[Desert Nomad]

With the 2009 Tour de France only just over a week away now thought it was about time to open a thread. Who will win the yellow jersey when they reach Paris?
Latest odds

Contador the red-hot favourite, but odds a bit nippy I think. Menchov a good each-way shot, but might be tired after the Giro. Same for last years winner Sastre.

[Shengus Khan]

Don't really know much about the Tour De France but what are Mark Cavendish's chances of taking the green jersey?

[Mackie The Staggie]

Shengus Khan, on Jun 29 2009, 12:06, said:

Don't really know much about the Tour De France but what are Mark Cavendish's chances of taking the green jersey?

Worth an outside bet, but only if he intends to go through the Mountains, I think he pulled out of the Giro d'Italia (Tour of Italy) when they reached the mountains.

[Musketeer Gripweed]

Cav was pulled from the Giro by his team to save himself for the Tour. He will win 5 stages this year. That should be enough for the green.

The overall tour isn't that hilly this year with few mountain top finishes. A good time trialer/semi decent climber will win it this year. In fact, it is set up for Armstrong. He won't win it though, Cadel Evans will.

[FC_1919]

I really enjoy watching this, sadly don't really know much about tactics etc. I like the Schlek brothers, really like how they work hard for their team.

[Sermani]

Hope the winner this year is the sport of cycling. Great event to watch especially in the mountains, the crowd support is phenomenal. The sheer effort of the riders is outstanding.

But every year the event seems to get spoiled by drug cheats. Someone gets caught, then the French Police raid hotels, teams withdrawn. Just seems to tarnish the whole event.

[SJ1210]

I think it will be Contador but that will all depend on how Astana play things. If he's left on his own or with little support he may struggle against the likes of Andy Schleck who will have a strong Saxobank team behind him. The problem with Astana is having 3 potential winners in Contador, Armstrong and Leipheimer, teams going in without a clear leader tend to be self destructive.

I don't see Cadel Evans winning as he will be on his own, his Silence Lotto team aren't the strongest and he does not get the support from his team mates the way Armstrong did with USPS or the way CSC did with Schleck.

Cavendish could easily win the Green jersey as long as he can get through the whole tour. My biggest gripe with the previous best sprinter Mario Cippolini was he always abandoned after the first week and a few stage wins.

My predictions
Yellow - Alberto Contador
KOM - David Moncoutie
Green - Mark Cavendish
White - Andy Schleck

[Mr. Brightside]

Hopefully Oscar Pereiro or Andy Schleck wins Le Tour this year.

[myshkin]

Closed the topic on the gambling forum as this one appears to be where people are passing comment.

It's a pure climbers route with very little time trialing. Only a failed test will stop Contador from winning it. As such he should be backed to win the polka dot jersey as well.

I have also backed Oscar Freire to win the green jersey. Cavendish is an unlikely finisher while Freire is almost certain to be in Paris as he climbs well.

[drs]

Anyone but that Thunderbirds lookalike Evans to win.

[Desert Nomad]

Have taken Menchov e/w at 16/1, could be tough after the Giro, but decent odds.

Will be interesting to see how Cav takes to the challenge of getting over the mountains. I still think he would like to make Paris winning as many stages as possible(including the Champs Elseyes), without having to worry about the day-2-day competing for the green jersey in intermediate sprints/lower placings.
David Millar could have a shot at the opening stage, will have to go some to beat Cancellara mind.

[T_S_A_R]

cannae wait for the tour to start although i'm a bit disapointed that valaverde and boonen won't be there. it's also a bit shite that after a cracking giro LPR brakes aren't involved - pettachi and di luca are great entertainment. also disapointing that sam sanchez is missing it to concentrate on the vuelta.

it looks like a straight saxo-bank vs astana scrap for me, caisse d'espangre have a strong team but no real leader without valverde. most experts seem to think that it'll stay tight until the penultimate stage (mount ventoux) and if it does it will be a straight scrap between contador, the schlecks and sastre if he can hang in on his own. hopefully cancellara will dominate the TTs, oscar freire for the green jersey and soler for the mountains.

my biggest hope is that there isn't much doping scandal. riders should be smart enough now to know that they'll get caught. last year it was obvious ricco and schumacher were doping even before they failed the tests. the days of the likes of virenque, armstrong or ullrich blowing away the rest of the peloton are over. sastre won last year due to team work and tactics and that's how i see it going again.

This post has been edited by T_S_A_R: 01 July 2009 - 20:41

[Mr. Brightside]

Lets not delude ourselves here, Mark Cavendish will not finish Le Tour De France.

