 9 selections from Ligue 1 and Montpellier have cropped up 6 times. They have "won" on each occasion and their odds are usually quite good. I think the lowest I have seen them is about 1.3 when away from home on the +1 option.

['Steve]

I find the list quite useful. I tend pick out most of them already having skimmed through the coupon but there are often some foreign games which I don't notice.

[HEY_SIDNEY]

H_B, on 28 November 2011 - 10:41, said:

As I tried to say earlier win percentage is completely meaningless as a stat of itself, without reference to the price.

If you bet Barcelona to win every home game you will have a win percentage way in excess of 90%. Your profits, should you have any, will be small though.

I disagree with your stats incidentally. In my experience people putting on coupons choose relatively highly priced teams. 5/4, 11/8 type thing. I expect a success percentage over Britain per coupon would be something closer to 50%, if even that.

Whereas i feel people are more likely to go for 10/11, 4/7, 4/6 shots in an accumulator.....

I understand what your sayin tho actually. If u had bet Madrid, Man City & Rangers this year you would be 90%ish but horrible small returns. if thats your thing. However a dont see many people who just look for those small returns. i would say the majority of people look for that 'decent win'

They look at Sheff Wed, Soton, MkDons, charlton all at home along with a Cheltenham thrown in there at a reasonable price to pull winnings up slightly.

['Steve]

Tips this week Sir?

[Paulo Sergio]

IrishBhoy, on 22 November 2011 - 04:23, said:

Cheers for this info. Will probably never lose another football bet again with this priceless peice of information.

Suprised you let this out the bag tbh. I would have kept it to myself, shutting down all major bookies in the process.

Swampy, on 23 November 2011 - 22:01, said:

This is probably the worst advice I've ever read.

Do you think bookies don't take form into account or something? You're talking like you've discovered the Ark of the Covenant.

And a sample size of two, wow.

H_B, on 28 November 2011 - 10:38, said:

Yeah, course you did

Virgins.

[fueradejuego]

'Steve, on 02 December 2011 - 17:02, said:

Tips this week Sir?

Been that busy this week that I have not even looked at it yet.

I will try and get something up but its likely to be tomorrow morning before 11am.

[Swampy]

Aurora Borealis, on 02 December 2011 - 20:39, said:

Virgins.

You always start posting these wee one word responses whenever you get rattled, Aurora. It's a giveaway every time

[IrishBhoy]

Paulo Sergio, on 02 December 2011 - 20:39, said:

Virgins.

Paulo why dont you start your own thread, keep everyone up to date with your bets. How could it fail when you are doing the most important thing of all, checking form.

For years I have been going into bookies picking teams at random and never winning. Your foresight on this matter has been life changing for me. After checking form I have now won two £2 accumulators and must be up a good £12 now.