[Steve McQueen]

Sermani, on Jun 30 2009, 11:47, said:

But every year the event seems to get spoiled by drug cheats. Someone gets caught, then the French Police raid hotels, teams withdrawn. Just seems to tarnish the whole event.

The only way to get the sport clean is by catching the cheats. If you think that spoils it then fair enough.



Sastre to win back to back Tours.

This years will not be decided till the day before Paris!

[FC_1919]

Has anyone ever won in Paris by going on a breakaway? Or is that frowned upon?

[SJ1210]

FC_1919, on Jul 2 2009, 10:27, said:

Has anyone ever won in Paris by going on a breakaway? Or is that frowned upon?

Closest thing to a breakaway win was in 2005 when Alexander Vinokourov won.

Its not frowned upon really as there will be multiple attempts every year, problem is the difficulty in succeeding. The Champs-Elysees circuit is not ideal for a solo breakaway due to the long straights and the speed that the bunch can reach is far greater to that of an individual.

[Desert Nomad]

SJ1210, on Jul 2 2009, 10:55, said:

Closest thing to a breakaway win was in 2005 when Alexander Vinokourov won.

Its not frowned upon really as there will be multiple attempts every year, problem is the difficulty in succeeding. The Champs-Elysees circuit is not ideal for a solo breakaway due to the long straights and the speed that the bunch can reach is far greater to that of an individual.

Did Zootemelk not go on a ridiculous attack against Hinault back in the late 70s/early 80s? This resulted in Hinault actually winning the Champs-Elysees stage! Obviously Lemond overturned the deficit on Fignon in 89, but that was an ITT.

[Desert Nomad]

Mr. Brightside, on Jul 2 2009, 00:51, said:

Lets not delude ourselves here, Mark Cavendish will not finish Le Tour De France.

and why not? Robbie McEwen seems to think he`s favourite for the green jersey.

Steve McQueen, on Jul 2 2009, 09:07, said:

The only way to get the sport clean is by catching the cheats. If you think that spoils it then fair enough.



Sastre to win back to back Tours.

This years will not be decided till the day before Paris!

get out & back him then, you`ll get 20/1 in places

[Niall Wallace]

Desert Nomad, on Jul 2 2009, 18:11, said:

and why not? Robbie McEwen seems to think he`s favourite for the green jersey.

Aye but McEwen drags him self over the hills most years, usually with a fair few broken bones and next to bugger all skin left.

Cav keeps withdrawing because other things are his priority, he still races on the velodrome so where McEwen can lose a bit of bulk to help him over the hills, Cav can't really.

The hills on the tour aren't as bad as on the Giro though and with no olympics in the way he might just give the hills a shot.

[Mr. Brightside]

That's why ^

[SJ1210]

Niall Wallace, on Jul 2 2009, 23:20, said:

Aye but McEwen drags him self over the hills most years, usually with a fair few broken bones and next to bugger all skin left.

Cav keeps withdrawing because other things are his priority, he still races on the velodrome so where McEwen can lose a bit of bulk to help him over the hills, Cav can't really.

The hills on the tour aren't as bad as on the Giro though and with no olympics in the way he might just give the hills a shot.

Cavendish has stated his priorities are in road racing and the reason he left the Giro early was so he could tackle the mountains in france. If Magnus Backstedt can haul his 94kg frame over the moutains i'm sure Cav can get his 69 kg ass over the mountains, infact not much of a difference between Cav and McEwan with Cav only being 2kg heavier than McEwan.

[Desert Nomad]

Niall Wallace, on Jul 2 2009, 23:20, said:

Aye but McEwen drags him self over the hills most years, usually with a fair few broken bones and next to bugger all skin left.

Cav keeps withdrawing because other things are his priority, he still races on the velodrome so where McEwen can lose a bit of bulk to help him over the hills, Cav can't really.

The hills on the tour aren't as bad as on the Giro though and with no olympics in the way he might just give the hills a shot.

yeah I think Cav will try to get over the mountains. Bear in mind this is only his 2nd Tour, so to say he keeps withdrawing is a bit premature, unless you refer to him withdrawing from the Giro. But to a rider like Cav their is huge prestige to finishing the Tour compared with the Giro, especially if he can win the final stage with the whole world watching.

[SJ1210]

Tom Boonen has won his appeal and will be allowed to ride.

[Desert Nomad]

Fantastic ride from Cancellara to win in Monaco. Astana placing 4 riders in the top 10, will be interesting to see how team tactics play out in the coming stages. Contador looked good going up the hill, with only Cancellara`s power on the downhill stetch preventing him taking yellow.

[Super Ally]

How long does the tour de france go on for?